Superfecta keys: Play these 5 on Saturday at Ellis and Belmont

These five races at Ellis and Belmont parks on Saturday meet the criteria I've established for using the superfecta-key betting strategy.

Ellis Park

Race 7

This seven furlong optional claimer on dirt for 3-year-olds and up attracted a field of 12, including two runners who have new trainers and one runner coming in off a very long layoff.

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Ten runners exit dirt races – eight at Churchill, one at Belmont and one at Hawthorne – with the final two runners coming out of synthetic races at Turfway.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and one in four at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one of every 10 tries for races that show. The pace should be moderate to fast with the advantage to runners coming from off-the-pace.

The Mark Casse trained no. 11 Bron and Brow has not tested the distance and brings a balanced pressing style off nine top-four finishes in his last 10 tries, primarily on dirt but also on synthetic. This hard-hitting gelding should be keyed at odds of 4-1.

No. 3 The Queens Jules is a solid runner who has two wins, a second and third in four tries at the distance. Prior to a ninth place finish last time out on synthetic, this guy reeled off eight consecutive top three finishes across dirt, turf and synthetic. He fits in the superfecta at odds of 20-1.

The off-the-claim Norm Casse trained no. 10 Gulfstream Way is consistent at the distance, with a first, second and third in four tries, and has tactical speed that should make him a solid factor throughout. He is 12-1.

No. 7 Trafalgar turns back to a sprint off 10 consecutive routes and ran second in his one try at this distance on debut. He also has four wins and a second in 11 tries overall. He will be moving late at odds of 10-1.

The Dallas Stewart trained no. 6 Hoist the Gold comes in out of five consecutive graded events and is an underlay at even money. He will be in the mix at the end, but comes into with just two wins in 20 starts but a record of three seconds and two thirds at the distance in five tries.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 11 with 3, 6, 7 and 10. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 9

The Wise Dan Stakes (G2) is a 1 1/16 mile turf event for 4-year-olds and up that attracted a field of 10.

Nine runners exit Churchill Downs turf races, with the final runner coming out of an Oaklawn dirt sprint.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and two of three at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call in two of every nine tries for races that show. The pace should be moderate with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

The Ken McPeek trained no. 3 Camp Hope figures from just off the lead and boasts six in the money finishes from 10 turf starts. McPeek typically excels with dirt runners but he appears to have a solid turf horse here and he is your key horse at odds of 5-1.

No. 1 Harlan Estate has run especially well his last two tries for small stable trainer Whitworth Beckman and brings a record of six in-the-money finishes in 12 total turf tries. He is a grinder who fits here off those last two tries at Churchill and is 10-1.

Trainer Robert Medina does not have a large stable but seems to be gathering some momentum. He sends out no. 5 Play Action Pass, who has a very solid four wins, three thirds and one fourth in 10 turf tries. He is a very live runner here at odds of 12-1.

No. 10 Hozier spent most of his career on dirt but seems to have found a home on turf, with four top-four finishes from six turf tries in his last eight starts. One of those turf efforts was off a layoff where he ran extremely fast early and dropped off significantly late. He should be a factor throughout at odds of 15-1.

No. 8 Set Piece for Brad Cox is going to be odds-on. The late-runner often has to navigate through traffic to get there but has managed to win 12 times from 27 total starts. He is a risky proposition to win given the probable pace scenario but has to be included given his competition.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 3 with 1, 5, 8 and 10. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 11

The Tepin Stakes is a one mile turf event for 3-year-old fillies that attracted a field of nine, including one trying turf for the first time and another trying a turf route for the first time.

Seven runners exit turf races – five at Churchill Downs and one each at Penn National and Horseshoe Indianapolis – with the final runners coming out of dirt races at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Churchill.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of two in three starts overall and is three of four at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call six times in 53 total starts. The pace should be moderate with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

No. 2 Safeen has never run a bad race in five lifetime starts, all on turf, showing two wins, a second and two thirds. Three of those tries have come at today's distance. She has closed, been right off the lead, and is very tractable. This runner is your key at 5-1.

No. 6 Metaphysical has three second place finishes in five turf starts, four of them at this distance. She has the ability to pass runners and does not have the lead at the second call in races. She should be a midstretch factor and her odds are 20-1.

No. 7 Girl Named Charlie has come from way off the pace and been on pace in her turf tries. She shows two wins and a third from her five turf starts, including one win in her lone try at the distance. This tractable runner is 6-1.

Phil Bauer has a very good runner with no. 5 Xigera, who had issues in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) last fall but shows two first and one second place finish in three other turf tries. She is very solid here at odds of 2- 1.

Cox trains no. 3 Heavenly Sunday, who boasts three wins and two thirds in five lifetime turf tries and comes out of three consecutive graded events. She is 5-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 2 with 3, 5, 6 and 7. Total wager: $9.60.

Belmont Park

Race 7

Nine runners face off in this one mile allowance race on dirt for 3-year-olds and up, including two runners who have new trainers.

All runners exit dirt races, seven at Belmont and one each at Belterra and Churchill.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and two of three at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call four times in 75 total starts. The pace should be slow with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

No. 4 Daddy Knows is 21 of 38 overall and 11 of 15 at the distance for trainer Ray Handel, his fourth trainer in his last 10 starts. Handel has saddled this speedy runner to three wins in four tries, including two at this distance. He is your key runner at 4-1.

No. 5 Twelth Man does not win much and has very long drives coming from off the pace. But he does have eight top four finishes in his last 10 starts, all sprints. He also sports an 11 of 17 in-the-money record. This runner has not hit the board in two tries at a mile but he fits today with only a slightly faster than anticipated pace. He is 12-1.

Mike Maker saddles no. 7 Barese, who has the best body of work in the field considering that he has met some very tough runners in his career while collecting wins and placings in state-bred stakes competition. This 4-year-old comes in off a couple of subpar runs but has a lot to offer with nine placings in 13 lifetime starts. He is 8-1, which looks like an overlay.

The Rudy Rodriguez runner no. 3 Brew Pub has shown slight improvement in his new trainer’s barn in his last two starts. He should be pressing throughout coming into this, with two seconds and two thirds at the distance in eight tries. He is 9-2.

No. 1 Bad to the Bones is five of seven overall on dirt, with a second and third in two tries at the distance. This runner makes his third start for Bill Mott, who saddled him to a second and third at this or a similar distance. He is 3-1.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 4 with 1, 3, 5 and 7. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 8

A full field of 12 allowance horses will line up for this 1 1/16-mile race on the Belmont turf course. These 3-year-olds and up include two trained by Carlos Martin and three coming in off claims. Two of the latter are trying turf for the first time.

Nine runners exit turf races – seven at Belmont and one each at Pimlico and Gulfstream – with the final three runners coming out of two Churchill dirt races and one Belmont dirt event.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and at the distance.

Runners have combined for the lead at the second call in one of every seven starts for races that show. The pace should be moderate with those runners coming from midpack or off the pace having an advantage.

Chad Brown runners seem to always have something in reserve and no. 5 Forwardly is going to be one of those runners moving late This pace-pressing runner, who has a two of three in-the-money record at the distance without a win is making his first start at 4 and is likely to improve off his previous efforts. He's your key at odds of 5-1.

No. 11 More Than Work is five of six on turf including one win. His pace- pressing style ensures he will be in the mix, and that coupled with his ability to pass horses places him squarely in this race late at overlay odds of 12-1.

The Barclay Tagg trained no. 6 Shinsun showed nice improvement in his first try as a 4-year-old off a lengthy layoff. This runner has finished in the money in two of five on the turf with one win and should be moving late at odds of 8-1.

Martin also saddles no. 12 Kingfish Stevens, who was last seen in a minor stakes on Preakness day at Pimlico, where he finished a solid fourth. He looks like a grinder who figures to pass runners at generous odds of 8-1.

Rick Dutrow Jr., who has a seven of 12 in the money record since returning to training, saddles no. 2 Timbuktu. The son of Munnings sports a five of eight turf record and is four of six at the distance, including two wins. He should be passing runners late at 7-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 5 with 2, 6, 11 and 12. Total wager: $9.60.

Why play superfectas?

For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be over bet in the superfecta pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.

This is why a 10 cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top four positions.

The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key one runner essentially boxing it with four to seven other runners.

Superfecta key wagering savings

There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a straight box of any sort makes little sense.

The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of those top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.

The conditions are:

• Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12.

• The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.

• Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly.