Superfecta keys: Play these 5 at Saratoga and Del Mar

These Saturday races at Saratoga and Del Mar meet the criteria I've established for using the superfecta-key betting strategy.  

Saratoga

Race 5

This seven furlong state-bred allowance race for 3-year-olds and up attracted a field of 10 including two trained by Horacio De Paz with one of his runners making his 3-year-old debut. Runners exiting dirt races include three at Belmont, two at Aqueduct and one each at Finger Lakes, Monmouth and Penn National with the final two coming out of Belmont turf races.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and two of three at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one of every six tries for races that show. The pace show be faster than indicated by those second call figures because all but one runner in the field shows some very close to the pace runs which should lead to a very pressured pace with the advantage to off the lead runners.

Linda Rice is having a fantastic meeting and year and saddles no. 5 Safalow’s Mission who has logged only one win in 14 starts along with four seconds and four thirds. He comes out of five consecutive routes and should be grinding away late and is your key runner at 4-1.

No. 10 Straight Arrow has two six furlong tries at Monmouth and won his second start coming from off-the-pace after fading to fifth on debut. He will be a factor late at odds of 15-1 for Mike Dini.

One of the De Paz entries inside runner no. 1 Quick to Accuse makes his 3-year-old debut wiring the field at a mile in his one win and has also shown the ability to pass runners in other tries. He should improve here and is 8-1.

No. 3 Two for Charging is the one true closer in the field and his three in-the-money finishes are all in sprint races with his two off-the-board runs in routes. He will close a lot of ground late and is 5-1.

The Chad Brown trained no. 2 Asymmetric has not run a bad race in four starts with one placing in each of the top four slots across those events all at shorter distances. He should be full of run late and is 7-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 5 with 1, 2, 3 and 10. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 7

A field of nine has been entered in the Lure Stakes a 1 1/16 inner turf event for 4-year-olds and up who have not won a graded sweepstakes in 2023. All runners exit turf races include three each at Belmont and Monmouth with one each Ellis, Laurel and The Curragh (Ireland).

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in six starts for races that show. The pace should be moderate with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

The Brown trained no. 1 Portfolio Company is a close to the pace grinder who shows eight in-the-money finishes in 12 lifetime starts and has been on the lead along with coming from off-the-pace demonstrating the ability to be tractable. He is your key runner at 7-2.

No. 9 Mid Day Image trained by David Jacobson is likely to be on the lead and shows five wins and a second in eight tries at the distance along with a solid two of every three start in-the-money record. He is a dangerous runner if uncontested and is 15-1.

A wild card is the Irish runner no. 6 Chazzesmee who has improved in his last three starts all in his 5-year-old season with two wins and a second in three tries across turf and synthetic. He finished off-the-board in six prior tries across those surfaces and is 12-1.

No. 5 Speaking Scout trained by Graham Motion comes out of six consecutive graded events and shows a win, a second and two thirds along with one other close finish in those tries. He has met the toughest competition in the field and should be part of the mix late at 9-2.

The Danny Gargan trained no. 3 Dakota Gold has finished in the top four nine of his last ten tries and is always part of the mix with an overall record of eight in-the-money finishes in 11 starts. He is 5-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 1 with 3, 5, 6, and 9. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 9

The Saratoga Derby Invitational (G1) is a 1 3/16-mile turf  exclusively for 3-year-olds and this year a field of nine has been entered including three trying a marathon for the first time. All runners exit turf races including six at Belmont and one each at Royal Ascot, The Curragh and Pimlico.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of three in four starts overall and one of two at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one of every 10 starts. The pace should be slow with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

The Brown trained no. 2 Program Trading is going to improve with the added distance and comes into this as one of three never contesting a marathon winning both his starts across Belmont and Monmouth this year without a try as a 2-year-old. He should be close to or on the lead and is your key runner at 7-2.

The win posted by no. 9 Truly Quality in a maiden race last time out at a marathon distance followed two second place runs at shorter distances. This runner is facing much tougher but is a close to the pace runner trained by Jonathan Thomas and is dangerous with any kind of improvement at odds of 12-1.

No. 3 Aspen Grove won a graded marathon event at Belmont coming from out of it cutting into a very slow pace. A repeat of that slow pace scenario is unlikely which will move this runner up for trainer James Stack. Expect him to make a visually impressive move late at odds of 12-1.

No. 6 Webslinger for Mark Casse is a true grinding closer only finishing worse than fourth one time in 10 lifetime tries. He will be moving late but may not ever get there and is 4-1.

The Todd Pletcher trained no. 5 Far Bridge sports three wins and two seconds in five lifetime starts and comes out of a win in a graded stakes at a similar distance. He is the likely favorite but will have to pass runners to notch his second graded win.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 2 with 3, 5, 6 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 11

This seven-furlong allowance race contested on the dirt for 3-year-olds and up attracted a field of 10 including two trained by Shug McGaughey with both making their 3-year-old debut. All runners exit dirt races including four at Belmont, three at Saratoga and one each at Gulfstream, Ellis and Aqueduct.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and two of three at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in every 13 starts for races that show. The pace should be slow with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

Brown trainee no. 5 Frat Pack has not run on a fast track encountering off surfaces in his two tries showing a win and third in those two 6.5 furlong sprint outings. He wired the field in his win and passed horses on debut demonstrating some tractability and is your key runner at 9-2.

No. 4 Bad to the Bones is five for eight on dirt and is a grinder trying the distance for the first time. This Bill Mott trainee figures to pick up some pieces in the stretch with something in reserve at odds of 15-1.

No. 2 Signator for McGaughey is making his first 3-year-old start after logging a second place finish in a sprint and a win at a mile in his only two starts last year. Expect improvement for this runner coming from off the pace at odds of 6-1.

The runner with the most experience is no. 10 Caramel Chip who has logged nine consecutive in-the-money finishes and figures to be part of the mix down the stretch coming from just off the pace. He is 7-2.

Brad Cox trains no. 7 Everso Mischievous who shows three starts with two seconds and a first with the win in a sloppy seven furlong event. He will be tough here at low odds.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 5 with 2, 4, 7 and 10. Total wager: $9.60.

Del Mar

Race 9

The California Dreamin’ Stakes contested at 1 1/16 on turf is a state bred stake for 3-year-olds and up with a field of 10 entered including two trained by Peter Miller. Runners exiting turf races include five at Santa Anita and one at Golden Gate. Two entrants come out of Los Alamitos Race Course dirt races with the final two runners exiting a Pleasanton dirt races and a Golden Gate synthetic event.  

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in every five starts for races that show. The pace should be fast with the advantage to runners coming from off the pace.

One of the Miller runners is no. 10 Indian Peak who comes out of three consecutive 6.5 furlong turf dashes, can pass horses, and will be a part of the mix down the stretch showing a second and third in four tries at the distance and a formidable closing punch. He is your key runner at 5-1.

No. 1 Royal’n Rando has logged a win and second in five turf starts and is 11 of 19 overall racing primarily on synthetic over the course of his career. He will be a strong stretch factor at odds of 15-1.

The Jeff Mullins trainee no. 8 Bally’s Charm has never finished worse than fourth in eight lifetime tries all on turf. He is a very hard hitting middle distance turf runner and will be part of the mix throughout at odds of 8-1.

Trainer Dean Pederson does well with a small stable and his closing runner no. 5 Carmelita’s Man has the right running style to have his presence felt late coming into this with a 15 of 25 record on turf with seven wins. He is 4-1.

John Sadler sends out the probable favorite no. 6 Kings River Knight who can win from on or off the pace and is five of six on turf with four wins. He will be very competitive just off the lead and tough to beat.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 10 with 1, 5, 6 and 8. Total wager: $9.60.

Why play superfectas?

For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be over bet in the superfecta pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.

This is why a 10 cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top four positions.

The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key one runner essentially boxing it with four to seven other runners.

Superfecta key wagering savings

There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a straight box of any sort makes little sense.

The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of those top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.

The conditions are:

Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12.

The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.

Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly.