Superfecta keys: Play these 5 at Keeneland, Aqueduct, more

These Saturday races at Keeneland, Aqueduct and Santa Anita meet the criteria I've established for using the superfecta-key betting strategy.

Keeneland

Race 9

The Breeders’ Futurity (G1) is a 1 1/16 dirt race for 2-year-olds and has attracted a field of nine, including two each trained by Ken McPeek and Brad Cox and four trying a route of ground for the first time. All runners exit dirt races, five at Saratoga and two each at Ellis and Churchill.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of two in three starts overall. Only one runner has tried the distance and that one start resulted in a win.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one of every three tries out of less than 30 total starts combined. The pace is likely to be fast given the number of starters stretching out, the age of participants and the speed that many have shown.

No. 1 The Wine Steward is three for three in sprints at three different tracks and tries a route for the first time. He was just off the lead in his sprints and projects to be right there late as your key runner at odds of 8-1.

One of the McPeek runners with route experience is no. 6 Generous Tipper, who ran both on the lead for a win and off the pace for a second in his two dirt tries at a mile after a spotty debut on turf. The tractability of the runner along with a trainer who focuses on routes make him a solid player at 15-1.

One of the Cox runners is no. 2 Timberlake, who stretches out after an off the board debut, a maiden-breaking score at seven furlongs on the lead at Ellis and a strong second in a graded stakes at the same distance. He is going to be a stretch factor at 7-2.

The other Cox runner, no. 3 Awesome Road, is the only runner in the field with a single start, a maiden victory. He raced just off the lead in that six furlong race at Ellis and should relish the added distance. He is 3-1.

No. 9 Locked is going to take a lot of money after a strong second on debut in a six furlong sprint and an open length win at a mile, both at Saratoga.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 1 with 2, 3, 6 and 9 Total wager: $9.60.

Race 10

The Turf Mile (G1) is a one mile turf event for 3-year-olds and up. A field of nine has been entered, including two trained by Todd Pletcher. All runners exit turf races - five at Kentucky Downs and one each at Belmont, Colonial Downs, Woodbine and Goodwood in England.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and two of three at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one of every seven tries for races that show. The pace should be moderate with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

Pletcher saddles no. 9 Annapolis, a runner with 12 turf starts resulting in six wins, four seconds and two off-the-board runs. He is a very reliable middle of the pack runner and is your key horse at 6-1.

No. 6 English Bee, trained by Graham Motion, is slightly slower than most of his competitors, as evidenced by a single win from his last 10 races. Six of those were top-four finishes, though, and he runs the same race every time. He figures to be a factor for most of the race and can land in the top four at odds of 30-1.

Pletcher also saddles no. 5 Up to the Mark, who is nine of 10 in terms of top-four finishes. His five turf starts after five dirt tries have resulted in four wins along with a solid third. He should come from off pace and is a solid player at 5-2.

Cox saddles no. 4 Set Piece, who tends to weave in and out of traffic and figure a way to win, with 13 victories from 29 starts along and five more in-the-money runs. He is a valid player even though he tends to lag and make very impressive late moves. His odds are 5-1.

Charlie Appleby has the likely favorite in no. 1 Master of The Seas, who comes out of a win in the Woodbine Mile (G1) and sports a record of seven wins in 14 tries along with two seconds and two thirds. The Woodbine win followed a solid win at Royal Ascot at the same distance also in a graded stakes. He is 2-1.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 9 with 1, 4, 5 and 6 Total wager: $9.60.

Aqueduct

Race 9

The Jockey Club Derby (G3), a 1 3/8 turf marathon for 3-year-olds, attracted nine runners, including three trained by Pletcher, one trying turf for the first time and another trying a marathon for the first time.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of two in three starts  with only one runner ever trying the distance, resulting in a victory.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call in one of every 10 starts. The pace should be slow with the advantage to those on or near the lead.

No. 3 Webslinger, trained by Mark Casse, seems to get better with every race. He has never really run a poor race on turf and has finished in the top four in eight of his 11 races, including four wins. He will have to pass horses but is extremely fast late and is your key runner at 7-2.

One Pletcher runner, no. 8 Lost Ark, is trying a marathon for the first time after a third place finish in a turf route following six prior starts all on dirt that resulted in three wins. He should be forwardly placed and that provides a solid advantage in a slower-paced race than he has experienced. He is 15-1.

Pletcher also saddles no. 4 Fearless Soldier, who should be near the lead. He has two wins and a second in four turf tries and has shown improvement with additional distance. He has won on the lead and from off the pace and is 8-1.

No. 9 Mondego, trained by Christophe Clement, has tactical speed and shows only one poor effort in seven turf tries, a race where he experienced gate issues. He comes into this race with two wins, a second, a third and two fourth place runs and should be close to the pace. He is 10-1.

Appleby sends out no. 1 Measured Time, a winner of three consecutive starts in Britain: two mile runs at Kempton Park on synthetic and a Newmarket turf run in a marathon race. The combination of the trainer and his undefeated record make him a solid runner here at 2-1.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 3 with 1, 4, 8 and 9 Total wager: $9.60.

Santa Anita

Race 3

The Chandelier (G2) is a 1 1/16 dirt stake for 2-year-old fillies and has attracted a field of 10, including two trained by Doug O’Neill. Nine runners exit dirt races – eight at Del Mar and one at Saratoga – with the final runner coming out of a Del Mar turf race. Of note: Only two runners have contested a route – one on dirt and one on turf – with the remaining eight trying a route for the first time.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall with none trying this distance across 21 lifetime tries.

None of the runners has held a lead at the second call in those runs. That makes the pace largely unpredictable, especially given the second call, and the age of runners. That unpredictability should be advantageous to those runners who position themselves well early in the race.

John Shirreffs sends out no. 6 Gate to Paradise for her third start after a pair of 5 1/2 furlong and seven furlong sprints at Del Mar. She finished third in both efforts, running balanced races each time, and will be a solid stretch player at 5-1 as your key runner.

No. 3 Pacific Rose, one of the O’Neill runners, finished seventh in her debut on turf, then came back in a 5 1/2-furlong dirt race in which she ran evenly while finishing fourth. The second start suggests she will be a factor late at odds of 20-1.

No. 1 Chatalas, saddled by Mark Glatt, is going to be right off the lead coming out of the same two races as no. 1 Gate to Paradise. She came from off pace for a win at 5 1/2 furlongs after a fourth place run behind a runaway winner at seven furlongs and should improve with the distance at odds of 4-1.

Pletcher rarely ships out to California, but he sends no. 2 Scalable across the country after a fifth-place finish on debut at Saratoga in an even effort. She should be behind the front runners with a lot in reserve at odds of 5-1.

High percentage trainer Peter Eurton sends out no. 8 Laurent, who won on debut at 5 1/2 furlongs, then came back to be a solid second in a graded stake at seven furlongs. She is going to have to pass runners late based upon her two runs. She is 5- 2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 6 with 1, 2, 3 and 8 Total wager: $9.60.

Race 7

This 6 1/2-furlong claimer on dirt attracted a full field of 12, including two each trained by George Papaprodromou and Rafael DeLeon and two coming in off claims in the last races. Eight runners exit dirt races - five at Del Mar and three at Los Alamitos – with the final four runners exiting Del Mar turf runs.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of two in five starts overall and is one in three at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one of every seven starts for races that show. The pace should be moderate with the advantage to midpack runners.

Glatt sends out no. 7 Elevado, whom he claimed last out, for his first try at the distance. His first nine tries all sprints across dirt, turf and synthetic resulted in two wins and a fourth. He is a midpack runner who can pass horses and is your key runner at 5-1.

No. 2 Brazenly runs for Daniel Azcarate, who runs very few horses. But Brazenly does fit here, with a three in 10 record across turf, dirt and synthetic and one off-the-board run at the distance. He looks fast enough to be a player late at odds of 20-1, which look like an overlay.

One of the Papaprodromou runners is no. 5 Relaxed Artist, who can pass horses and makes only his third start on dirt after two sprints where he won and ran fifth. Those efforts came after nine turf runs. He will be a strong late factor at 20-1.

One of the DeLeon runners, no. 10 Egomaniac, comes out of 10  straight routes across dirt, turf and synthetic. He comes into this with a six in 12 in-the-money record and will be a very strong stretch factor at odds of 12-1.

No. 9 Bag’s Gold is one of five runners who have tried the distance, resulting in one second place finish out of two tries. His six dirt tries resulted in four top-four finishes and his midpack running style puts him in the mix at 3-1.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 7 with 2, 5, 9 and 10 Total wager: $9.60.

Why play superfectas?

For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be over bet in the superfecta pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.

This is why a 10 cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top four positions.

The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key one runner essentially boxing it with four to seven other runners.

Superfecta key wagering savings

There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a straight box of any sort makes little sense.

The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of those top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.

The conditions are:

Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12.

The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.

Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly.