Superfecta keys: Play these 4 verticals at 3 tracks on Saturday

These Saturday races at Belmont, Ellis and Monmouth meet the criteria I've established for using the superfecta-key betting strategy.

Ellis Park

Race 9

The Chorleywood Overnight Stakes is a 1 1/4 mile turf race for 4-year-olds and up and drew a field of nine, including three trained by Mike Maker.

All runners come out of turf races – eight at Churchill Downs and one at Horseshoe Indianapolis. Three runners are trying a marathon distance for the first time.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and is three of five at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call five times in 85 total tries for races that show. The pace should be slow with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

No. 4 Vivar is trying a marathon for the first time and projects to be a key player here with the additional distance. This runner has shown solid improvement in his last two tries, is seven-for-14 in the money overall on turf and should be moving late. At odds of 10-1, he is your key runner.

No. 1 Hidden Stash is going to be on or near the lead and is trying a marathon for the first time. He may have a huge advantage with a much slower pace than in his shorter route tries and his solid six of eight in-the-money record on turf helps. He is 15-1.

One of the Maker runners is no. 7 Bay Street Money, who owns a 10 of 17 in-the-money record on turf. He should be pressing throughout and be a factor late at odds of 5-1.

Four different trainers have saddled the hard hitter no. 2 Therapist across his last 10 starts, helping him compile a lifetime record of 23 of 39 on turf. This runner is a deep closer but is simply too tough to ignore at odds of 3-1.

Small stable trainer Conor Murphy sends out no. 6 Foreign Relations for his third consecutive turf marathon. He comes into this event off two consecutive solid efforts at 1 1/2 miles over two different turf courses, including a win. He is proven at long distances and prior to those efforts shows a win on synthetic at 1 1/4 mile and is the likely betting favorite.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 4 with 1, 2, 6 and 7. Total wager: $9.60.

Belmont Park

Race 10

This six furlong claimer on the inner turf for fillies and mares 4-year-olds and up attracted a field of 12, including two trained by Rudy Rodriguez and one runner being saddled by a new trainer.

Seven runners exit dirt races – five at Belmont and two at Aqueduct. Five exit turf races – three at Belmont and one each at Saratoga and Aqueduct.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in three starts overall and seven of 15 at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead one of every five starts for races that show. The pace should be solid with the advantage to runners coming from off-the-pace.

No. 1 Rum Runner Ready has tried turf three times, with one win at today’s distance coming from off-the-pace. Trainer Bill Morey has been having a very solid 2023 and that adds to this runner’s favorability here at odds of 5-1 as your key runner.

No. 11 Devilly has six checks in nine lifetime turf starts but only one win in 20 lifetime starts. She fits with these in a superfecta scenario though and should be passing runners in the stretch at odds of 12-1.

No. 4 Mostly Harmless is always passing horses and has finished in the top four in eight of her last 10 tries across turf and dirt. She is similar to no. 11 Devilly, with only one win in 23 starts, but she is always tries. Her odds are 8-1.

The runner in a new barn is no. 8 Smokin’ Hot Kitty, who has three of nine in-the- money record on turf. This runner also can pass horses. She fits well here at odds of 4-1.

One of the Rodriguez runners is no. 6 Quick Power Nap, who has four turf sprints on her record, resulting in two wins, a second and a third. She looks very competitive here at 7-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 1 with 4, 6, 8 and 11. Total wager: $9.60.

Monmouth Park

Race 5

A full field of 12 will face off in this 1 1/16 maiden claimer on the turf for fillies and mares 3-year-olds and up, including two trained by Mike Dini along and another saddled by a new trainer.

Ten runners exit turf races – seven at Monmouth, two at Belmont and one at Laurel – with the final two runners coming out of dirt races at Monmouth and Belmont.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in four starts overall and one in five at the distance.

Runners have combined for the lead at the second call six times in 74 total starts for races that show. Those runners on or near the lead should have an advantage.

The runner being saddled by new trainer Carlos David is no. 7 Welcometomyworld, who has a pace pressing style and was beaten less than four lengths in two tries at Aqueduct at a similar distance. David has a very solid record with new runners and that makes her competitive here at odds of 4-1 as your key runner.

No. 12 Hurry Up Dear is tied for the most starts in the field with 16 and has finished in the money in nearly half of them, aross turf and dirt starts. She fits with these at odds of 15-1 and should be a factor late.

One of the Dini runners is no. 10 Mo Town Annie, who failed to hit the board on debut and in her second start both dirt sprints. She followed those starts with a second on the Tampa turf at a mile and also collected a second at Monmouth on the dirt at a similar distance. In both instances she was within two lengths of the lead at the second call. She should be right there late at odds of 8-1.

No. 5 Dixie Groove comes from off the pace, but his trainer Carlos Perez has been in the money six of eight starts at Monmouth and has four top four finishes in five tries with this runner. She will be part of the mix late at odds of 6-1.

No. 2 What’s Good has three top-four finishes in four turf tries and strong early speed. She is very dangerous on or near the lead and is 7-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 7 with 2, 5, 10 and 12. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 12

The Salvator Mile (G3) for 3-year-olds and up contested at one mile on dirt has attracted a field of 10.

Eight runners exit dirt races – two each at Belmont, Gulfstream and Parx along with one each at Churchill and Keeneland. The final two runners come out of turf races at Belmont and Churchill.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and two of three at the distance.

The runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in every four tries for races that show. The pace should be swift with the advantage to closers.

No. 4 Far Mo Power has been in the money in 12 of 14 starts and the two out-of-the-money runs were fifth- and fourth-place finishes. He is going to have some closing punch and looks like an overlay as your key runner at 10-1.

No. 10 Bourbonic appears a little slower than the competition, but has won three of four at the distance and the race sets up for his patented closing move to be part of the superfecta. He is 10-1.

No. 1 Petulante is lightly raced and has compiled a record of three wins and two seconds in five lifetime tries. He has upside and will be close to but not on the lead making his third starts as a 4-year-old. He is 9-2.

Although no. 8 Nimitz Class is speedy, he does have wins from off the pace and should be doing that here. His record of 10 wins in 16 lifetime starts is impressive and he is 7-2.

The Chad Brown trained no. 9 Artorius is making his first start as a 4-year-old, but that should be of no concern for this runner who just missed on debut and has a trainer who always has his runners ready. Expect improvement for this entrant who comes from off the pace with four top finishes in five lifetime starts at odds of 3-1.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 4 with 1, 8, 9 and 10. Total wager: $9.60.

Why play superfectas?

For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be over bet in the superfecta pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.

This is why a 10 cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top four positions.

The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key one runner essentially boxing it with four to seven other runners.

Superfecta key wagering savings

There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a straight box of any sort makes little sense.

The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of those top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.

The conditions are:

• Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12.

• The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.

• Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly.