Superfecta keys: Play these 4 tickets at Keeneland, Aqueduct

These Saturday races at Keeneland and Aqueduct meet the criteria I've established for using the superfecta-key betting strategy.

Keeneland

Race 5

The Commonwealth Stakes (G3), contested at seven furlongs on the dirt, attracted 10 runners 4 years old and up, including two trained by Dallas Stewart.

Eight runners exit dirt races - three each at Oaklawn and Fair Grounds, one each at Aqueduct and Santa Anita - while two come in out of synthetic races at Turfway Park.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in every two starts overall and three of four at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call four times in 90 total starts for races that show. I expect a slow pace with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

One of the Stewart runners is No. 1 Hoist the Gold, who figures to grind his way to a top four finish as he has done in eight of his last nine tries. He has a three for three in-the-money record at the distance without a win and is your key runner at odds of 8-1.

No. 8 Pro Oxidant has the most upside potential in the field as he makes his second start as a 4-year-old in his first graded stake. He has three wins in five tries – all sprints – sandwiched around two lesser performances both late in his 3-year-old season, when he finished fourth at a mile and a troubled firth in a sprint. He is 12-1.

The pace is not to the advantage of No. 3 Get Her Number, but the closer is likely to pass midpack fading runners to gain a placing. Trainer Peter Miller enters this horse across turf and dirt, sprints and routes, and the horse is three for four in the money at the distance. His odds are 4-1.

Bret Calhoun trains No. 7 Run Classic, who has finished worse than fourth only once in nine lifetime starts. Among those runs, this hard-hitting grinder has three sprint tries, resulting in two wins and a second. One of those wins was at the about distance of seven furlongs at Keeneland. He will be a big factor at 3-1.

Perennial leading trainer Wesley Ward saddles the likely favorite No. 2 Nakatomi, who has finished in the top four in all nine of his dirt sprints and has three wins at Keeneland. He is a must-include.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 1 with 2, 3, 7 and 8. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 6

A field of nine 3-year-old fillies are entered in the Appalachian Stakes (G2) at one mile on the turf, including two trained by Todd Pletcher.

All runners come out of turf races – three at Gulfstream, two at Keeneland and one each at Churchill, Tampa Bay, Oaklawn and Fair Grounds.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of three in four starts overall and eight of nine at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in seven starts for races that show. The pace should be slow with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

The fact that these are 3-year-olds, with three making their seasonal debuts, make this race a very wide open event.

No. 6 Be Your Best is making her 3-year-old debut and logged two wins and a third in three starts prior to encountering some trouble in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf at Keeneland. She looks like a grinder who should be a few lengths off the lead and is your key runner at 8-1.

Mark Casse sends out no. 2 Papilio for her second stateside run after five starts in Ireland, where she compiled two wins and one second from five turf tries. Her debut in the U.S. was a strong second in a slow-paced race. She should improve at odds of 6-1.

Todd Pletcher sends out No. 5 Alpha Bella, who has stayed on the turf in her last three tries after three starts on the dirt. She is 9-2.

Pletcher also saddles the runner with the most experience in the field, No. 3 Cairo Consort. She has been in the money eight of nine lifetime starts and finished fourth in her off-the-board run. She is the likely favorite.

Shug McGaughey saddles No. 7 Pleasant Passage, who is making her first start as a 3-year-old coming out of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf, where she finished a solid second after logging two wins including a graded stake. She showed versatility winning on the lead in one try and came from off-pace in the other win and is 5-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 6 with 2, 3, 5 and 7. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 9

The Blue Grass Stakes (G1) for 3-year-olds at 1 1/8 on the dirt attracted a field of 11, including three trained by Ken McPeek and two trained by Ben Colebrook.

Ten runners exit dirt races - three at Oaklawn, two each at Aqueduct and Tampa Bay, and one each at Fair Grounds, Laurel and Gulfstream Park - with the final runner coming out of a race over the synthetic surface at Turfway Park.

The field has combined for an in-the-money record of two in three starts overall and one runner has started at the distance, finishing second. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in eight starts. The pace should be fast and given the timing of the race and points on the road to the Derby that are available more speed than anticipated may be displayed.

McPeek saddles No. 7 Sun Thunder who has run creditably in all five of his tries finishing in each of the first five positions once in each of those tries. He has a closing punch and is a strong player coming late as your key runner at odds of 10- 1.

McPeek also saddles No. 5 Hayes Strike, who looks underrated here after running solidly on dirt in seven of eight tries following a marginal debut. He has six top four finishes across those tries and should be moving late at odds of 15-1.

Colebrook sends out No. 10 Raise Cain who failed to show much on debut but has run solidly on dirt since, with two wins, a second and a  third sandwiched around an off-the-board finish on synthetic. He is 9-2.

No. 4 Classic Car Wash, trained by Mark Casse, has been in the money his last four tries: an off-pace win on dirt, a front-running score on synthetic followed by a third and second in graded stakes. He has shown the ability to pass runners and should be a solid stretch factor at odds of 12-1.

No. 1 Tapit Trice is the logical favorite after running third on debut and reeling off three wins, including the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) last time out. He should make up a lot of ground late coming from off the pace for trainer Todd Pletcher.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 7 with 1, 4, 5 and 10. Total wager: $9.60.

Aqueduct

Race 11

The Wood Memorial (G2) for 3-year-olds at 1 1/8 miles on the dirt attracted a field of 12, including three trained by Pletcher and two each trained by Brad Cox and Saffie Joseph Jr..

All runners exit dirt races – five at Aqueduct, four at Gulfstream and one each at Tampa Bay, Fair Grounds and Laurel.

The field has combined for an in-the-money record of two in three starts overall and is seven for eight at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in eight starts. Similar to the Blue Grass Stakes, the pace should be fast and given the timing of the race and points on the road to the Derby that are available more speed than anticipated may be displayed.

Pletcher sends out No. 9 Crupi, still a maiden but a solid player here. The colt ran second or third in his first five starts, including three at Aqueduct, before a poor performance in a graded stake a race where he made up ground late but was soundly beaten. He will be closing into the speed late and is your key runner at 12-1.

The Cox runner No. 5 Slip Mahoney is a tractable runner who has finished in the top four in each of his tries and is one of two in the field who have raced exclusively at Aqueduct. Similar to the runners faring well in the Gotham (G3) last time out, he closed a lot of ground late and prior to that was on the lead at the second call. This tractability should suit him well at odds of 6-1.

Bill Mott saddles No. 2 Shadow Dragon who will be making his third start at Aqueduct, where he did not fare well in two tries before shifting to Gulfstream Park, where he showed substantial improvement as a 3-year-old. He is 12-1.

No. 1 Dreamlike, also trained by Pletcher, is still a maiden like his stablemate Crupi. He sports two close second place finishes, however, both at Gulfstream at shorter distances. He does have speed and has not been on the lead in either start which should work to his advantage off an anticipated hot pace. His odds are 7-2.

Cox also saddles No. 13 Hit Show, who has three wins and a fourth from four tries on different dirt surfaces. He should be a strong factor throughout at odds of 5-2 and is the likely favorite.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 9 with 1, 2, 5 and 13. Total wager: $9.60.

Why play superfectas?

For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be over bet in the superfecta pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.

This is why a 10 cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top four positions.

The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key one runner essentially boxing it with four to seven other runners.

Superfecta key wagering savings

There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a straight box of any sort makes little sense.

The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of those top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.

The conditions are:

Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12.

The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.

Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly.