Superfecta keys: Play these 4 stakes at Gulfstream

These Saturday races at Gulfstream meet the criteria I've established for using the superfecta-key betting strategy.  

Race 10

The Gulfstream Park Mile (G2) on the dirt for 4-year-olds and up attracted a field of nine including one runner trying a dirt route for the first time.  All runners exit dirt races including eight at Gulfstream and one at Churchill. The field has combined for an in-the-money record of two in three starts overall and at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in six times for races that show. I anticipate a moderate pace with the advantage to runners forwardly placed.

No. 1 Dean Delivers has a solid 10 of 11 in-the-money record at Gulfstream, has demonstrated success at a mile with a second and third in three tries and has tactical not need to lead speed. He is your key runner at 12-1.

No. 3 Noble Drama is the most likely to pass horses very late and gain a placing in the superfecta. A pace that is faster than anticipated moves him up substantially off a solid seven wins in 15 tries at the distance along with a second and two thirds. With this upside potential he is worth including at 20-1.

Mike Maker saddles No. 6 Endorsed, a classic grinder who likes the Gulfstream surface with a solid seven of eight in-the-money record.  He comes off two consecutive Gulfstream wins and figures to run another solid one at odds of 4-1.

The runner trying a route of ground for the first time is No. 9 Nitrous Channel racing exclusively in Gulfstream sprints his four prior starts with two wins and two seconds. He should be well placed early and projects to be a factor throughout at odds of 8-1.

The Todd Pletcher trained No. 7 Charge It is making only his second start since last July and came back with a solid optional claimer Gulfstream tune-up at 1 1/16 miles earlier in the meet. He is very tough here, has two wins and two seconds in four tries at Gulfstream, and will be the favorite.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 1 with 3, 6, 7 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 11

The Honey Fox Stakes (G3) for fillies and mares 4-year-olds and up contested at one mile on the turf attracted a field of 11 including two trained by Chad Brown. One lone runner exits a synthetic race at Gulfstream and the majority of the field exits turf races including six at Gulfstream, two at Aqueduct and one each at Fairgrounds and Belmont. The field has combined for an in-the-money record of three in five starts overall and two in three at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in eight starts for races that show. The pace should be moderate with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

No. 1 Faith in Humanity makes her 4-year-old debut for Brown and brings in a two win and one second place record in three tries as a 3-year-old at today’s or a similar distance across three different turf surfaces. She should improve and is your key runner at 5-1.

Carlo Vaccarezza has been doing extremely well at the Gulfstream meet and No. 11 Sweet Dani Girl is making only her second start on turf coming out of a win in a state-bred stake at this track and distance in January. She has upside potential and should be tracking the speed at odds of 15-1.

The Brian Lynch trained No. 10 Fast as Flight is a very consistent top four finisher with a 10 for 11 record. She is a grinder and looks like an overlay at 12-1.

Bill Mott sends out No. 4 White Frost, a lightly raced 5-year-old mare with three wins and a third on turf including two mile wins in two tries at Gulfstream. She should continue to perform well at Gulfstream at odds of 7-2.

The highly-priced 6-year-old mare No. 3 Speak of the Devil, the other Brown runner, makes her third start and her first since last June after starting out in Europe. Her overall record of 11 for 16 in the money make her a solid player here at underlay odds.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 1 with 3, 4, 10 and 11. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 12

The Davona Dale Stakes (G2) for 3-year-old fillies at one mile on the dirt attracted a field of 10 including two trained by Chad Brown with three runners trying a dirt route for the first time. All runners come out of dirt races including seven at Gulfstream, two at Tampa Bay and one at Keeneland. The field has combined for an in-the-money record of three in four starts overall and a perfect eight of eight at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in five times. The pace should be very fast with the advantage to closers.

Solid local trainer Carlos David saddles No. 7 Lynx, who is five for five at Gulfstream with three wins, a second and third. This runner is the most likely to close into very fast fractions and is your key runner at odds of 12-1.

Todd Pletcher trains No. 1 Atomically for her third try after changing barns. Her comeback race at Gulfstream was solid after a poor performance in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1). She has two wins and two thirds at Gulfstream in four tries and looks like an overlay at 8-1.

No. 10 Leave No Trace was last seen finishing second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) and has never finished off the board for Phil Serpe who is winless at Gulfstream this meeting. She should be part of the mix despite the poor trainer record and her odds are 5-1.

One of the Brown runners is who is also stretching out for the first time is No. 5 Undervalued Asset who projects to be as fast as any of the entries in the field closing from off the pace showing a win and a second in two dirt sprint tries. She is 3-1.

Rusty Arnold saddles another stretch out runner No. 3 Red Carpet Ready with a similar running style to No. 5 Undervalued Asset coming out of the same Gulfstream seven furlong stakes. She will be the likely favorite at post time and projects to be very fast at the distance.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 7 with 1, 3, 5 and 10. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 14

The Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) for 3-year-olds contested at 1 1/16 on the dirt attracted a field of 10 including two trained by Bill Mott with two runners trying a dirt route for the first time. All runners exit dirt races including eight at Gulfstream and two at Keeneland. The field has combined for an in-the-money record of two in three starts overall and one in two at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in five starts. I anticipate a fast pace with the advantage to off-pace runners.

No. 1 General Jim for Shug McGaughey has run a total of six times equally on dirt and turf posting three wins and two thirds with one fourth-place finish. His last two runs both at Gulfstream on dirt resulted in a win and a fourth at shorter distances. He will be a solid stretch factor coming off the pace and is your key runner at 6-1.

Mott saddles a true closer in No. 3 Shadow Dragon who will be trailing early and if there is any more pace pressure than I anticipate he will move up even more coming in with a first and second in three tries at odds of 12-1.

One of the two runners trying a route of ground for the first time is No. 7 Mage for local trainer Gustavo Delgado. This runner made every pole a winning one on debut and ran fast enough to risk his inclusion if he can relax on or near the lead and be there late. His odds are 8-1.

Brown sends out No. 6 Blazing Sevens the likely second betting choice who ran fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) last time out. Expect improvement in his first try as a 3-year-old for this runner trying Gulfstream for the first time coming in off a two win in four start record with a third and fourth sandwiched around those runs. He is 7-2.

The overwhelming favorite at post time is going to be No. 4 Forte for Todd Pletcher the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) winner who has yet to try the Gulfstream surface. He boasts a four of five win record with a fourth place finish in his other start. He looks very strong here but does face some new faces who might improve enough to challenge him especially as he tries the surface for the first time.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 1 with 3, 4, 6 and 7. Total wager: $9.60.

Why play superfectas?

For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be over bet in the superfecta pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.

This is why a 10 cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top four positions.

The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key one runner essentially boxing it with four to seven other runners.

Superfecta key wagering savings

There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a straight box of any sort makes little sense.

The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of those top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.

The conditions are:

• Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12.

• The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.

• Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly.