Superfecta keys: Play 4 races at Aqueduct, Churchill Downs

These Saturday races at Aqueduct and Churchill meet the criteria I've established for using the superfecta-key betting strategy.

Aqueduct

Race 4

Nine runners have been entered in the Notebook Stakes at six furlongs on dirt for 2-year-old state-breds, including two who have new trainers and one trying a sprint on dirt for the first time. Eight runners exit dirt races - six at Aqueduct and one each at Delaware and Pimlico - with the final runner coming out of an Aqueduct turf run.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of two in three starts overall and is three of four at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in every three starts. The pace should be solid with the advantage to runners coming from off the pace.

No. 2 Bonne Chance debuted at Saratoga at six furlongs, winning easily from off the pace. He encountered off-tracks and was well beaten in his next two starts at longer distances in state-bred stakes. The distance and pace suit this runner today at odds of 6-1 as your key runner.

No. 5 Wine Responsibility tries a dirt sprint for the first time. This Linda Rice trainee broke his maiden at a mile on a sloppy surface after an out-of-the-money turf debut and came back in a state-bred stake also on an off-track, finishing an inconsequential fourth. He should be a stretch factor at odds of 6-1.

Rob Atras sends out no. 7 Perliano for his fifth start after a maiden score at seven furlongs in the slop. He can pass horses and did that twice in his four tries, including one on turf, and that gives him an opportunity here at odds of 10-1.

Trainer Joseph Lee has a very small stable. His runner no. 6 Works for Me is extremely fast out of the gate and comes out of third place finish in a turf sprint following a good performance in a small field open company stake in which he ran second. He has never finished worse than fourth in five lifetime starts and is a key player at 5-2.

Trainer George Weaver, who is having a very good year, saddles no. 3 Aggelos the Great, a runner who has never finished worse than third in four tries overall and who broke his maiden in his second start at this distance. He is a very solid slightly off the lead runner at odds of 2-1.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 2 with 3, 5, 6 and 7 Total wager: $9.60.

Race 5

The Grade 2 Hill Prince Stakes, a 1 1/8-mile turf race for 3-year-olds and this year a field of nine has been assembled, including three trained by Chad Brown. Seven exit turf races - three at Aqueduct and one each at Tampa Bay, Colonial Downs, Kentucky Downs and Laurel Park - with the final two runners coming out dirt races at Aqueduct.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of three in five starts overall and two of three at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call four times in 52 total starts. The advantage should be to runners on or near the lead.

No. 8 I’m Very Busy, one of Brown's entrants, is four of six on turf, has run exclusively in turf routes and stretches out slightly in this race. He may be moving powerfully late but not get there and is your key horse at 6-1.

Todd Pletcher sends out no. 9 Classic Catch, who tries turf for the first time after finishing in the money in six of nine starts on dirt. He is a grinder and if he takes to the turf should be a very strong late factor with a closing punch at odds of 8-1.

Brown also saddles no. 5 Faraday who comes out of two consecutive turf marathon wins at Kentucky Downs and Saratoga after an inconsequential debut at a shorter distance. He will have to pass horses late and looks like an overlay at 10-1.

The Brown runner no. 4 Equitize won is lone start at Tampa Bay at a slightly shorter distance. The connections coupled with the time of the year off one start suggest strong enough improvement for him to be a player here at 5-1.

Shug McGaughey sends out no. 3 Integration, who has two wins in two tries, including one at this distance. He will be the betting favorite and tough to beat but has to pass runners against an anticipated slow pace.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 8 with 3, 4, 5 and 9 Total wager: $9.60.

Race 10

A full field of 12 will face off in this allowance event for fillies and mares 3-year-olds and up contested at six furlongs on the dirt, including two trained by Rudy Rodriguez. Four come in off-the claim, with one of those runners trying a dirt sprint for the first time. Nine runners exit Aqueduct dirt races while two last ran in Aqueduct turf races and final runner coming out of a Saratoga dirt run.

The field has combined for an in the money rate of one in two starts overall and at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in four starts for races that show. The pace should be fast with the advantage to those just off the lead and closers.

No. 4 Icy Reply has finished in the money in nine of 14 races at the distance and has done so in five of six runs at Aqueduct. She is a pace pressing runner who should be part of the mix down the stretch at odds of 6-1 as your key runner.

No. 11 My Girl Jal won last time out at this course and distance for small stable trainer Ricardo Legall, who has had her for all but one of her 10 career starts. Her running style puts her in the mix and she has improved compared to earlier in the year in the Legall barn. Her odds are attractive at 15-1.

No 9 Proud Foot is new to the barn of Rick Dutrow Jr., her fourth trainer in her last nine starts. She comes out of a fourth place run at the distance and surface and boasts a seven of nine in-the-money record at the distance without a win. Dutrow has a solid record with first off the claim runners and her odds of 10-1 make her an attractive superfecta player.

No. 2 Bella Principessa has split her racing career between dirt and turf and has done slightly better on dirt, finishing in the mone in one of two starts. She has some closing punch and will be a late factor at odds of 8-1.

Rice sends out no. 5 She’s Awesome after claiming her off a win at 6 1/2 furlongs on this surface. Her record of one win and five seconds in  nine tries at the distance along with a stalking style make her a player at 7-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 4 with 2, 5, 9 and 11 Total wager: $9.60.

Churchill Downs

Race 10

The Grade 3 Chilukki Stakes, run at one mile on dirt for fillies and mares 3 years old and up, attracted a field of nine, including two trained by Chris Block. Six runners exit dirt races - three at Churchill and one each at Keeneland, Horseshoe Indianapolis and Aqueduct – while three come out of turf events – two at Keeneland and one at Hawthorne.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of two in three starts overall and at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one of every six starts for races that show. The pace should be slow with the advantage to those on or near the lead.

Pletcher sends out no. 7 Falconet, who is nine of 12 running exclusively on dirt. She also has two wins and a second in three tries at the distance. This runner should have a strong presence early as a just off-the-pace type at odds of 5-1 and is your key runner.

No. 1 Nostalgic, trained by Bill Mott, is eight of 12 overall on dirt and has faced some of the toughest competition in the field. She also has a win and second at the distance in two tries. She is a grinder and a solid player at odds of 9-2.

One of the two Block runners is no. 4 Oeuvre, who is trying a dirt route for the first time. This runner has been in the money in 19 of 22 tries, including 14 wins across turf and dirt. She also has tactical speed, and is a speedy but not need to lead player at 5-1 coming out of a mile victory on turf.

No. 9 Hot and Sultry has the fewest starts in the field and has never been worse than fourth in those eight starts, all on dirt. This runner is extremely reliable and a solid player at 7-2.

Solid Midwest trainer Bret Calhoun sends out the likely favorite, no. 3 Hidden Connection. She sports a solid nine of 15 in the money record all on dirt. She is an underlay at 5-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 7 with 1, 3, 4 and 9 Total wager: $9.60.

Why play superfectas?

For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be over bet in the superfecta pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.

This is why a 10 cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top four positions.

The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key one runner essentially boxing it with four to seven other runners.

Superfecta key wagering savings

There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a straight box of any sort makes little sense.

The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of those top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.

The conditions are:

Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12.

The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.

Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly.