Superfecta keys: Play these 4 races Saturday at Tampa Bay

These Saturday races at Tampa Bay meet the criteria I have established for using the superfecta-key betting strategy. 

Race 5

This seven-furlong handicap on the dirt for fillies and mares 4-years-old and up attracted a field of 11 including two each trained by Victoria Oliver and Gerald Bennett along with one runner who has a new trainer. Nine runners exit dirt races including three each at Gulfstream Pack and Tampa Bay and one each at Churchill, Keeneland and Laurel Park with the final two runners coming out of turf races at Tampa Bay and Churchill. The field has combined for an in-the-money record of three-in-five starts overall and two-of-three at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in six times for races that show. I anticipate a solid pace with the advantage to runners coming from mid-pack along with deep closers.

One of the Bennett entries is No. 5 Tap Dance Fever who has not finished worse than fourth in 10 consecutive tries coming out of seven consecutive route tries largely on dirt. She has tactical not need to lead speed and should be a strong stretch factor at odds of 5-1 as your key runner.

No. 1 Restofthestory is six-of-seven at the distance without a win, 10 for her last 10 in terms of top-four finishes and comes out of the very solid percentage Ed Plesa barn. She is 10-1.

Oliver sends out No. 4 Take a Stand who has nine top-four finishes in her last 10 tries and a similar running style to No. 4 Tap Dance Fever. Her grinding running style should be wearing down runners late with a three for three in the money record at the distance without a win. Her odds are 10-1.

No. 2 Sterling Silver comes out of five consecutive graded stakes including her last try in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint where she was sent off at long odds and was clearly overmatched. Prior to that event, she was in the top four in seven of her nine other lifetime tries. She is an off-pace runner but not a deep closer and may come up short but is certainly a solid superfecta player at odds of 4-1.

George Weaver saddles No. 7 Pass the Champagne, the runner with the least experience in the field, and six top-four finishes in seven starts with the lone off-the-board finish a Grade 1 stakes nearly two years ago as a 3-year-old. She is 3-1.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 5 with 1, 2, 4 and 7. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 7

The Columbia Stakes exclusively for 3-year-olds contested at one mile on the turf attracted a field of 10 including one runner stretching out to a turf route of ground for the first time. Seven runners exit turf races including four at Tampa Bay, two at Gulfstream and one Keeneland with two runners coming out dirt events at Churchill and Tampa Bay and the final lone entrant exiting a Presque Isle Downs synthetic event. The field has combined for an in-the-money record of one-in-two starts overall and at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in five starts. The pace should be moderate with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

Shug McGaughey sends out No. 10 Talk of the Nation for his second turf try coming off a convincing win in an optional claimer at Tampa Bay last time out on this same course. He looks fastest here and is your key runner at odds of 4-1 with his pace pressing style.

Small stable trainer Robert Smith does not win much but has been in the money better than half the time at Tampa Bay. No. 4 Naga’s Boy has two turf tries to his credit, his last wiring the field on the lead coming home in a fast final quarter. Prior to that start he showed some closing punch finishing fourth. His tractability make him a solid player here at odds of 30-1.

Mark Casse saddles No. 5 Lights on Broadway, who debuted on synthetic running three times with a fourth and two wins. When switched to turf he ran a solid second in an elongated sprint and then ran poorly in his first try as a 3-year-old at a slightly longer distance. This runner should improve at odds of 6-1.

Mike Maker trains No. 7 Worthington who sports two wins and two third-place finishes in four turf tries with both wins at a mile. He should be on or near the lead and is a strong superfecta player at odds of 9-2.

No. 9 Mo Stash for Oliver was last seen in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf where he finished a solid fourth following up three prior top-four finishes. This is his first start as a 3-year-old and anything comparable to his last try, plus only a slight improvement, puts him squarely in the center of this race at odds of 7-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 10 with 4, 5, 7 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 8

The Challenger Stakes (G3) for 4-year-olds and up at 1 1/16 on the dirt attracted a field of nine including two trained by Saffie Joseph Jr. Four runners come out of dirt races including two at Gulfstream and one each at Aqueduct and Churchill. Four runners exit turf races including two at Tampa Bay and one each at Keeneland and Gulfstream with the final runner coming out of a Gulfstream synthetic race. The field has combined for an in-the-money record of one-in-two starts overall and two-of-three at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in five times for races that show. The pace should be very fast with the advantage to closers.

No. 4 Classic Causeway has never been off the board in four tries at the distance with two wins along with a second and third. He comes out of 10 consecutive graded stakes on turf and dirt and while he does have speed, he can watch others drive the pace and make a strong stretch move. He is your key runner at odds of 9-2.

No. 9 Brooklyn Strong looks a notch below most of the runners in the field but is one of the few runners who can clearly pass horses. He has an overall record of greater than one in two tries in the money and will appreciate the anticipated fast pace after running in a dirt marathon and a longer dirt race last fall coming in off a layoff. He is trained by high percentage trainer Victor Barboza and is 30-1.

Oliver trains No. 1 Trademark, who is going to be well positioned to inherit a placing off a fast pace coming out of two straight wins at longer distances. He is 6-1.

No. 8 Business Model is a true closer and should have plenty of pace to chase. He does not look as fast as others in the field but should be passing horses late to inherit a placing even though his overall record is only slightly better than average for this field. His odds are 6-1.

The probable favorite is the Joseph-trained No. 2 Skippylongstocking who has faced the toughest competition in the field coming out of seven consecutive graded stakes showing two wins and a third in those tries. He is going to be an underlay but should have no trouble being part of the superfecta as the likely favorite.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 4 with 1, 2, 8 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 11

The Tampa Bay Derby (G3) for 3-year-olds contested at 1 1/16 on the dirt attracted a field of 12 including two each trained by Todd Pletcher, Casse and Joseph. All runners exit dirt races, including nine at Tampa Bay and three at Gulfstream. The field has combined for an in-the-money record of three-in-four starts overall and one-in-three at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in five starts. I anticipate a fast pace with the advantage to off-pace runners.

Bill Mott sends out No. 3 Classic Legacy, who finished fourth in a graded stakes last time out at Tampa Bay at this same distance. This followed two sprints finishing second and third after a relatively poor performance on debut. Expect improvement passing horses late as your key runner with odds of 6-1.

No. 7 Freedom Road shows four in-the-money finishes with two wins and his lone off-the-board effort was in the Sapling at Monmouth finishing fifth. He tried the Tampa Bay surface last time out passing horses late in a six furlong sprint. Expect the same here at odds of 15-1.

Eoin Harty has been having a solid meet and his runner No. 4 Groveland has a win, two seconds and a third on the Tampa Bay dirt surface. He does pass horses and looks to be very competitive here at odds of 6-1.

No. 2 Classic Car Wash ran well enough in his only start at Tampa Bay to finish third after winning on the lead on synthetic and coming from off the pace in a dirt sprint. This versatility of leading throughout on a surface that tends to favor runners coming from off pace along with a closing sprint win make him a very strong player here at odds of 8-1.

Pletcher saddles the probable favorite, the highly priced No. 6 Tapit Trice, who won by open lengths last try and has three tries at a mile on dirt showing two wins and a third. He will like the added distance coming from a tractable mid-pack position and is going to clearly be the post time favorite.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 3 with 2, 4, 6 and 7. Total wager: $9.60.

Why play superfectas?

For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be over bet in the superfecta pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.

This is why a 10 cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top four positions.

The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key one runner essentially boxing it with four to seven other runners.

Superfecta key wagering savings

There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a straight box of any sort makes little sense.

The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of those top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.

The conditions are:

• Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12.

• The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.

• Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly.