Superfecta keys: Play these 4 at Belmont, Horseshoe Indy

These Saturday races at Belmont and Horseshoe Indianapolis meet the criteria I've established for using the superfecta-key betting strategy.

Belmont Park

Race 6

This six-furlong allowance dash on the turf for state-bred fillies and mares 3-year-olds and up attracted a field of 11, including two Christophe Clement runners and two runners saddled by new trainers.

Nine exit turf races – eight at Belmont and one at Woodbine – with the final two runners exiting dirt races at Finger Lakes.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call in one of every eight tries for races that show. The pace should be moderate with the advantage to runners just off the lead.

No. 4 Royal Dancer has tactical speed and has hit the board in five of nine turf starts. Her only poor try was after a break between her 3- and 4-year-old seasons. In all of her other tries she has been within a few lengths of the winner except on debut. She is your key runner at 5-1.

Fernando Abreu saddles no. 5 Robyn and Eli, who has one win and three seconds in eight tries on turf and is coming in off the claim, where Abreu has a very solid one of two in-the-money record. More important, this runner has finished in the top four all of her turf sprints, including a win, while never finishing more than one length behind the winner. She is 20-1.

Trainer Jose Camejo has a runner in no. 6 Sikum, who has the most tries in the field at 17 and has posted two wins and three seconds in 10 turf tries. One of her second-place finishes was at this distance. She looks like a grinder and should be part of the mix late at odds of 8-1.

The Jorge Abreu trained runner no. 9 Weekend Rags has never been out of the money in five lifetime tries across dirt and turf, with a first and third in two turf sprints including a the win at this distance. She is a strong contender at 5-2.

One of the Clement runners is no. 10 Loon Cry, who has logged four in- the-money finishes, including two on turf. She also has won at a longer distance and run second at today’s distance. She should improve and is 3-1.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 4 with 5, 6, 9 and 10. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 8

The Belmont Oaks Invitational Stakes (G1) is a 1 1/4 inner turf event for 3-year-old fillies. This year’s edition attracted a field of nine, including two each trained by Chad Brown and Graham Motion.

Seven of the nine runners are trying a turf marathon for the first time. All runners exit turf races including three each at Belmont and Churchill Downs, with one apiece exiting events at Pimlico, Curragh (Ireland) and Saint Cloud (France).

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of three in five starts overall with no runner having tried this particular distance.

The runners have combined for a lead at the second call two times in 34 starts for races that show, which suggests a slow pace even though many are trying a marathon for the first time.

Brown saddles no. 7 Aspray who is undefeated in three tries, including two turf wins. This is her first marathon event. The trainer factor looms large, with the added distance and pressing style of this runner making her your key at 6-1.

No. 6 Be Your Best is another runner stretching out to a marathon for the first time. She sports two wins and and has finished in the money in four of her six turf races for trainer Horacio De Paz. She looks like an overlay at 10-1.

The other Brown runner is no. 5 Prerequisite, who has a fourth and two wins in three lifetime starts. This runner wired the field in a graded event at 1 1/8 miles on the turf  after coming from off pace in her prior two tries. She is tractable and should be a factor throughout at odds of 5-1.

The Mark Casse trained no. 4 Papilio is another marathon first-timer. This one began her career in Ireland and has added distance progressively while logging three wins and three seconds from nine lifetime starts. She is another tractable runner who knows how to pass her competitors and is 4-1.

One of the Motion runners is no. 1 Mission of Joy, who tries 1 1/4 miles for the first time after four wins and a third in her prior five turf starts, including two graded-stakes wins. She has a pace-pressing, balanced style and is the likely favorite.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 7 with 1, 4, 5 and 6. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 10

The Belmont Derby Invitational (G1) is a 1 1/4 inner turf event for 3-year-olds that attracted a field of 11, including two each trained by Mark Casse and Chad Brown.

Eight runners are trying a turf marathon for the first time. All runners exit turf races including six at Belmont, two at Churchill and one each at Santa Anita, Monmouth and Epsom Downs.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of three in four starts overall and one runner has contested the distance and was a winner.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call in one in every five starts.

The pace should be solid and somewhat predictable even though there are so many first-time marathon runners, since three runners or more in the field look like they want to be near the lead. That should provide an advantage to those runners coming from off the pace.

No. 4 Webslinger, one of the Casse runners, is seven of eight on turf, with four wins. His lone blemish was an off-the-board finish in the Breeder’s Cup Juvenile Turf (G1). His running style is visually impressive and he should be there late as your key runner with odds of 9-2 in his first marathon try.

The Brown trained no. 10 Redistricting is making only his second start after breaking his maiden on debut in a turf route in impressive fashion. He will be flying late in this first marathon try and is 8-1.

Charlie Appleby is always a factor in the U.S. and his entry of no. 6 Silver Knott, who finished third in his U.S. debut last time out from off the pace, should continue his record of success. Silver Knot is another trying to add a 1 1/4-mile win to his resume and should be a huge factor late at odds of 6-1.

The Todd Pletcher trained no. 5 Far Bridge has logged two wins and two seconds in four lifetime turf tries, all at shorter non-marathon distances. He is another who will be moving late at odds of 4-1.

No. 11 The Foxes is trained by Andrew Balding, who has had five winners from 33 starters in North America. This colt has contested a marathon distance and comes out of four consecutive group races in Europe where he logged two wins and a second before having some trouble in the Epsom Derby. He is a very strong contender here at odds of 7-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 4 with 5, 6, 10 and 11. Total wager: $9.60.

Horseshoe Indianapolis

Race 12

Nine 3-year-old runners will face off in the Indiana Derby (G3), including one runner trying a route for the first time.

Two runners have tried the Horseshoe Indianapolis surface once and both were winning efforts. Eight runners exit dirt races – three at Ellis Park, two at Horseshoe Indianapolis and one each at Lone Star, Thistledown and Churchill - with the final runner coming out of a turf race at Hawthorne.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and two of three at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call four times in 75 starts for races that show. The pace should be slow with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

No. 8 Cagliostro, trained by Cherie DeVaux, is a strong contender here even as closer. He shows a win and two seconds in three starts and his off-the-board efforts were in a sprint on debut and a marathon graded stakes where he had some early trouble. His debut in a sprint was a pace-pressing effort at seven furlongs and he has been in the top four at the second call in four of five starts. He is your key runner at 8-1.

The lightly raced no. 1 Transect, saddled by Paulo Lobo, has tested the surface, wiring the field in his last out at a mile. He demonstrated tractability in his debut at 6 1/2 furlongs on synthetic, winning from off pace and has won three of four starts. His one off-the-board effort was in a graded stake in the slop. He should be a factor throughout at 15-1.

No. 2 Raise Cain comes out of four straight graded stakes with a win and fourth in non-fast track efforts, along with two off-the-board finishes, including one in the Kentucky Derby. He doesn’t have gate speed but does have a very balanced running style and looks fast enough to be part of the mix at odds of 10-1.

No. 7 Hayes Strike, trained by Ken McPeek, has the most runs in the field with 12. He is four of seven at the distance, including a couple of wins. He has rarely been a factor early but in this field is a late contender at odds of 3-1.

No. 5 Verifying trained by Brad Cox is going to take a lot of money as the favorite, coming into this with two wins and three seconds in eight lifetime starts. He just missed in the Matt Winn (G3) at Churchill last time out at a slightly longer distance. His three off-the-board finishes were in the Kentucky Derby, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and the Rebel (G3), the latter two at this distance.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 8 with 1, 2, 5 and 7. Total wager: $9.60.

Why play superfectas?

For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be over bet in the superfecta pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.

This is why a 10 cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top four positions.

The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key one runner essentially boxing it with four to seven other runners.

Superfecta key wagering savings

There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a straight box of any sort makes little sense.

The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of those top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.

The conditions are:

Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12.

The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.

Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly.