Superfecta keys: Play these 4 exotics at Saratoga, Monmouth

These Saturday races at Saratoga and Monmouth meet the criteria I've established for using the superfecta-key betting strategy.  

Saratoga

Race 4

This one-mile dirt claimer for 3-year-olds and up non-winners of two lifetime attracted a field of nine including one runner coming in off-the-claim. Seven runners exit dirt races including four at Belmont and one each at Churchill, Delaware and Finger Lakes with the final two runners coming out of turf races at Saratoga and Belmont.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in three starts overall and two of five at the distance. The runners have combined for a lead at the second call four time in 83 total tries for races that show which should provide an advantage to runners on or near the lead.

Jim Toner has a small stable these days but has excellent numbers and he saddles one of the runners with the most upside potential in no. 3 Husband Material who has logged three in-the-money finishes in six dirt tries. His tactical speed and record make him your key runner at 9-2.

The Mark Hennig barn has done well early at this meet and sends out a runner who broke its maiden last try in his fourth dirt attempt in no. 4 Break the Ice. He was on or near the lead early and opened up late and looks like an overlay at 15-1.

No. 8 Winning Connection is six of eight on dirt, seems to run to his competition, and is a grinder. His odds are 5-1.

The Steve Asmussen trained no. 6 Inspector is the runner with the fewest tries in the field with five and one in-the-money finish. He is going to be near but not on the lead and is 4-1.

No. 1 Chileno trained by Linda Rice who boasts very strong numbers lately is going to be very tough here even against this field of non-winners of two lifetime with six in-the-money finishes in 16 dirt tries and a pace pressing style. He is 2-1.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 3 with 1, 4, 6 and 8. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 11

This six-furlong claimer on the dirt for 4-year-olds and up attracted a field of 13 including one entry trained by Linda Rice and includes three runners coming in off-the-claim including one of the Rice runners. Entrants exiting dirt races include five at Belmont, two at Ellis and one each at Delaware, Aqueduct, Laurel, Monmouth and Churchill with the final runner coming out of a Belmont turf race.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and two of five at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in four starts for races that show. The pace should be very fast with the advantage to off pace runners and deep closers.

No. 4 Just Call Ray tries the distance for the first time and comes into this off three consecutive route tries which include a first and second after posting a win at seven furlongs. He will be passing tiring runner late and is your key runner at odds of 8-1.

No. 9 Prince James is handled by low percentage trainer Gustavo Rodriguez who does improve off-the claim and this runner is coming in under those circumstances with a running style that grinds past his opposition late. He has five in-the-money finishes at the distance in seven tries and is 15-1.

The David Jacobson trained no. 7 Senor Jobim has 16 in-the-money finishes in 26 tries at the distance and is always passing runners to get there. Expect that today at odds of 8-1.

No. 12 Scilly Cat is a true closer and his last effort was a return to his form of earlier this year after a very poor effort on turf after a brief layoff. He is 10 of 19 overall at the distance and figures to be very impressive late at odds of 6-1.

Both parts of the Linda Rice entry have tactical speed with no. 1 Catchyasoon the more dominant of the two who is dangerous if uncontested and no. 1a Flint Ridge more likely to be just off the lead. Both runners have identical three win for six try records at the distance. They are 7-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 4 with 1 / 1a, 7, 9, and 12. Total wager: $9.60.

Monmouth Park

Race 9

The Wolf Hill Stakes is an about-5 1/2-furlong turf event for 3-year-olds and up and this year’s rendition attracted a field of ten including one coming in off-the-claim.  Nine runners exit turf races including five at Monmouth, two at Laurel and one each at Gulfstream and Belmont with the last runner coming out of a dirt race at Laurel.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and three of four at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call two in every five starts for races that show. The pace should be solid with the advantage to mid pack runners and closers.

Small stable trainer McLane Hendriks saddles no. 5 Witty. He is a true closer who has one turf sprint try to his credit where he finished a solid second coming from off the pace. He will have plenty to run at in this event and is your key runner at odds of 9-2.

Joe Orseno has been having a very solid meet with a limited number of starters and his runner no. 1 Eamonn has one win in one try at the distance and is always passing runners late. His turf record boasts six wins and three seconds in 19 lifetime tries and his odds are 10-1.

The David Jacobson trained no. 2 Mid Day Image has logged two wins and a third since joining the barn all in turf sprints. He does have not need to lead type speed and is 4-1.

No. 4 Belgrano is not particularly fast and has the most turf tries in the field with 42 and he has come away with a solid record of 24 win, place or show finishes. He should grind his way to a solid showing at odds of 5-1.

No. 7 Nothing Better is the speed of the speed, is by far the fastest runner in the field and should clear early and last as long as he can with a solid 15 of 22 overall turf record. He is dangerous compared to other gate speed runners and is 3-1.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 5 with 1, 2, 4 and 7. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 11

The United Nations Stakes (G1) is a 1 3/8-mile turf marathon for 3-year-olds and up and a field of 10 has been entered including three trained by Mike Maker along with one runner trying a marathon for the first time. The entire field exits turf races including two each at Ellis, Belmont, Monmouth and Churchill and one each at Santa Anita and Laurel.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and two of five at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call four times in 86 total starts. The pace should be slow with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

No. 3 Catnip is the only runner in the field who has not tried a marathon distance and comes into this with four wins and a third in seven turf tries. This Michael Stidham trained runner should be pressing throughout and is your key runner at 4-1.

No. 7 Yamato is making his third start for the Maker barn and will be relatively close to the pace coming into this with nine top four finishes across turf and synthetic in his last ten starts. He looks like an overlay at 15-1.

The Shug McGaughey trained no. 5 Limited Liability has eight top three finishes in 10 turf tries seven of which have been graded events. He is not going to be near the lead but is too reliable to ignore for a top four finish at odds of 5-1.

The Richard Mandella trained no. 6 Planetario comes out of a graded-stakes win at 1 3/4-mile on turf. He has raced exclusively at Santa Anita after coming to the states from Brazil. He will be within striking distance throughout with graded wins in Brazil and in the U.S. and this runner is seven of 11 on turf with six wins. He is 3-1.

The always-there-late no. 9 Red Knight is going to be passing runners down the lane and is another runner who is dangerous to be part of the superfecta coming into this with 20 in-the-money finishes in 32 total turf tries as one of the Maker trainees at odds of 5-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 3 with 5, 6, 7 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.

Why play superfectas?

For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be over bet in the superfecta pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.

This is why a 10-cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top four positions.

The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key one runner essentially boxing it with four to seven other runners.

Superfecta key wagering savings

There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a straight box of any sort makes little sense.

The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of those top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.

The conditions are:

Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12.

The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.

Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly.