Superfecta keys: Play 4 exotics at Gulfstream, Santa Anita

These Saturday races at Gulfstream and Santa Anita meet the criteria I've established for using the superfecta-key betting strategy.  

Gulfstream

Race 6

This one-mile claimer on dirt for 4-year-olds and up attracted a field of nine. All runners exit races at Gulfstream including six on dirt and three on synthetic. One runner is trying dirt for the first time.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and two of three at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one of every seven starts for races that show. The pace should be slow with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

Jose D’Angelo has solid numbers and he saddles no. 1 Boldness who is five of eight at the distance with just one win and has a similar in-the-money percentage on dirt logging any distance. He changed hands four of his last 10 starts and should work his way to a solid finish at odds of 4-1 as your key runner.

No. 6 Watch the Music is trying dirt for the first time and brings a record of 11 for 21 across turf and synthetic with a grinding style. He figures to be part of the mix throughout with a closing punch and is an overlay at 20-1.

No. 3 Rhymes Like Dimes has changed hands seven of his last 10 starts and finished worse than fourth only one of those starts while also possessing tactical near the lead speed. Any horse at any level who can perform this well with that number of different trainers is a solid play and his odds are 6-1.

Solid percentage trainer Kelly Breen saddles no. 5 Toscanito who is four of six at the distance with two wins. He possesses solid early foot and may not look back if uncontested at odds of 7-2.

No. 8 Rod Two Rod is 12 of 17 in the money with six wins overall on dirt and shows a similar record at the distance making his second start for Holly Ferris formerly an assistant to New York based trainer Ray Handel. He is the 8-5 favorite.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 1 with 3, 5, 6 and 8 Total wager: $9.60.

Race 10

This seven furlong optional claimer on dirt attracted a field of nine. Eight runners exit dirt races including three at Gulfstream, and one each at Aqueduct, Laurel, Tampa Bay, Churchill and Saratoga with the final runner exiting a Turfway synthetic race.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of two in three starts overall and at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one of every four starts for races that show. The pace should be solid with the advantage to runners coming from off pace.

The hard-hitting no. 1 Baby Yoda has faced some very tough competition usually over his head for trainer Bill Mott and his record across the last 10 tries includes nine top-four finishes. His one misstep was at Charles Town, a true bull ring track, which is a toss-out. He is your key runner at 4-1.

Brendan Walsh sends out no. 7 Loyal Company who is two of three at the distance with a win. He has sandwiched six dirt tries around two synthetic runs at Turfway. He comes into this off one of those Turfway runs, which is a toss-out. He is 6-1.

Trainer Dale Romans has really improved his numbers the last two years and he sends out no. 8 Deer District who is a confirmed closer with an eight of nine record across dirt and turf. He will be moving late in his first try at the tricky distance of seven furlongs and is 9-2.

The inclusion of no. 2 Let It Ride trained by George Weaver is driven by this runner’s first three performances logging a second and two wins with one of those wins at the distance. His last try was in a stakes at Laurel and he was eased late in a six horse field finishing last. His odds are 7-2.

High percentage trainer Jorge Delgado sends out no. 5 Super Chow who has been in the money 14 of 15 starts and can be rated from off the pace or be on the engine. He is a solid contender here at 3-1.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 1 with 2, 5, 7 and 8 Total wager: $9.60.

Santa Anita

Race 7

Nine 3-year-old maiden fillies line up for this 1 1/8 turf race including three trained by Phil D’Amato and two each by Tim Yakteen and Michael McCarthy. All runners exit turf races including seven at Santa Anita and two at Del Mar.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in six starts overall and this is the first time any of these fillies have tried the distance. No runner has had the lead at the second call in a total of 24 starts. Speed should be an advantage given that circumstance.

One of the D’Amato runners is no. 3 Circle of Trust who comes out of a stake finishing off-the-board. She also has some early foot based upon her second start and that early advantage make her a player after three mile turf tries. She is your key runner at 3-1.

No. 5 Blue Fashion closed a lot of ground after a slow start to finish fourth in her only try a one mile turf effort. She is going to like the added distance and is a generous 15-1.

Carla Gaines has been having a subpar early meet at Santa Anita. Her runner no. 8 Ima Joker did finish a solid third last out and this improved effort off her two prior starts make her a contender at odds of 8-1.

No. 9 Americandreammaker is a McCarthy runner who had trouble in her only try at one mile and finished a solid fifth.  She will improve and is 4-1.

The Yakteen trained no. 1 Sea Dancer showed improvement in her last start running second throughout the race in her second try for Yakteen and fifth overall. She shows two seconds in five turf starts both in routes and is 7-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 3 with 1, 5, 8 and 9 Total wager: $9.60.

Race 9

Nine maiden 4- and 5-year-olds will face off in this one mile run on turf including two trained by Doug O’Neill and two saddled by new trainers. Runners exiting turf races include seven at Santa Anita and one at Del Mar with the final runner coming out of a dirt race at Del Mar.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in three starts overall and at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one of every 12 tries. The pace should be slow with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

The Librado Barocio runner no. 6 Quintecents has tactical speed and is six of 13 overall across dirt and turf. He never seems to run badly and has been beaten less than three lengths in eight of his last ten starts. He is your key runner at 6-1.

One of the O’Neill runners is no. 9 Player B who is only one of six on dirt but does have some tactical speed. That makes him a factor throughout at odds of 6-1.

The other O’Neill runner no. 1 Khantaro d’Oro is six of 10 overall across dirt and turf including an off-the-board finish in a graded stake as a maiden. He has flashed some good efforts at times and is 4-1.

Richard Mandella has been very hot early in this Santa Anita meeting and no. 5 Pioneer Prince comes out of a one mile dirt run finishing fifth after two 6 1/2-furlong turf sprints. He does have speed and anything close to his mile effort in a turf route will make him a win contender at odds of 4-1.

Peter Eurton has been having a great past couple of years and he saddles the speedy no. 4 Caribbean King who has logged six top four finishes in seven total starts all in turf routes. He is a strong contender at 7-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 6 with 1, 4, 5 and 9 Total wager: $9.60.

Why play superfectas?

For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be over bet in the superfecta pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.

This is why a 10 cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top four positions.

The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key one runner essentially boxing it with four to seven other runners.

Superfecta key wagering savings

There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a straight box of any sort makes little sense.

The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of those top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.

The conditions are:

Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12.

The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.

Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly.