Superfecta keys: Play these 4 combos Saturday at Fair Grounds

These Saturday races at Fair Grounds meet the criteria I've established for using the superfecta-key betting strategy.

Race 5

Nine 3-year old fillies up line up for this 1 1/16-mile optional claimer on dirt, including three stretching out to a route of ground for the first time.

Eight runners exit dirt races - six at Fairgrounds and one each at Oaklawn and Delta Downs - with the final runner exiting a Fair Grounds turf race.

The field has combined for an in-the-money record of one in two starts overall and one in four at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in 10 starts. The pace should be slow with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

No. 1 Miss Tappy Tone is one of the runners stretching out for the first time, coming in off a six furlong maiden claiming win at Fair Grounds. She projects to be right there at the end and her odds are 8-1 as your key runner.

No. 8 Sweet Alyssa followed her maiden victory at six furlongs with a very poor run next time out at today’s distance with both efforts at Fair Grounds. The pace was relatively slow and the winner won by eight lengths in that second try. Expect improvement this time out at odds of 12-1.

No. 2 Stellar Lady has finished in the top four in six of nine tries, including two turf runs. She ran poorly in a graded stake, ungraded stake and on synthetic. Trainer Ken McPeek has a useful runner who will be moving late at odds of 9-2 in her first Fair Grounds appearance.

Bret Calhoun trains No. 5 Bru Na Boinne, who has finished fourth or better in all five of her tries and looks very competitive here after finishing second at the same distance at Fair Grounds last time out after four sprints. She is 9-2.

Brad Cox saddles No. 6 Merlazza, another entry stretching out for the first time. She is very fast early, can pass runners and is going to be tough to beat at relatively short odds.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 1 with 2, 5, 6 and 8. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 8

A field of 10 fillies and mares 4-year-olds and up are entered in the Tom Benson Memorial Stakes at the distance of about 1 1/16 miles on the turf, including two trained by Chris Block.

Eight runners come out of turf races - four at Fair Grounds and one each at Colonial Downs, Tampa Bay, Kentucky Downs and Gulfstream - with the final two runners exiting dirt races at Fair Grounds and Sam Houston.

The field has combined for an in-the-money record of three in five starts overall and at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in seven starts for races that show. The pace should be slow with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

One of the Block runners is No. 8 She Can’t Sing, who has succeeded on both turf and dirt. She has a slightly better turf record overall, logging nine in-the-money finishes in 14 starts. She should track the speed and be a strong stretch factor at odds of 9-2 as your key runner.

The other Block runner, No. 3 Trail Ridge Road, is one of three 4-year-olds in the field and has never been off the board on turf except for one marathon. She has upside potential in her eighth career try and her odds are 12-1.

No. 9 New Year’s Eve is a closer but has logged two wins at the distance in two starts. She is making her 4-year-old debut and is reverting to a non-marathon turf run after three consecutive marathon tries. She will be moving late, but may run out of ground at odds of 5-1.

No. 6 Didia started her career in Argentina, notching three consecutive Group wins. She followed that with two wins at the brief Colonial Downs turf meeting in the summer of 2022 after a substantial layoff. She is a strong contender here at odds of 3-1.

The likely favorite is the Brad Cox trained No. 1 Adventuring, with seven top four finishes in her last 10 starts and a stalking near the lead style. She is a must include at relatively short odds.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 8 with 1, 3, 6 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 10

The Muniz Memorial Classic (G2) for 4-year-olds and up at about 1 1/8 miles on the turf attracted a field of 10.

All runners exit turf races - six at Fair Grounds, three at Sam Houston and one at Gulfstream. The field has combined for an in-the-money record of three in five starts overall and a two of three at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in nine times for races that show. The pace should be slow with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

No. 6 Two Emmys has the most natural speed in the field, a solid record of three wins in five tries at the distance along with a second-place finish, and is also eight of his last 10 in-the-money. He is your key runner at 3-1.

It took Brendan Walsh 10 dirt starts before he tried No. 2 Rising Empire on the turf and this 5-year-old has rewarded him with a first and second, both at Fair Grounds. He is most likely to improve and he is attractively priced at 20-1.

Bret Calhoun sends out No. 3 Gentle Soul, who has won three of his five tries at Fair Grounds along with a second-place finish. This grinder has reeled off six consecutive top four finishes, including four wins. He is 5-1.

No. 5 Spooky Channel has won nearly half of his 27 starts and tends to be near but not on the lead while invariably passing horses in the lane. He is a must include at odds of 9-2.

Mike Maker sends out No. 1 Atone, who has two wins in four tries at the distance along with a second-place finish. He also has nine top four finishes in his last 10 starts. He is difficult to dismiss at relatively short odds.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 1 with 2, 3, 9 and 10. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 12

The Louisiana Derby (G2) for 3-year-olds contested at 1 3/16 on the dirt attracted a field of 12, including three trained by Brad Cox and two  trained by Steve Asmussen and Ken McPeek.

All runners exit dirt races - eight at Fairgrounds, three at Oaklawn and one at Tampa Bay.

The field has combined for an in-the-money record of three in five starts overall and no runner has contested the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in eight starts. The unusual distance and the 3-year-old field competing in a significant road to the Kentucky Derby points race may create a pace scenario of more runners pushing for the lead earlier than past performances would indicate. As a result, I anticipate a moderate pace with the advantage midpack runners and closers.

McPeek trains No. 4 Sun Thunder, who has four top-four finishes in four tries. The colt is a closer and has been improving with each try coming into this race and likely needs more Derby points to qualify for the starting gate in Louisville. He is your key runner at odds of 5-1.

High percentage small stable trainer Neil Pessin saddles No. 12 Baseline Beater, who is the truest deep closer in the field. He, too, has improved with every try, including three progressively better Fair Grounds dirt races resulting in three top four placings. He should be rolling late at odds of 20-1.

One of the Asmussen runners is No. 5 Disarm, who makes his first start at Fair Grounds after three in-the-money finishes at three separate tracks. He is another who shows progressive improvement as the distances increased. His last try at a mile suggests he will have some late foot and continued improvement puts him in the mix at odds of 10-1.

The pricey Todd Pletcher runner No. 6 Kingsbarns is a bit of a wild card, coming in from two wins a maiden and optional claimer score at Gulfstream and Tampa Bay. He has a balanced running style and looks like a tractable runner who should be well placed at odds of 6-1.

Cox saddles a closer who will likely be the favorite, No. 2 Instant Coffee. Instate Coffee comes into this race with enough points that a solid effort - even something less than a win - should qualify him for a Derby slot. He comes into the race with three wins and a fourth and will almost certainly be an underlay.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 4 with 2, 5, 6 and 12. Total wager: $9.60.

Why play superfectas?

For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be overbet in the superfecta pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.

This is why a 10 cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top four positions.

The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key one runner essentially boxing it with four to seven other runners.

Superfecta key wagering savings

There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a straight box of any sort makes little sense.

The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of those top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.

The conditions are:

Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12.

The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.

Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly.