Superfecta keys: Play these 4 at Aqueduct, Gulfstream, Oaklawn

These Saturday races at Aqueduct, Oaklawn and Gulfstream meet the criteria I've established for using the superfecta-key betting strategy.

Aqueduct

Race 6

This seven-furlong state-bred allowance race on dirt for 3-year-olds and up attracted a field of 11 including two each trained by Chris Englehart, Horacio De Paz and Jeremiah Englehart along with two saddled by new trainers. Runners exiting dirt races include seven at Aqueduct and one at Finger Lakes with the final three runners coming out of Aqueduct turf races.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and two of three at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one of every seven starts for races that show. The pace should be slow with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

One of the Chris Englehart entrants is no. 3 Waralo who is trying the distance for the first time, runs balanced, and has reeled off nine straight top three finishes after an off-the-board finish on debut. He is your key runner and is 6-1.

The Brad Cox trained no. 5 Rocket and Roll comes out of a turf race but prior to that was in the money three of five starts on dirt including efforts at Keeneland and Oaklawn. He should be right off the lead and is 9-2.

One of the De Paz entries is no. 6 Amedeus Music who has the second most starts in the field and has hit the board only eight of 21 lifetime starts. He shows three in the money finishes in six tries since becoming part of the De Paz barn, looks improved and is 4-1.

The inclusion of the lightly raced Bill Mott trained no. 10 Kid Billy is a result of a two start career including a solid maiden-breaking score on debut and a complete toss out in his second start. The upside and odds of improvement in his third career try make him a player at 8-1.

No. 7 Locke and Key is an off-pace runner who has a win and third in two tries at the distance, runs balanced, has a grinding style and has been in the money all four of his recent dirt tries. He is 3-1.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 3 with 5, 6, 7 and 10 Total wager: $9.60.

Oaklawn

Race 3

This six-furlong dirt optional claimer for fillies and mares, 3-year-olds and up attracted a field of nine including one who has a new trainer. All runners exit dirt races including two each at Oaklawn, Horseshoe Indianapolis and Churchill with the final three coming out of events at Aqueduct, Belterra and Mahoning Valley.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of two in three starts overall and at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one of every five tries for races that show. The pace should be fast with the advantage to runners coming from off-pace.

No. 8 Summer Shoes shows four firsts, a second and third in six tries at the distance. She can pass horses and also shows tactical speed along with never being worse than fourth in eight lifetime tries including seven at Oaklawn. The odds are generous and she looks like an overlay as your key runner at 8-1.

Trainer Matt Williams doesn’t saddle many runners and his percentages are solid. No. 3 Lover Girl is six of eight overall and showed improvement in her last two starts at Churchill and Keeneland compared to prior efforts at Canterbury running third and fifth in those tries which make her a solid value play at 20-1.

No. 4 Dealing Justice is eight-for-12 at the distance with three wins and has demonstrated the ability to pass horses. That makes her a contender here at 6-1.

Trainer Larry Rivelli has some of the strongest numbers in the country and his entry of no. 5 Back to Ohio has eight wins and a second in nine lifetime tries including a four for four record at the distance. She is 7-2.

No. 7 Leeloo has raced primarily in New York against tougher opposition and sports a nine of 14 in-the-money record on dirt. She is 2-1.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 8 with 3, 4, 5 and 7 Total wager: $9.60.

Race 4

This six furlong dirt optional claimer for 3-year-olds and up attracted a field of nine. All runners exit dirt races including two at Churchill and one each at Keeneland, Fanduel, Delaware, Hawthorne, Del Mar, Fairgrounds and Horseshoe Indianapolis.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one of every seven tries for races that show. The pace should be moderate with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

McLean Robertson has a runner in no. 4 Runaway Jack who is has four wins and four seconds in eight lifetime starts at Delaware, Oaklawn and Hawthorne. He looks like money in the bank at 3-1 and is your key runner.

The Steve Asmussen trained no. 9 Blue Light is three of four at the distance with two wins. He has run impressively at times only to follow up those one or two starts with a very disappointing performance. His last try was one of those at the tricky distance of 6 1/2 furlongs where he has thrown in a bad race two times. He looks like an overlay at 15-1.

High percentage trainer Scott Becker sends out no. 3 Walker’s Win who is eight of 11 overall with six wins, has tactical speed and should be a down the lane player at odds of 8-1.

The Mark Casse trained no. 6 Classic Car Wash has never tried the distance and appears to be one of those runners who tried longer distances enough that when the chance to be a sprinter comes to pass he excels. His lifetime record is 8:3-1-1 and he should be moving like a freight train during the middle part of the race. He is 7-2.

No. 7 Super Ocho can run some of the fastest fractions in North America and will be on the lead. He is a dangerous wire-to-wire threat, should be the favorite with little upside but must be included.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 4 with 3, 6, 7 and 9 Total wager: $9.60.

Gulfstream

Race 11

The H. Allen Jerkens Handicap is a two mile turf marathon for 3-year-olds and up. This event attracted a field of 10 including three trained by Mike Maker and two trained by Graham Motion along with one being saddled by a new trainer. Runners exiting turf races include two at Aqueduct and one each at Churchill, Far Hills and Keeneland. Runners exiting synthetic races include two at Gulfsteam and one each at Turfway and Woodbine with the final runner coming out of a Santa Anita dirt race.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call five time in 92 total tries. The pace should be slow and speed should be an advantage.

One of the Motion entries is no. 3 Swore one of two runners with only six lifetime starts. He has never finished worse than fourth including one dirt try and seems to run to his level of competition with closing kick. The added distance should be no problem and he should pass horse late at 12-1 as your key runner.

The other runner with only six starts is no. 4 F Five trained by Brian Lynch and he looks every bit the part of a long distance runner. His style is to run relatively balanced and he can show some front end speed at times. His record of two wins and a second in four starts on turf is solid and his odds are 6-1.

No. 7 Catch That Party is a Maker runner who has finished in the top four eight of his last nine turf tries. He is a closer and has been close to the pace occasionally. He is 14 of 19 on turf which shows consistency and his odds are 8-1.

No. 8 McLovin is the only runner who has contested the distance. He won, though that was at Far Hills which is largely a steeplechase driven event. The success prior to that win coupled with his tactical speed make him a player. He is 5-2.

The Maker runner and seven-year-old gelding no. 1 Value Engineering has met some of the toughest competition in the field and shows a 14 of 19 lifetime turf record identical to one of the other Maker runners mentioned earlier. He figures to be a late factor at an underlay price of 2-1.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 3 with 1, 4, 7 and 8 Total wager: $9.60.

Why play superfectas?

For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be over bet in the superfecta pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.

This is why a 10-cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top four positions.

The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key one runner essentially boxing it with four to seven other runners.

Superfecta key wagering savings

There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a straight box of any sort makes little sense.

The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of those top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.

The conditions are:

Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12.

The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.

Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly.