Superfecta keys: Play these 4 at Aqueduct, Del Mar and Churchill

These Saturday races at Aqueduct, Del Mar and Churchill meet the criteria I've established for using the superfecta-key betting strategy.

Aqueduct

Race 6

Nine runners have been entered in the Pebble Stakes (G3) at one mile on the turf for 3-year-old fillies, including three saddled by Chad Brown and two by Christophe Clement. One of the latter’s entries also is stretching out to a turf route for the first time. Eight runners exit turf races – three at Aqueduct, two each at Monmouth and Laurel and one at Keeneland – with the final runner exiting an Aqueduct dirt run.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and is seven of eight at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call in one in every five starts. The pace should be solid with the advantage to runners coming from off the pace.

No. 5 Silver Skillet trained by Clement is a tractable runner, having come from far off pace in one win and showing speed on both dirt and turf in other tries. That gives her an advantage against this field. She has been in the money in all four of her starts on turf, with two wins and two seconds, and is your key runner at 5-1.

No. 2 Plentitude is the Clement runner stretching out after finishing first and fourth in two turf sprints, coming from off pace in both tries. She is unknown at a route of ground but if rated can be a strong player at overlay odds of 10-1

Brown sends out no. 7 Startup Mentality for only her second start following a closing maiden win at Monmouth against a field of eight. The anticipated fast pace along with her trainer make her a player at 4-1.

No. 6 Sacred Wish trained by George Weaver switched to turf after seven tries on dirt and has logged a first and fourth while coming from far off pace in both tries. She is going to be moving late at 5-2.

Brown also saddles no. 8 Rhiannon, who debuted on dirt and followed that troubled off-the-board effort with an open length maiden breaking score at 1 1/16 miles on turf. She should improve off that effort and is 2-1.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 5 with 2, 6, 7 and 8 Total wager: $9.60.

Race 7

This one-mile claimer on the dirt attracted a field of nine. All runners exit dirt races, eight at Aqueduct and one at Parx.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in four starts overall and at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call three times in 77 total starts for races that show. The advantage should be to runners on or near the lead.

No. 6 Utamaro trained by Linda Rice wired the field at this distance on this surface in the slop last time out. That effort came after two fourth place finishes at Saratoga at this distance, which were sandwiched around two poor turf tries. He is a solid player for a superfecta at odds of 9-2 as your key runner.

No. 8 Uncle Water Flow has seven tries at the distance with a first, second and third. He will be making only his third start in 2023 and third for his new trainer Tony Dutrow. Any sort of form comparable to last year's and he fits right in with even minor improvement at odds of 8-1.

No. 3 South Street finished fourth in a seven-furlong sprint after two poor runs at longer distances than the mile he faces today. He put forth some reasonable efforts earlier in the year, finishing third and fifth at Saratoga and Belmont. That last run coupled with the distance make him a player at 6-1.

David Jacobson saddles no. 4 Kingdom, a runner with tactical speed who shows a first and second at the distance in two tries. He is a solid player here at 5-1.

No. 9 Happy Bob has five checks from nine dirt tries and possesses pace pressing tactical speed running for the Dominick Schettino barn again the last two starts after beginning his career there. He is a solid player at 2-1.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 6 with 3, 4, 8 and 9 Total wager: $9.60.

Del Mar

Race 7

The Kathryn Crosby Stakes at one mile on the turf for fillies and mares 3-year-olds and up attracted a field of nine, including two each trained by Bob Baffert and Phil D’Amato. Seven runners exit turf runs - five at Santa Anita, one each at Del Mar and Golden Gate - while two come out of dirt races at Del Mar and Los Alamitos.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one of every five starts for races that show. The pace should be moderate to fast with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

No. 4 Turnerloose trained by D’Amato has a three of four in-the-money record at the distance with two wins. He possesses enough tactical speed to be just off the pace early and comes out of four graded events, where he logged two in-the-money finishes at longer distances. The turn back to one mile is favorable, and she is your key runner at 7-2.

No. 2 Nadette ran credibly in France during 2022 and has been in the Neil Drysdale barn for her 2023 runs, logging two second-place finishes in five starts across four graded and one ungraded event. She will have to pass horses late and is a danger, especially if the leaders wilt late. Her odds are 6-1.

Baffert sends out no. 6 Ganadora, who has one turf run in her 10 race career in which she finished a solid third leading until late in the race. She is going to be on or near the lead and should be able to last for a share at odds of 6-1.

No. 9 Yerwanthere won her first two starts in Ireland and followed those runs with three off-the-board finishes before coming across the pond and logging a fourth and win stateside at this or a similar distance. She needs pace to run at and should be a strong stretch factor at 6-1.

D’Amato also saddles no. 5 Dolce Zel, who is new to his barn after being trained by Chad Brown. Her last effort in the Matriarch (G1) at this track was poor, but it was preceded by five consecutive in-the-money performances in the U.S. across four different surfaces. She is a solid player here at 5-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 4 with 2, 5, 6 and 9 Total wager: $9.60.

Churchill Downs

Race 9

This 1 1/8 optional claimer on the dirt attracted a field of 10, including two trained by Ken McPeek and a runner coming in off-the-claim. All runners exit dirt races – six at Keeneland, two at Churchill and one each at Parx and Ellis.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one of every 10 starts for races that show. The pace should be slow with the advantage to those on or near the lead.

McPeek’s runner no. 10 Creative Minister is a classic grinder who has a nine of 14 in-the-money record overall. While the pace is not anticipated to be extremely fast, he still fits into the top four scenario and is your key horse at 7-2.

No. 5 Roman Centurian ran poorly in his last start on dirt and prior to that tried turf for the first time and showed little form. But prior to those efforts he ran four solid dirt routes, logging two thirds, a second and first. This barn rarely wins but a return to those prior four runs put him in the mix at odds of 20-1.

McPeek also saddles no. 3 Escapologist, one of only two 3-year-olds in the field. He brings a record of five for eight in the money on dirt, with two wins, a second and third at the distance in three tries. He has logged two wins and a second in his last three dirt starts and has upside late in his 3-year-old season. He is 15-1.

No. 8 Cooke Creek has some tactical speed but generally settles midpack before showing a strong late kick, as he has in four of his last five starts. He is eight of 13 in the money on dirt with two wins and should be a part of the mix down the stretch for a share at 5-1.

The Steve Asmussen trained no. 7 Magic Tap, the other 3-year-old in the field, has the most upside with four top four finishes in five starts, all routes, after an inconsequential sprint debut. He is the clear-cut favorite.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 10 with 3, 5, 7 and 8 Total wager: $9.60.

Why play superfectas?

For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be over bet in the superfecta pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.

This is why a 10 cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top four positions.

The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key one runner essentially boxing it with four to seven other runners.

Superfecta key wagering savings

There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a straight box of any sort makes little sense.

The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of those top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.

The conditions are:

Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12.

The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.

Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly.