Superfecta keys: Play 3 races at Keeneland, 1 at Aqueduct

These Saturday races at Keeneland and Belmont at Aqueduct meet the criteria I've established for using the superfecta-key betting strategy.

Keeneland

Race 6

Nine runners have been entered in the Bowman Mill Stakes a six furlong dirt race for 2-year-olds, including one filly. Eight runners exit dirt races including three at Keeneland, two at Churchill Downs and one each at Prairie Meadows, Parx and Aqueduct with the final runner trying dirt for the first time coming out of a turf race at Keeneland.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of two in three starts overall and four in five at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in every two starts. The pace should be solid with the advantage to runners coming from off the pace.

High-percentage small-stable trainer Michael Campbell sends out no. 5 Patriot Spirit, the only runner coming out of a dirt race who is untried at the distance after an off-the-board finish routing and a win at seven furlongs. His advantage off an anticipated fast pace is to stalk and he is going to be full of run late at odds of 8-1. He is your key runner.

No. 7 Cowes for Wayne Catalano is the runner coming out of a turf race. He broke his maiden at 5 1/2 furlongs on the grass at Saratoga and followed that up with a fourth at Keeneland at the same distance and surface. He ran from off the pace in those races, is working well, and figures to be a factor late at 10-1.

The inclusion of the filly no. 3 Royal Slipper trained by Wesley Ward is supported by the combination of her raw natural speed and a trainer who has demonstrated success with similar situations in the past. She wired the field on debut in a fast time at Keeneland and is 4-1.

The speed of the speed is likely the Steve Asmussen trained no. 2 Valentine Candy, who has a first at Saratoga and second at Keeneland,  both at this distance, sandwiching an off-the-board graded stakes effort where he had some trouble. He should be part of the mix until very late at 3-1.

The Rodolphe Brisset trained no. 1 Normandy Hero can pass horses, as demonstrated by his rally from fourth over this course and distance to win for the second time in four dirt sprints. His familiarity with the course and off-pace style make him a player at 5-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 5 with 1, 2, 3 and 7 Total wager: $9.60.

Race 7

This seven-furlong optional-claimer on the dirt for 3-year-olds and up attracted a field of 10, including two trained by Steve Asmussen. Eight exit dirt runs, two each at Churchill, Keeneland and Charles Town and one each at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Santa Anita, with the final two exiting a turf race at Kentucky Downs and a synthetic race at Presque Isle Downs.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of two in three starts overall and is one of two at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call in one of every six starts for races that show. The pace should be moderate with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

No. 7 Pro Oxidant has won four of eight starts, with his victories coming from six- and seven-furlong races from off the pace. He will have pace to chase and looks like an overlay as your key runner with odds of 8-1.

No. 9 O Besos is a true closer who has one run at the distance, a third-place finish in the slop in a graded stakes at Keeneland last year. He is has adapted to sprinting, logging three top-four finishes in four of his last five starts and should be moving late at odds of 10-1.

Paulo Lobo sends out no. 1 Fortin Hill, a grinder who has finished in the top four in eight of his last nine starts, all sprints. His lone off-the-board finish came in a graded stakes. He is 6-1.

One of the Asmussen trainees is no. 4 Chasing Time, who has a solid four of five record at the distance, including two wins. He is a grinder who has been in the money nine of his last 10 starts, whether on turf or dirt at varying distances at five different venues. He is 6-1.

No. 6 Doctor Oscar has won nine of his 20 starts and has hit the board in 14 of 19 dirt tries. He is dangerous on the front end and is the likely leader trying the distance for the first time. He is 9-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 7 with 1, 4, 6 and 9 Total wager: $9.60.

Race 8

The Grade 3 Bryan Station Stakes, a one-mile turf run for 3-year-olds, has drawn a field of 10 including two trained by Mike Maker. All runners exit turf races, three each at Kentucky Downs and Churchill, two at Colonial with one each at Aqueduct and Horseshoe Indianapolis.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of two in three starts overall and four of five at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call in one of every five starts. The pace should be moderate with the advantage to those coming from off the pace.

One of the Maker entries is no. 4 Smokey Mandate, who has never finished off-the-board in four turf tries at this distance or slightly longer. He has a stalking style and will make inroads late at odds of 9-2 as your key runner.

No. 6 Runaway Storm has never finished worse than fourth in four turf tries and won by open lengths on the lead in two of those efforts, which have come over three different turf surfaces. He should be close to the lead but has come from off the pace in one of those tries and looks like an overlay at 20-1.

No. 2 Gigante, trained by Asmussen, is going to have to pass runners into the teeth of a fast pace and he may be too far back for a win but should be part of the mix late, with two wins and a third from three tries at the distance. He is 12-1.

It is difficult to ignore no. 1 Talk of the Nation, a Shug McGaughey runner who has finished first or second in five consecutive turf tries after two runs on dirt, including his maiden breaking score on debut at six furlongs. He should be on or near the lead and last for a share at odds of 5-2.

Cherie DeVaux sends out no. 9 More Than Looks, who has finished in the money in four starts the distance, including two wins. He will have to pass horses late to win, making him a bad bet to win, but he appears to be a solid superfecta player at 9-5.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 4 with 1, 2, 6 and 9 Total wager: $9.60.

Belmont at Aqueduct

Race 7

This 1 1/16-mile allowance race on the outer turf for 3-year-olds and up attracted a field of 10. Nine runners exit turf races, six at Aqueduct and one each at Belmont, Parx, and Gowran Park in Ireland, with the final runner coming out of a Presque Isle synthetic race.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call four times in 66 total starts. The pace should be slow with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

No. 3 Ramblin’ Wreck is five of nine overall with three wins, including two at the distance from three starts. He is a closer but has been close to the pace in three of his seven turf starts and is your key runner at 4-1.

Veteran small stable trainer John Pregman Jr. sends out no. 6 Be of Courage, who is five of 10 in the money on turf with one win. He always seems to be a late factor while racing largely in turf sprints and should lag up for a placing at odds of 12-1.

The Todd Pletcher trained no. 9 Quality G has been consistent running in six consecutive turf routes at Belmont, Aqueduct, Saratoga and Monmouth while logging five in-the-money finishes. He is a player here at 8-1.

The Shug McGaughey trained no. 10 Capture the Flag makes his second turf start and fourth overall after breaking his maiden in a dirt sprint on debut and showing little in a second dirt try at Saratoga. His turf debut was a solid fourth and he should improve with a little added distance at odds of 6-1.

Chad Brown trains no. 5 Redistricting, the runner with the fewest races on his resume who went from an off-the-pace maiden win to an inconsequential graded stake run his next try out. He is 6-5.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 3 with 5, 6, 9 and 10 Total wager: $9.60.

Why play superfectas?

For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be over bet in the superfecta pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.

This is why a 10 cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top four positions.

The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key one runner essentially boxing it with four to seven other runners.

Superfecta key wagering savings

There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a straight box of any sort makes little sense.

The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of those top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.

The conditions are:

Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12.

The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.

Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly.