Superfecta keys: Play these 3 on Saturday at Saratoga, Ellis Park

These Saturday races at Saratoga and Ellis Park meet the criteria I've established for using the superfecta-key betting strategy.

Saratoga

Race 6

This one-mile inner turf allowance race for state-bred fillies and mares, 3 years old and up, attracted a field of 12, including two each trained by Christophe Clement and David Donk.

Click here for Saratoga entries and results.

The entire field exits Belmont turf races, with one of them trying a turf route for the first time.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and is a combined eight of nine at the distance.

The runners have combined for a lead at the second call once in every 10 tries for races that show, which should provide an advantage to runners on or near the lead.

The Mike Maker runner no. 2 Solib is coming out of two seven furlong turf sprints, where she logged a win and fourth. Both those starts came shortly after she joined Maker, who is her fourth trainer over her last seven starts. These two efforts showed substantial improvement compared to her prior tries and she is your key runner at 4-1.

No. 12 Sweetest Princess has finished in the money in six of nine races and is three of five on turf. Her pace-pressing style should put her in the mix in the latter stages of the race. She is 12-1.

The runner with the fewest starts in the field is no. 3 Kosuke, who has a first and third in two lifetime turf starts at 1 1/16 miles. She should be forwardly placed early and hang around late at odds of 8-1.

The Danny Gargan trained no. 6 Sals Dream Girl has a come-from-behind style but has nine top four finishes in her last 10 starts across turf and synthetic. She also has a win and two seconds in three tries at the distance and has to be considered even in a race that seems to favor those on or near the lead. She is 6-1.

No. 10 Silver Skillet, one of the Clement runners, tries a route for the first time and projects to be a very formidable competitor down the stretch.  Her four in-the-money finishes in five tries include a second place finish on the turf in a seven furlong sprint. She is 7-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 2 with 3, 6, 10 and 12. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 10

The Sanford Stakes (G3) is a six furlong dirt sprint for 2-year-olds that attracted a field of 10, including two being saddled by new trainers.

Eight runners exit dirt races - three at Belmont, two each at Gulfstream and Parx and one at Ellis - with the final two runners coming out of synthetic races at Woodbine and Presque Island Downs.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of 100 percent in 13 total starts, with none having raced at this distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call in one in seven starts, though second-call data was unavailable in nearly half the races. Given the age of the participants, field size, and first try at the distance, this appears to be a very wide open event.

Ken McPeek generally focuses on developing runners toward routes. However, his no. 1 Call the Cavalry won on debut just off the lead. This horse figures to be a sprinter and should be much improved off the one try, where he had some minor trouble at the break. He is your key at odds of 8-1.

No. 6 Ramming Speed has logged a second and first in two tries on synthetic at Presque Island Downs, coming from off the pace in both. This runner figures to get up late as part of the superfecta at odds of 15-1.

No. 7 Triple Trea, trained by Canadian based conditioner Barbara Minshall, won on debut at Woodbine on synthetic at five furlongs, closing from sixth position in an eight horse field. That effort was balanced and this runner should be part of the mix down the stretch at 10-1.

No. 3 Dickens won a 4.5 furlong state-bred race at Gulfstream in a fast time and balanced effort on debut. He should be part of the mix late at odds of 8-1.

The Steve Asmussen trained no. 9 Gold Sweep has logged a first and second in two tries and was last seen as a nine-length winner in the Tremont Stakes at Belmont in a six horse field. He will be odds on off that effort.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 1 with 3, 6, 7 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.

Ellis Park

Race 8

This 1 1/16-mile allowance event on the turf for 3-year-old fillies attracted a field of 12, including two trying turf for the first time and one of them also trying a route for the first time.

Six runners exit turf races, three at Horseshoe Indianapolis and one each at Woodbine, Canterbury and Churchill. Five exit dirt races, three at Churchill and two at Ellis, with the final runner coming out of a Turfway synthetic event.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of two in five starts overall and two of three at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call in one in every five starts. The pace should be solid with the advantage to midpack runners and closers.

The Mark Casse trained no. 8 Pedigeek is a closer who has three in-the- money finishes in five turf tries across four different surfaces with Ellis her fifth in six tries. She logged those in-the-money finishes at three different venues and that demonstrates versatility. This runner is your key at 8-1.

No. 6 Jenny Lind is a closer with a win, a third and two fourths in five total turf runs. She will be moving late and looks like an overlay at 10-1.

No. 3 Fogo Island is trying turf and stretching out for the first time. She broke her maiden on debut at Turfway and projects to be a strong player here off that sprint try. She is 8-1.

Brad Cox saddles no. 2 Musical Score, the only runner with one start to her credit. That resulted in a win by open lengths at Horseshoe Indianapolis at one mile. She is 7-2.

No. 11 Clever Joke has never been off the board in four turf tries across four different surfaces. Ellis Park will be her fifth. She is a very strong runner here with a pace-pressing style at odds of 3-1.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 8 with 2, 3, 6 and 11. Total wager: $9.60.

Why play superfecta?

For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be over bet in the superfecta pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.

This is why a 10-cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top four positions.

The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key one runner essentially boxing it with four to seven other runners.

Superfecta key wagering savings

There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a straight box of any sort makes little sense.

The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of those top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.

The conditions are:

Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12.

The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.

Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly.