Superfecta keys: Play for Aqueduct, Oaklawn, Fair Grounds
For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be over bet in the superfecta pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.
This is why a 10 cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top four positions.
The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key one runner essentially boxing it with four to seven other runners.
SUPERFECTA KEY WAGERING SAVINGS
There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a straight box of any sort makes little sense.
The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of those top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.
The conditions are:
Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12
The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite
Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly
At Aqueduct
Race 5
This 6.5 furlong claimer for 3-year olds and up on dirt attracted a field of nine. The entire field exits dirt races including six at Aqueduct, two at Finger Lakes and one at Penn National. The field has combined for an in the money rate of greater than two in five starts overall and three of four at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in six tries for races that show. I anticipate a fast pace with the advantage to off pace runners and closers. This is often the case with races run at this distance where the additional one-half furlong often taxes the leaders since they tend to run the same at the half mile as if the race were six furlongs.
The Finger Lakes based runner No. 1 Waheel trying the distance for the first time has been in the top four nine of his last 10 starts with his sole poor performance in a state-bred stake. He has a pace pressing balanced running style and should finish well as your 6-1 key runner.
Another Finger Lakes based runner is No. 5 A Huge Checkpoint who has a similar balanced running style to No. 1 Waheel and is also trying the distance for the first time. He should make up some ground late at odds of 15-1.
No. 3 Brunate has a solid record of four in the money finishes in six tries at the distance and can close into a fast pace but does not win much with only two wins in 23 lifetime starts and is going to be a stretch factor at odds of 4-1.
David Jacobson back in training recently saddles No. 4 Jade’s Dream trying the distance for the first time coming out of a Penn National route where he won running just off the lead. He should be a stretch factor if he repeats that or his prior two efforts both closing runs finishing within two lengths of the winner in a route and sprint. His odds are 9-2.
No. 9 Storm Shooter is going to press high early speed and be a factor till deep stretch lasting for a share with one placing at the distance in one start as the likely lowest priced runner in the field.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 1 with 3, 4, 5 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.
Race 6
This mile claimer on the dirt for fillies and mares 3-year-olds and up attracted a field of nine including two runners with new trainers. Eight runners exit dirt races including seven at Aqueduct and one at Finger Lakes with the final runner coming out of an Aqueduct turf race. The field has combined for an in the money rate of greater than one in two starts overall and nearly two out of three starts at the distance. The runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in six starts for races that show. I expect a moderate to fast pace with the advantage to those runners forwardly placed but not on the lead.
No. 3 Run Up the Score comes out of two turf routes and prior to that ran in the top three five of six tries on dirt including one win at the distance. She has a pace pressing style and should never be far from the front with the return to dirt proving to be a positive for your key runner at odds of 5-1.
No. 5 Music Amore has been in the top three seven of her last 10 starts saddled by three different trainers. She should be close to the pace and last for a share with two wins and a second in three starts at the distance. Her odds are 8-1.
No. 1 Reigning Chick has run very good and very poor races and three efforts were at seven furlongs with two wins and a second. Her only try at a mile was the first of three consecutive very bad runs. She should be a solid stretch factor if she runs to her seven furlong efforts and her odds are 6-1.
No. 9 Vallarand boasts some solid efforts at the distance with three top two finishes in six tries and an overall in the money record of five of 10 on dirt. She is a solid player at odds of 4-1.
The likely tepid betting favorite is No. 6 Trade Secret who has been in the top four eight of her last nine dirt starts with one win in one try at the distance. She should be a factor throughout coming in off the claim for small stable trainer James Begg.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 3 with 1, 5, 6 and 9. Total wager: $9.60
At Oaklawn
Race 1
A field of nine has been entered in the opener at Oaklawn a dirt six furlong claimer for 3-year-olds and up and the field includes two runners who have new trainers. Eight runners exit dirt races including four at Churchill, two at Remington Park, and one each at Prairie Meadows and Delta Downs with the final runner exiting a turf race at Remington. The field has combined for an in the money rate of greater than one in two starts overall and at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in seven starts for races that show. I anticipate a moderate pace with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.
No. 5 Coal Truth is a grinder who runs the same race each start and has a hard time winning but an easy time passing enough horses to make him a solid superfecta player with a few checks in eight starts at the distance and is your key runner at attractive odds of 8-1.
A wild card is the turf to first time dirt starter No. 6 Gold Vermilion who projects to be as fast as his competition with seven top four finishes in his last 10 starts. He should plod along for part of the superfecta at odds of 12-1.
No. 9 News Box is a classic grinder who has been in the money 32 of 54 lifetime starts and nearly two thirds of the time at the distance. He does not win a lot but is a must consider in superfectas and his odds are 8-1.
High percentage trainer Karl Broberg sends out No. 1 Crimson Zip who is 11 of 15 on dirt and shows six wins in his last 10 starts. He should be a factor throughout and his odds are 9-2.
The likely favorite who does not win much is No. 8 Breaking News who has been in the top three at the distance 12 of 17 starts with only two wins. He should be pressing the pace but is going to be an underlay at post time.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 5 with 1, 6, 8 and 9. Total wager: $9.60
At Fairgrounds
Race 6
This 5.5 furlong dirt race the Louisiana Champions Day Starter Stakes exclusively for state-bred runners attracted a field of 10 who have started for a claiming price of less than $5,000 in 2021-2022 and includes two trained by Joe Foster and another runner coming in off the claim. The entire field exits dirt races including six at Fairgrounds, two at Delta Downs and one each at Louisiana Downs and Mahoning Valley. The field has combined for an in the money rate of one in two starts overall and at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in eight tries for races that show. I anticipate a moderate pace with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.
Top local high percentage trainer Ron Faucheux saddles No. 5 Mr. Production who has been in the money two of every three starts and should be a factor throughout. He is your key runner at odds of 9-2.
No. 9 Zelig has a poor record at Fairgrounds but is solid overall with a positive trend with five in the money finishes in his last seven tries with four wins. He is as fast as anyone here and does not need the lead with attractive odds of 8-1.
One of the Foster runners is No. 2 Cryptozonic who does come from off the pace and grinds his way to a lot of strong finishes evidenced by his top four finishes 10 straight starts. He is a must include at odds of 5-1.
The other Foster runner No. 7 Reckless Ransom has a similar running style to No. 2 Cryptozonic, has been in the money two of three tries at the distance and has the most starts in the field with 79 sporting a total of 48 in the money finishes. He is 6-1.
High percentage trainer Keith Charles has a runner in No. 3 Alterana who has won 11 of 20 starts at the distance and has faced the toughest competition in the field. He is a must include at odds of 4-1.
The Play
$.10 Superfecta Key 5 with 2, 3, 7 and 9. Total wager: $9.60