Superfecta keys: Bet exotics at Gulfstream, Santa Anita, more

These Saturday races at Gulfstream, Santa Anita and Aqueduct meet the criteria I've established for using the superfecta-key betting strategy.  

Gulfstream

Race 8

A nearly full field of 11 will line up for this 1 1/16 optional claimer on turf for 3-year-olds and up including two trying turf for the first time and one trying a turf route for the first time. Runners exiting turf races include two each at Gulfstream and Aqueduct and one each at Tampa Bay and Del Mar. Two exit Churchill dirt races and the final three runners come from races on synthetic including two at Gulfstream and one at Turfway.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and two of three at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one of every six starts for races that show The pace should be solid with the advantage to runners coming from off pace.

No. 8 Cuban Thunder trained by high percentage trainer Jorge Delgado comes out of a similar distance synthetic race where he finished second in his second stateside start after a poor dirt run at Santa Anita in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). He started his career in Europe and did break his maiden in a turf sprint. This is his first turf route and he figures to be a strong player off that last run as your key runner with odds of 8-1.

No. 2 Deadpan for Mark Casse improved in his second start after a third place finish to break his maiden both starts contested at this distance on two different turf surfaces. He was beaten less than four lengths in a graded-stakes attempt in his third start last time out at Del Mar and looks like an overlay at 15-1.

The Todd Pletcher trained no. 9 Nomos has run exclusively in graded events in his last three starts after breaking his maiden on the Monmouth green running off the board in each including a dirt try last out all in routes. He is a strong player if he runs back to that Monmouth race and his odds are 6-1.

The Brian Lynch trained no. 7 Beyond Stoked ran from just off the pace to break his maiden last start over this course at a mile after two inconsequential dirt runs. He should improve and is 3-1.

No. 6 Cugino for Shug McGaughey displayed a solid late kick in his only try a maiden breaking score at this distance on the Aqueduct turf course. He is 7-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 8 with 2, 6, 7 and 9 Total wager: $9.60.

Santa Anita

Race 5

The California Cup Oaks is a one mile turf race for state-bred 3-year-old fillies and this year a field of nine has been entered including three trying turf for the first time and one stretching out on turf for the first time. Six runners exit dirt races including four at Los Alamitos and two at Santa Anita with the final three runners coming out of Golden Gate races on synthetic.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of two in three starts overall and at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one of every 11 tries. The pace is going to be fast with the presence of dirt sprint speed.

No. 4 Asada Fries is proven on turf running first and second at this distance and has never been worse than fourth in six lifetime starts on turf and dirt. She is your key runner at 4-1.

The Peter Eurton trained no. 2 Prancingthruparis broke her maiden on debut in a turf sprint and followed that effort with two seconds and a fourth all in state-bred dirt stakes. Her balanced running style suggests she is a player here at generous odds of 8-1.

No. 1 Petit Filet finished seventh on debut in a turf sprint beaten less than four lengths and followed that up with a maiden breaking score in a dirt sprint and a second in a state-bred stake at seven furlongs also on dirt. She can get the distance finishing fourth at a mile last time out on dirt in another state-bred stake and her odds are 8-1.

No. 5 Sushi Sticks has run at today’s distance breaking her maiden on debut and failing in an open company stake. Those two turf starts were followed with a game third in a stakes race at a mile over the Golden Gate synthetic. She is a solid contender at 3-1 with a late pace charge.

Steve Specht saddles no. 9 Grand Slam Smile for her first turf and first route try after five synthetic and dirt sprints where she logged three wins and two second place finishes. She is consistent and is a solid player here at 5-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 4 with 1, 2, 5 and 9 Total wager: $9.60.

Santa Anita

Race 9

The Turf Classic Stakes is a 1 1/8 turf race exclusively for state-bred 4-year-olds and up and this year a field of 10 has been entered including two trained by Steve Specht. Runners exiting turf races include four at Santa Anita and two at Del Mar with three coming out of Golden Gate races on synthetic. One runner exits a Del Mar dirt race.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of three in five starts overall and two of three at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one of every seven tries for races that show. The pace should be moderate with the advantage to runners coming from just off the pace.

The grinder no. 7 Aligato trained by Mark Glatt has never finished worse than fourth in four lifetime starts at the distance along with a 12 of 14 overall turf record. He looks like money in the bank as your key runner with odds of 6-1.

One of the Specht runners is no. 10 Royal 'n Rando who has run primarily in northern California and sports a better synthetic than turf record. His inclusion is based upon his consistency overall grinding his way to in the money finishes slightly greater than half the time along with being beaten in this race last year less than three lengths along with a second in his only other try at the distance. He is 20-1.

No. 3 Bally’s Charm is a dangerous runner who has won from off the pace but could shake loose and wire the field. His overall record is eight for 11 on turf and his three starts at the distance resulted in two wins and a third place finish. His odds are 4-1.

No. 2 Carmelita’s Man has a grinding style and an overall turf record of 17 of 28. He will pass runners late and is always a threat especially if the pace is faster than anticipated. His odds are 5-1.

The John Sadler trained speedy no. 5 Kings River Knight is seven of eight on turf with five wins and four second place finishes. She is going to be or near the lead and is an underlay at 6-5.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 7 with 2, 3, 5 and 10 Total wager: $9.60.

Aqueduct

Race 8

This one mile allowance race on dirt for 4-year-olds and up attracted a field of 11 including two trained by Chad Brown. One runner has a new trained and two are trying a dirt route for the first time. Runners exiting dirt races include eight at Aqueduct and one each at Penn National and Saratoga with the final runner coming out of an Ellis Park turf race.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and two in three at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in six tries for races that show. The pace should be slow and runners on or near the lead should have an advantage.

Bill Mott sends out a stretch out runner no. 6 Silo Ridge who logged a second and first his last two starts after finishing fifth on debut all in dirt sprints. He should be a factor throughout and is your key runner at 6-1.

No. 5 Skylander has been in the top four in five consecutive dirt tries since changing hands and looks like a value play for small-stable trainer Lands Trites at odds of 20-1.

No. 8 Principe d’Oro new to the barn of Linda Rice is well-traveled with six starts across five different tracks including dirt and turf. Those runs have resulted in a first, second and third in four dirt tries including a maiden breaking score at Aqueduct at this distance. He has early speed and is 6-1.

No. 11 Whittington Park has finished in the top four nine of his last 10 starts and is four of five at the distance without a win. He figures to be part of the mix late and is 4-1.

One of the Brown runners is no. 4 Cascais was up the track in the Cigar Mile (G2) last time out and is hard to read given his runs on off tracks three of four starts. Prior to that graded effort he logged a first, second and third in three prior starts. He is 7-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 6 with 4, 5, 8 and 11 Total wager: $9.60.

Why play superfectas?

For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be over bet in the superfecta pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.

This is why a 10 cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top four positions.

The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key one runner essentially boxing it with four to seven other runners.

Superfecta key wagering savings

There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a straight box of any sort makes little sense.

The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of those top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.

The conditions are:

Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12.

The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.

Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly.