Superfecta keys: Play Saturday at Aqueduct and Del Mar

For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be over bet in the superfecta pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.

This is why a 10 cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top four positions.

The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key one runner essentially boxing it with four to seven other runners.

Superfecta key wagering savings

There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a straight box of any sort makes little sense.

The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of those top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.

The conditions are:

• Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12.

• The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.

• Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly.

At Aqueduct

Race 8

The Go For Wand (G3) is a one mile dirt stakes for fillies and mares 3-year-olds and up and this year’s rendition brings together a field of 11 including one runner coming in off the claim. All runners come out of dirt races including seven at Aqueduct, two at Parx and one each at Laurel and Santa Anita. The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of two of every three starts overall and three of four at the distance. Runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in four tries for races that show. I anticipate a very fast pace with the advantage to mid-pack runners and closers.

No.7 Dr. B has never contested a route of ground in 15 lifetime tries and does not need the lead. She projects to be a strong factor from mid-pack and her high percentage Parx-based trainer Butch Reid has a very strong record trying routes for the first time. She is your key runner at 4-1.

California based trainer Peter Eurton ships in No. 5 Sharapova who is lightly raced with five money finishes in seven starts and she has two wins in two tries at the distance. She comes out of a pace-pressing Graded stake where she backed up in the stretch finishing dead last against a much tougher field. She should be very competitive at odds of 12-1.

No. 8 Betsy Blue has a similar running style to No. 7 Dr. B and has won at the distance. She is largely a sprinter but is not a need to lead type. I expect a solid stretch move by this filly trained by Linda Rice who looks like an overlay at odds of 6-1.

High percentage trainer John Terranova sends out No. 10 Bank Sting who has three wins in five tries at the distance and is 10 of 13 overall all on dirt. She looks as fast as any other runner in the field and her odds are 4-1.

No. 3 Battle Bling has finished in the top four each of her last 10 tries reeling off three straight wins and has demonstrated the ability to be on the lead, mid-pack or far back. She will be a tough competitor at relatively low odds.

The Play

$.10 Superfecta Key 7 with 3, 5, 8 and 10. Total wager: $9.60.

At Del Mar

Race 3

This optional claimer on the turf at a mile and one-sixteenth for fillies and mares 3-year olds and up attracted a field of 10 including two trained by Phil D’Amato. Seven runners exit turf races including four at Santa Anita and two at Del Mar along with one coming out of a Laurel event. The balance of the field exits dirt races including two at Santa Anita and one at Del Mar. The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and slightly less at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in eight starts for races that show. I anticipate a moderate pace with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

No. 1 Thrumps Dream comes out of a Graded stake where she was beaten less than four lengths finishing last in a field of six. Prior to that effort she was in the top three five of six tries across synthetic and turf surfaces. She should be close to the pace and have a lot left late as your key runner with odds of 4-1.

No. 6 Freedom Lass comes out of five consecutive longer races including two marathon runs and prior to those efforts showed an even closer to the pace tracking style across shorter distances. She has finished in the top four eight of her last 10 starts and should be a solid superfecta factor at odds of 8-1.

One of the D’Amato runners who is making her fourth start stateside after coming from Brazil is No. 7 Macadamia who has run eight times never beaten more than three lengths with two wins and seven top four finishes. She is an overlay at odds of 8-1.

Graham Motion ships in No. 8 Pharoah’s Song who has two wins and a third at the distance running at six different tracks across three different surfaces in seven lifetime starts with six top four finishes and her one poor run was in a 14 horse stake race. She is a solid contender her at odds of 6-1.

The other D’Amato runner is No. 2 Buzz of New York who has disappointed more often than not taking a lot of money at the betting windows. She brings a record of nine consecutive top four finishes and will likely be the betting favorite for the sixth time in her last eight starts.

The Play

$.10 Superfecta Key 1 with 2, 6, 7 and 8. Total wager: $9.60

Race 7

A full field of 12 has been assembled for the Jimmy Durante (G3), a one mile turf stakes exclusively for 2-year-old fillies including two trained by Peter Miller. One runner has a new trainer and five are stretching out on turf for the first time. Runners exit turf events including two each at Santa Anita, Del Mar, Golden Gate and Aqueduct and one each exiting races at Delaware and Navan in Ireland. The final two runners come out of a dirt race at Santa Anita and a synthetic race at Golden Gate. The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of well over one in two starts overall and two of three at the distance. Runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in six tries. There should be a moderate pace with the advantage to forwardly placed runners.

No. 9 Thebestisyettobe trained by Phil D’Amato ran a solid second last time out in her second U.S start after debuting in Ireland in a turf sprint. She should continue to improve with a trainer who has been having an extremely good meeting. Her odds are 5-1 as your key runner.

Jeff Mullins sends out one of the fillies stretching out in No. 12 Ragtime Rose who projects to be competitive at the distance with a first and second in two turf sprints. She does not need to lead, has a stalking style and looks like an overlay at odds of 12-1.

Graham Motion saddles No. 1 Pallotta Sisters who wired the field last out on a soft turf course at a slightly longer distance and also shows a fourth on debut in a turf sprint surrounding a poor effort where she had some trouble. This filly clearly has tactical speed and should be competitive for a trainer with four money finishes in six tries at the current meeting. Her odds are 6-1.

No. 10 Sell the Dream has two solid second almost identical performances at today’s distance at two different tracks including Del Mar. She is very tractable and should be a factor throughout at odds of 5-1.

Chad Brown ships in No. 11 Liguria who has a first and second in two route tries on turf at Monmouth and Saratoga. Brown does not ship out west very often and the combination of the filly’s performance to date and the trainer make her a strong contender at relatively short odds.

The Play

$.10 Superfecta Key 9 with 1, 10, 11 and 12. Total wager: $9.60

Race 9

The Hollywood Derby (G1) is a mile and one-eighth turf stakes exclusively for 3-year-olds and this year’s edition attracted a field of 11 including three runners trained by Graham Motion. All runners exit turf races including six at Del Mar, two each at Aqueduct and Santa Anita, and one from Keeneland. The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of two of every three starts overall and one of two at the distance. Runners have combined for a lead at the second call three times in 87 total starts. With few front runners, I anticipate a moderate to slow pace with the advantage to forwardly placed runners.

One of the Motion runners is No. 10 Speaking Scout who has seven top four finishes in his last 10 starts across seven different turf surfaces. This runner clearly can ship anywhere and be competitive as your key runner at odds of 6-1.

The maiden No. 7 Spycatcher has five tries on turf and has never been beaten more than two lengths logging five fourth or better finishes. He runs close to the pace, will be stalking throughout and only needs to improve slightly here at overlay odds of 12-1.

Peter Miller saddles No. 4 Handy Dandy who has five first or seconds in five tries at Del Mar. He has never been worse than fourth in his last ten starts and is 8-1.

No. 8 War At Sea has never been off the board is six turf tries, should be just off the lead and should not have to pass many horses late to be part of the superfecta at odds of 6-1.

Todd Pletcher ships in No. 9 Wit with three consecutive mile turf runs registering two seconds and a win. He is a tractable runner who will be off the pace but is a solid player for the superfecta coming in at relatively short odds.

The Play

$.10 Superfecta Key 10 with 4, 7, 8 and 9. Total wager: $9.60