Superfecta keys: Play Florida Derby, 3 more at Gulfstream

These Saturday races at Gulfstream Park meet the criteria I've established for using the superfecta key betting strategy.

Race 9

Nine 4-year-old-and-up runners will contest the seven-furlong, dirt Sir Shackleton Stakes. All runners exit dirt races including seven at Gulfstream, and one each at Tampa Bay and Saratoga. The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of two in every three starts overall and four in five at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in five starts for races that show. I expect a solid pace with the advantage to runners coming from off the pace.

No. 1 Dean Delivers is one of the most reliable sprinters around as demonstrated by his nine top-four finishes in his last 10 tries including three consecutive graded events. He is tractable from off the pace at odds of 7-2 as your key runner.

No. 3 Octane is eight-of-10 at Gulfstream on dirt with two wins in four starts along with a third at the distance, and will be coming from slightly off-the-pace for solid percentage local trainer Carlos David. He looks like an overlay at 15-1.

The solid percentage trainer Bobby Dibona saddles No. 6 Steal Sunshine who is seven-of-11 overall on dirt with a win and third at the distance in two tries. This runner is a solid closer who should be moving late at odds of 8-1.

No. 8 Collaborate is a local runner, venturing outside of Gulfstream only once, and he sports an eight-of-13 dirt record locally with a first, second and third in four tries at the distance. This runner will be making a very solid late move at odds of 9-2.

No. 4 Weyburn has been saddled by three different trainers in his last 10 tries and was largely running longer distances in those tries but did have two seven-furlong runs both at Gulfstream showing a win and second place finish. With an overall solid two win and two second place finishes in four tries at the distance he is a legitimate player coming from off-the-pace at odds of 7-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 1 with 3, 4, 6 and 8. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 10

A field of 10 fillies and mares 4-years-old-and-up are entered in the Sand Springs Stakes contested at the distance of 1 1/16 miles on the turf including two trained by Brendan Walsh. Eight runners come out of turf races including five at Gulfstream and one each at Churchill Downs, Tampa Bay and Longchamp in France with the final two runners exiting synthetic races at Woodbine and Gulfstream. The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of three in five starts overall and at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in 11 starts for races that show. The pace should be slow with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

John Servis saddles No. 1 Love in the Air who has tactical speed and has come from slightly off-pace in her career across dirt and turf. She shows a solid six-for-six in the money record on turf including a second and two thirds at the distance in three starts. She is your key runner at 6-1.

No. 4 Souper Hoity Toity brings five wins in eight starts along with a second-place finish across both synthetic and turf surfaces and is trying the distance for the first time. She is a grinder who has never finished worse than fourth and looks like a solid on the improve runner for trainer Mark Casse and is 12-1.

Walsh saddles No. 8 Princess Theorem, who is admittedly a closer. Her inclusion is based upon strong recent improvement in her 5-year-old season where she shows a first and third in two starts at Gulfstream at a mile. The additional distance should favor her style and she is 8-1.

Graham Motion is taking over the training duties of No. 3 Jouza, who raced exclusively in France logging three wins including two on turf and one on synthetic along with one third place finish prior to this run. She has been within five lengths of the winner in every start in fields that on balance were quite large and should be considered a wild card coming out of a Group event finishing well out of it. Her odds are 9-2 for a trainer that hits the board half the time with U.S. shippers.

Chad Brown saddles the likely favorite No. 6 Marketsegmentation whose four tries are all at today’s distance sporting two wins, a second and third across three different turf surfaces with one of those wins at Gulfstream. She is a solid player here.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 1 with 3, 4, 6 and 8. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 13          

The Appleton Stakes for 4-years-old-and-up runners at one mile on the turf attracted a field of 12 including two trained by Shug McGaughey with one coming in off-the-claim.  Runners exiting turf races include six at Gulfstream and five at Tampa Bay with the final runner exiting a Gulfstream dirt race. The field has combined for an in-the-money record of one in two starts overall and a three of four at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in seven times for races that show. The pace should be moderate with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

No. 1 He’spuregold has never been off the board in seven tries at the distance and has been in the money four of five at Gulfstream. He has a pace-pressing grinding style and is your key runner at odds of 8-1.

Trainer Josie Carroll has been having a poor meeting with only two third place finishes in 16 total tries. Her runner No. 4 Striker has only one turf route a wire-to-wire allowance win at Tampa Bay after four consecutive synthetic sprints at Woodbine. This runner has a lot of room for improvement and has come from off-pace in those sprints showing tractability. He is 8-1.

No. 7 Winfromwithin has the most tactical speed in the race, has come from just off the pace in some circumstances and could wire the field if left unchallenged. He has nine top four finishes in his last 10 starts and is 7-2.

No. 5 Fort Washington for McGaughey is a closer who ran extremely well in his 4-year-old debut at Gulfstream last time out in a graded event finishing third. Expect further improvement for this runner who has six in-the-money finishes in nine starts on turf at odds of 4-1.  

No. 6 Steady On, trained by Todd Pletcher, has five turf tries logging two wins and two seconds and has been in the top four each start since running out of the money on debut at Saratoga last year. He has been improving on turf in each try and is 3-1.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 1 with 4, 5, 6 and 7. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 14

The Florida Derby (G1) exclusively for 3-year-olds contested at 1 1/8 on the dirt, attracted a field of 12 including four trained by Saffie Joseph Jr., with two runners new to his barn also trying a route of ground for the first time. All runners exit dirt races including eight at Gulfstream, and one each at Aqueduct, Fair Grounds, Tampa Bay and Santa Anita. The field has combined for an in-the-money record of three in five starts overall and one in three the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in four starts. The pace should be solid but given the timing of the race and points on the road to the Derby that are available, tactics may change making the pace uncertain and more likely even faster than anticipated based upon prior races.

No. 10 Fort Bragg, in the Tim Yakteen barn after four runs for Bob Baffert, has a balanced running style and the additional half-furlong coming out of four shorter routes should help this runner who sports four in-the-money finishes in five starts. This is his second 3-year-old start after finishing fifth in a graded stake at Santa Anita. He is 5-1 as your key runner.

No. 1 Jungfrau trained by Bill Mott finished fourth on debut at Saratoga closing ground late and followed that run with another fourth and then a second in two dirt routes. His 3-year-old debut was a complete toss-out and if you ignore that run, he looks like he may make up ground late at odds of 20-1 based upon those three prior runs.

No. 9 Cyclone Mischief has usually been on or near the lead and in his two wins he came from slightly off the pace showing a balanced solid late pace running style. Expect improvement in his fourth start at Gulfstream where he has logged a first, third and off-the-board finish. He is 8-1.

No. 12 Dubyuhnell has encountered sloppy surfaces two times in four lifetime tries and those were both wins at Aqueduct including a graded stake. A marginal debut at Saratoga in a sprint and a complete toss-out at Tampa Bay in a route are sandwiched around those efforts. His inclusion is based upon his ability to pass horses in those Aqueduct wins and he will be moving late at odds of 6-1.

Pletcher saddles the overwhelming favorite No. 11 Forte who is clearly qualified for this year’s Derby and does not need to win. He won by open lengths last time out but faces a number of new faces who need those Derby points and while he should be right there late, he is worth going against in his last run prior to the Derby and will be lower than his morning line.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 10 with 1, 9, 11 and 12. Total wager: $9.60.

Why play superfectas?

For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be over bet in the superfecta pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.

This is why a 10-cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top four positions.

The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key one runner essentially boxing it with four to seven other runners.

Superfecta key wagering savings

There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a straight box of any sort makes little sense.

The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of those top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.

The conditions are:

Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12.

The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.

Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly.