Superfecta keys: Play 5 exotics at Colonial, Ky. Downs, Del Mar

Colonial Downs

Race 6

The Da Hoss Stakes, a 5 1/2-furlong turf dash for 3-year-olds and up, attracted a field of 10 including three trained by Mike Trombetta. All runners exit turf races including three at Monmouth, two each at Colonial, Parx and Saratoga along with one last out at Woodbine.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of three in five starts overall and two of three at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one of every five tries for races that show. The pace should be solid with the advantage to runners coming from off-the-pace.

Trombetta is the leading training at Colonial and his runner no. 4 Biz Biz Buzz has logged eight in-the-money finishes in 11 tries on turf including six of seven at the distance with three wins and three seconds. He is going to be a solid fact right off the leaders and is your key runner at 6-1.

No. 5 Alogon is six of seven on turf with four wins, a second and third with five of those tries at the distance. He will be passing runners late at 12-1.

No. 9 Outlaw Kid trained by George Weaver finished off-the-board on turf on debut and since then has posted a solid four win in eight start record on turf along with a third place finish including two wins in four tries at the distance. He is a solid off the lead factor at 4-1.

Mark Casse saddles the speedy no. 7 Souper Quest logging a second and first at Saratoga at the distance along with a five furlong win on debut. He will be on or near the lead and last for a share at 7-2.

High-percentage trainer Larry Rivelli has the fastest runner in the race in no. 8 Nobals who should establish a clear early lead with three wins and a second in six tries at the distance and even greater success on synthetic compared to his overall record on turf. He is 3-1.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 4 with 5, 7, 8 and 9 Total wager: $9.60.

Race 10

The Virginia Derby (G3) contested at 1 1/8 miles on turf exclusively for 3-year-olds attracted a field of 11 including two trained by Chad Brown. Runners exiting turf races include four at Saratoga, two at Colonial, two at Laurel and one each at Monmouth, Delaware and Horseshoe Indianapolis.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of two in every three starts overall and is an overall five of seven at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one of every four tries. The pace should be solid with the advantage to runners coming from off-the-pace.

Steve Asmussen sends out no. 2 Gigante who already shows a third and win at this meet on this course including a graded win. He tries the distance for the first time and has closing kick along with a four of seven turf record including three wins. He is your key runner at 6-1.

No. 1 Freedom Trail for John Terranova has faced progressively tougher after winning on turf on debut and following that up with a win in a minor stake. His last four turf tries include a fourth and third wrapped around two off the board finishes in graded stakes. He passes horses and looks like an overlay at 20-1.

Brown sends out no. 7 Activist Investing who is seeking his third win in a row after running off-the-board on debut and finishing third in his second start. He has shown improvement since his summer 2022 debut and will be a stretch factor at overlay odds of 10-1.

Shug McGaughey saddles no. 9 Integration for his second start after winning on debut on this course showing late kick at a slightly shorter distance. This runner should improve and be a solid late player at 8-1.

The other Brown runner is no. 11 Program Trading a winner of all three tries, all on turf across three different turf courses including a graded stake last time out. He looks very strong and should be lower than 7-2 coming from slightly off-the-pace.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 2 with 1, 7, 9 and 11 Total wager: $9.60.

Race 11

The Colonial Cup Stakes at 1 1/2 miles on the turf for 3-year-olds and up attracted a field of 11 including two trained by Graham Motion and three trained by Mike Maker with one of those coming in off the claim. One runner is trying a turf marathon for the first time. All runners exit turf races including four at Saratoga, three at Colonial and one each at Ellis, Monmouth, Gulfstream and Horseshoe Indianapolis.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call four times in 109 total starts for races that show. The pace should be slow with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

Casse saddles no. 11 Glider who has been a very competitive horse on both synthetic and turf totaling nine starts and grinding out three wins, a second and two thirds. He should grind his way to a solid placing and is your key runner at 5-1.

One of the Motion runners is no. 1 Serifos who has improved slightly over the course of his last two turf tries including one second place finish his first in-the-money finish in six total turf tries. Motion is patient and this runner with continued improvement should be a factor late at 15-1.

No. 3 Starting Over, one of the Maker runners, is going to be on or near the lead and tries a marathon for only the second time in his 20 race career. His overall record on turf is seven of 15 including a third in the marathon. He should be very competitive here and has the right running style to be a factor throughout at 20-1.

Motion sends out no. 10 Sy Dog an off-the-pace runner who won on debut following that with two additional wins not winning since with six additional tries under his belt all starts on turf. He boasts a six of nine in the money record and will be a strong stretch factor at odds of 5-2.

No. 6 Temple another Maker runner is going to be towards the back of the field early and while he comes out of eight consecutive graded stakes showing four top four finishes in those events he will be an underlay at 2-1 running out of ground late.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 11 with 1, 3, 6 and 10. Total wager: $9.60.

Kentucky Downs

Race 11

The Ladies Turf Sprint (G2) run at 6.5 furlongs on turf for fillies and mares 3-year-olds and up attracted a field of nine including one trying a turf sprint for the first time. Eight runners exit turf races including four at Saratoga and two each at Ellis and Del Mar with the final runner coming out of a Horseshoe Indianapolis dirt race.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of two in three starts overall and is nine of 10 at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in every nine starts for races that show. The pace should be slow with the advantage to those on or near the lead.

No. 3 Wakanaka trained by Bill Mott is trying the distance for the first time and comes out of nine graded stakes in her last 10 starts. Her pressing style and tractability make her very tough her at 4-1 as your key runner.

Christophe Clement sends out the off-the-pace runner no. 9 Gal in a Rush who is eight of nine on turf including a second place finish in one start at the distance. She will have to come from out of it but is simply too good to ignore in the superfecta at attractive odds of 12-1.

Casse saddles no. 7 Our Flash Drive who similar to no. 3 Wakanaka has faced graded stakes competition nine of her last 10 starts. She has logged four wins, two seconds and a third in those events largely at Saratoga and Woodbine across synthetic and turf surfaces including a win at this distance. She is 10-1.

Paulo Lobo saddles the always present on turf and synthetic no. 2 Quaria Comet who has a start and win at the distance and has been off the board in one turf try over four starts and never been off-the-board in five synthetic starts. She is very tractable and is 5-1.

High percentage trainer Jonathan Thomas sends out no. 6 Bay Storm who is 14 of 16 overall all turf starts and is a very solid mare who will be part of this throughout at 9-5.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 3 with 2, 6, 7 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.

Del Mar

Race 9

A full field of 12 face off in this one mile optional claimer on the turf for 3-year-olds and up including two trained by Mark Glatt and one trying a turf route for the first time. All runners exit turf races including nine at Del Mar and three at Santa Anita.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and two of five at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in every nine starts for races that show. The pace should be slow with the advantage to those on or near the lead.

No. 7 Aligato one of the Glatt runners has hit the board eight of 10 starts all turf tries and his two off-the-board finishes were fourth place finishes. This runner has accomplished this at various sprint and route distances and is your key runner at 4-1.

Neil Drysdale trains no. 9 Dancing Rinca who is a mid-pack runner logging three in-the-money finishes in six tries at the distance, along with seven top four finishes in his last 10 starts. He is not a compelling candidate to win, but does have the style to be a factor late at attractive odds of 15-1.

No. 6 Dominant Soul has four wins and four third place finishes in 25 lifetime turf starts and comes off a win over this course at the distance. He should be on or near the lead and should be there at the finish at odds of 12-1.

No. 3 Seven Wonders looks like a grinder across nine lifetime starts all on turf and he can pass horses and has one win and four overall in-the-money finishes in those tries. He should be close to the pace and a factor throughout at 5-1.

The runner with the fewest starts in the field is no. 2 Seal Team saddled by Richard Mandella and this 3-year-old debuted in a sprint in the fall breaking his maiden and came back this summer with a route win.  He should be close to the pace and is 5-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 7 with 2, 3, 6 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.

Why play superfectas?

For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be over bet in the superfecta pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.

This is why a 10 cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top four positions.

The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key one runner essentially boxing it with four to seven other runners.

Superfecta key wagering savings

There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a straight box of any sort makes little sense.

The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finishes in one of those top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.

The conditions are:

Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12.

The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.

Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly.