Superfecta keys: Play 5 exotic bets at Saratoga and Del Mar

These Saturday races at Saratoga and Del Mar meet the criteria I've established for using the superfecta-key betting strategy.

Saratoga

Race 9

This one-mile inner turf allowance race for fillies and mares 3-year-olds and up attracted a field of 10 including two trained by Chad Brown and two with new trainers including one who is trying turf for the first time. Runners exiting turf races include seven at Belmont and one at Churchill with the final two coming out of Mountaineer and Aqueduct dirt races.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and is 16 of 17 at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one of every six tries which should provide an advantage to runners on or near the lead.

Christophe Clement sends out no. 9 New Ginya who has never been worse than fourth in 10 turf starts and looks like a grinder who will be making up ground late and while she may not get there she fits as a superfecta player. This is your key runner at 8-1.

One of the Brown runners and the more lightly raced of the two is no. 10 Get Your Kicks who was well beaten on dirt on debut and has logged a first and fourth on turf. This runners should be close to the pace which is generally not the Chad Brown style and when that occurs it makes the runner even more dangerous since they always seem to have some in reserve. She is 6-1.

The Todd Pletcher entry no. 6 Diamond Hands is one of those runners who always hangs around but has logged only one win in 11 starts all on turf along with seven second and third place finishes. Expect this runner to be part of the mix throughout at odds of 5-1.

Graham Motion saddles no. 4 No Show Sammy Jo for her third try coming off a turf sprint fourth place finish followed by a maiden breaking score at a mile on both on the Belmont turf course. She is a presser who should be there late at 4-1.

The other Brown entry no. 5 Expand the Map has turned in some very big efforts only to come up short with five second places finishes in eight turf tries along with one win. She is always there and should be against this field at odds of 7-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 9 with 4, 5, 6 and 10. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 11

This 5.5 furlong state-bred allowance race on the turf for fillies and mares 3-year-olds and up attracted a field of 11 including two trained by David Donk one who is new to his barn. Entrants exiting turf races include three at Belmont, two at Saratoga and one each at Penn National, Mountaineer and Aqueduct with the final three runners coming out of dirt races including two at Finger Lakes and one at Parx.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in four starts for races that show. The pace should be very fast with the advantage to off pace runners.

One of the Donk runners is no. 3 Snowy Evening who seems to be improving with each start and brings a record of five in-the-money finishes in seven turf starts. She turns back to a sprint and figures to come from just off the pace to be a strong stretch factor and is your key runner at 4-1.

No. 10 Sikum is a little bit slower than her competitors but does have the ability to grind her way to a competitive finish at short sprint distances with two first and two second place finishes in eight tries at these shorter 5.5 furlong or similar distances. She is going to be a stretch factor at 10-1.

Smaller stable trainer Jeff Hiles has solid overall numbers and no. 6 Saratoga Chrome mirrors her trainer performance with a one in two start in-the-money record on turf. This first sprint try, a fast pace and her ability to pass runners make her a factor here at 12-1.

No. 8 Busy Morning makes her 4-year-old debut and comes into this with three solid efforts in four tries including one win at a turf sprint distance along with two thirds in turf routes. Her off-the-board finish was a troubled trip effort the last start of 2022. She figures to improve and is 4-1.

No. 9 Act of Congress is likely to be on the lead and turns back slightly off a wire-to-wire win after doing the same in two of his other four lifetime tries. She should hang around late at odds of 7-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 3 with 6, 8, 9, and 10. Total wager: $9.60.

Del Mar

Race 6

This 6.5 furlong claimer on dirt for fillies and mares 3-year-olds and up non-winners of two lifetime attracted a nearly full field of 11 including two coming in off-the-claim. Runners exiting dirt races include four at Los Alamitos Race Course, three at Santa Anita, two at Gulfstream, one at Pleasanton and a synthetic runner exiting a Golden Gate race.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of two in five starts overall and two of three at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one of every 11 starts for races that show. The pace should be slow with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

Thomas Bell does not saddle many runners and his entry of no. 7 Back On the Street is being included off a four of five in-the-money record at the distance with no wins but a close enough to the pace style to be a closing punch late. She is 8-1 and is your key runner.

No. 1 Numeric ships in off-the-claim and has been off since last August. She sports a four of seven in-the-money record on dirt and has tactical speed. She is 8-1 for solid percentage in this situation trainer Rohan Crichton.

No. 8 Sugar Sugar has logged only one win in 18 lifetime starts with two starts at this distance including the win and a second place finish. She figures to grind her way to a solid placing at odds of 6-1.

No. 12 Major Pryce has tried the distance once with a solid second to her credit and that was her last try after racing primarily on turf and synthetic. She figures to be moving late at odds of 5-1.

Golden Gate based trainer Andy Mathis saddles no. 5 Like No Other who finished a solid third in her first dirt try following six turf or synthetic starts where she was able to pass runners along with being either second or third in her last six tries at the second call. She is five of seven overall and is 5-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 7 with 1, 5, 8 and 12. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 8

The San Diego Handicap (G2) for 3-year-olds and up will be contested at 1 1/16 on dirt and a field of nine has been entered including two trained by John Sadler. Nine runners exit dirt races including six at Santa Anita and one each at Belmont and Pleasanton with the final runner coming out of a Golden Gate synthetic race.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of two in three starts overall and at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in every four starts for races that show. The pace should be very fast with the advantage to runners coming from off the pace.

No. 1 Slow Down Andy brings an eight of 10 in-the-money record on dirt and has one start and one win at the distance. He is going to be just off the lead, a solid stretch factor and is your key runner at 5-1.

No. 7 Senor Buscador is a true closer who has five wins in 11 starts along with one third place finish. He will be visually impressive late at odds of 12-1.

No. 4 Missed the Cut one of the Sadler runners came to the U.S. after racing abroad and logged one second place finish at a mile in his lone stateside try his first on dirt. His overall record on synthetic and turf before shipping to the U.S. was a four win from seven try record. He is 5-1.

Bob Baffert saddles one of the better runners in training in no. 6 Defunded who has tactical cruising speed and does not have to be on the lead. The anticipated pace make this runner who is 13 of 17 overall vulnerable since he may face some formidable early speed challengers that will compromise his ability to notch a win but he still figures to be part of the superfecta at very low odds.

No. 5 American Admiral is 12 for 17 overall on dirt and has logged one win and two seconds at three starts at the distance. He is going to be a solid stretch factor at 6-1.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 1 with 4, 5, 6 and 7. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 10

The Bing Crosby (G1) for 3-year-olds and up will be contested at six furlongs on dirt and a full field of 12 has been entered including two each trained by Peter Miller, Doug O’Neill and George Papaprodromou. All runners exit dirt races including four at Santa Anita, two each at Belmont and Churchill, and one each at Ellis, Keeneland, Gulfstream and Pleasanton.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of two in three starts overall and three of five at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in every four starts for races that show. The pace should be fast with the advantage to runners coming from off the pace.

No. 4 The Chosen Vron has won 12 of 16 lifetime starts along with a second and two third place finishes. He has reeled off seven consecutive wins across dirt and turf and is your key runner coming from off the pace at 4-1.

Papaprodromou sends out last year’s winner no. 10 American Theorem with an overall eight of 15 in-the-money record including four wins who has pace to run at and should be passing runners late at odds of 8-1.

The other Papaprodromou runner is no. 2 Spirit of Makena who is lightly raced with only five lifetime starts logging four wins and one second all on dirt at distances ranging from six furlongs to a mile. He runs solid every race and is 4-1.

No. 7 Anarchist one of the O’Neill runners has logged two wins and a second in three starts at the distance, has an off pace style and ran second to a very good sprinter in a graded stake last time out. He should be a part of the mid-pack group early and have some left for the stretch at odds of 4-1.

The inside runner no. 1 Hoist the Gold is a classic come at you grinder who has hit the board 12 of 21 lifetime starts and has been in the top four nine of his last ten tries. He is going to be making a move late and is 15-1.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 4 with 1, 2, 7 and 10. Total wager: $9.60.

Why play superfectas?

For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be over bet in the superfecta pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.

This is why a 10 cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top four positions.

The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key one runner essentially boxing it with four to seven other runners.

Superfecta key wagering savings

There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a straight box of any sort makes little sense.

The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of those top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.

The conditions are:

Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12.

The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.

Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly.