Superfecta keys: Go vertical in 4 races at Aqueduct, Gulfstream

These Saturday races at Aqueduct and Gulfstream meet the criteria I've established for using the superfecta-key betting strategy.

Aqueduct

Race 7

This seven-furlong optional claimer on dirt for 3-year-olds and up attracted a field of nine, including two trained by Chris Englehart. Eight runners exit dirt races, six at Aqueduct and one each at Finger Lakes and Churchill Downs, with the final runner coming out of an Aqueduct turf race.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of 1 in 2 starts overall and 2 of 3 at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call at a rate of 1 of 7 for races that show. The pace should be slow with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

No. 2 Victorious Wave, one of the Englehart runners, is 3-for-3 at the distance and has finished off-the-board in only one of his last 10 starts for four different trainers. He runs just off or on the lead and is your key horse at overlay odds of 8-1.

No. 1 Magnolia Midnight has reeled off four wins in his last five starts while in two different barns. Along with tactical speed, he brings a solid record of nine in the money finishes in 15 dirt starts. He should last for a share at odds of 6-1.

High percentage trainer Linda Rice sends out no. 8 Trafalgar for his second start under her care after being trained by two Midwestern trainers. He is a grinder who needs pace to chase but is very strong overall with a second-place run in two tries at the distance. He is 7-2.

George Weaver sends out no. 7 Legends Can’t Die, who has raced primarily on turf and has logged two second-place finishes in four dirt tries. He has speed and should be a factor throughout at odds of 3-1.

The Jorge Abreu runner no. 6 Awesome Native has logged only one bad effort in eight lifetime tries, and that was in a turf dash. He has a win and second in two starts at the distance and should be moving late at odds of 5-2.

The play: A 10-cent superfecta key using 2 with 1, 6, 7 and 8. Total wager: $9.60.

Gulfstream Park

Race 6

The 7 1/2-furlong Wait A While Stakes on turf for 2-year-old fillies drew a field of 10, including two trained by Christophe Clement. Four runners are trying turf for the first time and one has a new trainer.

Of the runners with experience on turf, two last raced Aqueduct while one ran at Keeneland and one at Santa Anita. The field is rounded out by four exiting synthetic races, three at Gulfstream and one at Dundalk in Ireland, with the final two coming out of dirt races at Churchill and Gulfstream.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of 1 in 2 starts overall and is 4 of 7 at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call in one of every four starts. Runners coming off the pace should have an advantage.

No. 9 Beach Cruiser, one of the Clement runners, should be on the pace stretching out off a six-furlong turf win when breaking her maiden at Aqueduct. She is a strong player at 8-1 as your key runner.

High-percentage trainer Victor Barboza saddles one of the runners trying turf for the first time, no. 5 Great Venezuela. This runner comes out of three consecutive synthetic sprints and has shown a balanced running style in each of those efforts. She should relish the additional distance and is 8-1.

No. 6 Milliat, trained by small-stable, high-percentage trainer Jack Sisterson, is a bit of a wild card as she shipped in from Ireland, where she won on debut in a seven-furlong, synthetic event when facing 12 other runners. She is 8-1.

No. 3 Madame Mischief is making her fourth career start. After finishing second on debut in a turf sprint, she followed with a maiden-breaking score at a mile on turf before running fifth in a route on synthetic. She has a pace-pressing style and looks like an overlay at 12-1.

The other Clement runner is no. 7 Ozara, who has run in three turf routes, breaking her maiden on debut, finishing off the board in a graded stakes and then logging a solid second in an ungraded stakes. She is 8-5.

The play: A 10-cent superfecta key using 9 with 3, 5, 6 and 7. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 10

This 6 1/2-furlong, state-bred, optional claimer for fillies and mares 3 years old and up on dirt attracted a field of 10, including one who has a new trainer. Eight runners exit dirt races, seven at Gulfstream and one at Churchill, with the final two coming out of Gulfstream synthetic races.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of 1 in 2 starts overall and at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call two times in 77 total tries. The pace should be slow with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

No. 3 Nic’s Style trained by Ralph Nicks easily won her debut at 4 1/2 furlongs in a fast time. She should improve and be on or near the lead  and is your key runner at 9-2.

Low-percentage trainer Steve Budhoo sends out no. 2 Awesome Annmarie, who is just fast enough early to be a superfecta player as evidenced by her four in-the-money finishes in six tries at the distance. She is well worth inclusion at odds of 20-1.

No. 1 Atalanta Alexandra is a solid runner with four in-the-money finishes in six lifetime starts and only one poor effort on dirt. She looks like a mid-pack grinder with upside improvement. Her odds are 10-1.

No. 8 Girvin Girl looks like a player when you exclude her off-track and synthetic runs, boasting three in-the-money finishes in four starts. Her odds are 7-2.

High percentage trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. saddles no. 6 Divine Connection, who has changed hands five times in her last 10 starts. This runner has a second and two thirds in four lifetime tries at the distance and is going to be on or near the lead at odds of 3-1.

The play: A 10-cent superfecta key using 3 with 1, 2, 6 and 8. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 11

The Pulpit Stakes at 7 1/2 furlongs on turf for 2-year-olds attracted a field of 10, including five trying turf for the first time. Four runners exit turf races, two at Keeneland and one each at Aqueduct and Laurel. Three other six runners come out of dirt races, one each at Gulfstream, Santa Anita and Monmouth, and three exit Gulfstream synthetic races.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of 3 in 4 starts overall and 1 of 2 at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in every four starts. The pace should be fast with the advantage to those coming from off the pace.

No. 4 Reminder has been in the money each of his four races on synthetic, three routes and one sprint. He passes horses and looks like an overlay as your key runner at odds of 12-1.

Joseph sends out no. 7 General Ledger for his fourth lifetime try and first turf try. He won on debut in a dirt sprint, followed that with a second in another dirt sprint and then backed up in a state-bred dirt stake after encountering trouble. He can pass horses, and this elongated sprint may work to his liking at generous odds of 20-1.

No. 11 Okiro makes his turf debut after four solid, synthetic sprints in which he finished in the money. He is fast enough and ran with a balanced running style in those efforts and can be a player here at 15-1.

Brendan Walsh sends out no. 5 Palm Tree for his fourth start. After finishing a solid third in his dirt debut, he broke his maiden at 6 1/2 furlongs on turf and followed that with a seventh-place finish in a graded-stakes turf route while beaten by less than three lengths in a 12-horse field. He comes from off the pace and is 3-1.

The Todd Pletcher trained no. 8 Noted figures to be involved from off the  pace as he makes his fourth turf start. He collected a win and two second-place finishes from five furlongs to 1 1/16 miles in those other tries. He is going to take a lot of money and is 9-5.

The play: A 10-cent superfecta key using 4 with 5, 7, 8 and 11. Total wager: $9.60.

Why play superfectas?

For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be over bet in the superfecta pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.

This is why a 10 cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top four positions.

The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key one runner essentially boxing it with four to seven other runners.

Superfecta key wagering savings

There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a straight box of any sort makes little sense.

The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of those top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.

The conditions are:

Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12.

The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.

Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly.