Superfecta keys: Play 4 exotics at Gulfstream, Fair Grounds

These Saturday races at Gulfstream and Fair Grounds meet the criteria I've established for using the superfecta-key betting strategy.

Gulfstream

Race 1

The opener at Gulfstream is a 1 1/16-mile maiden claimer on synthetic for 3-year-olds and up that attracted a field of nine. Five exit Gulfstream synthetic races, two come out of Gulfstream turf runs and the final two entrants exit dirt races at Tampa Bay and Aqueduct.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in five starts overall and one of four at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call three times in 65 total starts. The pace should be slow with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

No. 2 Decisive Pride has an on-pace running style and has shown significant improvement in his last few starts, logging two seconds at this distance after running poorly his first four tries. He is your key runner at odds of 4-1.

No. 9 High Stakes has only one in-the-money finish in seven lifetime starts but showed speed in both of his starts on synthetic, finishing third in one of those tries. He looks like an overlay at 12-1.

The runner with the fewest tries in the field is no. 5 Hartsbeatlikthundr for trainer Robert Falcone Jr. He had trouble at the start in both a Meadowlands turf race in which he finished eighth and a fourth in a route at Gulfstream. He has room for improvement and is 9-2.

No. 6 Royal Fox Hills has come in fourth his last three starts at this or a similar distance at Gulfstream. He is a grinder who fits but is unlikely to win at odds of 3-1.

New York based trainer Orlando Noda saddles no. 7 Elevated Causeway for his first try on synthetic and he fits based upon his two thirds and a fourth over both the Aqueduct and Belmont turf courses at the same or similar distances. He is 2-1.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 2 with 5, 6, 7 and 9 Total wager: $9.60.

Race 6

This one-mile turf claimer for 3-year-olds and up attracted a field of nine, including two coming in off-the-claim. Eight runners exit Gulfstream synthetic races with the final runner coming out of an Aqueduct turf race.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of two in five starts overall and one in three at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one of every six tries for races that show. The pace should be fast with the advantage to runners coming from off-pace.

Jorge Abreu sends out no. 9 Aruba a five of ten in-the-money runner on turf who should grind his was to a solid finish. He is your key runner at 3-1.

No. 7 Truth and Honesty has five top-four finishes in seven lifetime starts on the Gulfstream synthetic course, all in routes. He fits as part of the superfecta as he makes his turf debut at odds of 15-1.

Top trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. sends out a runner who shows a lot of speed in no. 1 Wow Wish. This runner can lead and also pass horses. He is making only his third turf start but has logged four in-the-money finishes in seven synthetic and turf runs, mostly sprints. He is 8-1.

Mid-Atlantic based trainer Mike Trombetta sends out no. 2 Opposites Attract, who is only one-for-eight on turf. He will have pace to chase and that makes him a solid top four player to improve on that poor record as he shows seven fourth- and fifth-place finishes in his last 10 tries. He is 6-1.

Mike Maker saddles no. 8 Emboite, who is going to take a lot of money  based on his six of 11 in-the-money record on turf and synthetic. He has tactical speed and looks like an underlay at 6-5.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 9 with 1, 2, 7 and 8 Total wager: $9.60.

Race 10

The seven-furlong Mr. Prospector Stakes (G3) on dirt for 3-year-olds and up attracted a field of nine, including two trained by William Morey with one of those coming in off-the-claim. Eight runners exit dirt races - three at Gulfstream, two at Aqueduct and one each at Churchill, Keeneland and Parx - with the final runner coming out of a turf race at Churchill.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and two of three at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call in one of every five tries for races that show. The pace should be moderate with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

Brendan Walsh sends out no. 7 Gilmore, whose 8: 2-1-3 record on dirt includes a second and third in two tries at the distance. He has met tougher opposition overall and is your key runner at 4-1.

William Morey has been having a great year and no. 4 Winfromwithin is coming in off the claim. He has raced largely on turf, has a lot of speed and shows a couple tries at the distance with one win. He is an overlay at 10-1.

Jorge Delgado trains no. 5 Hurricane J, who has won all three starts at six or 6 1/2 furlongs from on or near the lead while finishing off the board in three races at longer distances. He should be a factor throughout at odds of 9-2.

High percentage, small stable trainer Eddie Owens Jr. sends out no. 1 Great Navigator, who looks like money in the bank with a 9: 3-3-3 dirt record largely in sprints. He is 3-1.

No. 9 Sibelius is the defending champion. This runner always shows up although he ran off-the-board in his last three tries against extremely tough competition, including two graded events. He is 5-2 with a solid three of four in-the-money record at the distance.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 7 with 1, 4, 5 and 9 Total wager: $9.60.

Fair Grounds

Race 8

The Richard R. Scherer Memorial Stakes at the distance of about 5 1/2 furlongs on turf for 3-year-olds and up attracted a field of 11, including two saddled by new trainers. Six runners exit dirt races, three at Fairgrounds, two at Churchill and one at Horseshoe Indianapolis. The other five runners exit turf races, one each at Churchill, Remington, Keeneland, Aqueduct and Woodbine.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and two of three at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in four tries for races that show. The pace should be fast and runners off pace should have an advantage.

The Steve Asmussen trained no. 6 Private Creed is 11: 5-2-2 on turf and can win from off pace or on the lead. He is your key runner at 3-1.

The deep closer no. 8 Minnesota Ready is trained by Neil Pessin, whose horses usually show little speed. This runner should look impressive late with an eight of 19 record across dirt and turf at odds of 8-1.

No. 5 Went West is trained by Louie Roussel III, who has very good numbers trying turf for the first time and is a wild card. He brings an 11 of 15 record on dirt to the event, including five wins, and can stalk. He is 12-1.

Bill Mott does not ship to Fair Grounds much and his runner no. 9 Sosua Summer fits off a 5: 3-1-1 record at the distance. He has raced across five different turf surfaces in his last 10 starts and is 9-2.

The Al Stall Jr.-trained no. 10 Evan Sing has two wins in two tries at the distance at Fair Grounds and is going to grind past runners late at odds of 9-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 6 with 5, 8, 9 and 10 Total wager: $9.60.

Why play superfectas?

For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be over bet in the superfecta pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.

This is why a 10 cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top four positions.

The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key one runner essentially boxing it with four to seven other runners.

Superfecta key wagering savings

There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a straight box of any sort makes little sense.

The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of those top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.

The conditions are:

Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12.

The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.

Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly.