Superfecta keys: Play these Saturday at Aqueduct, Oaklawn

For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be over bet in the superfecta pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.

This is why a 10 cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top four positions.

The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key one runner essentially boxing it with four to seven other runners.

Superfecta key wagering savings

There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a straight box of any sort makes little sense.

The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of those top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.

The conditions are:

• Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12.

• The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.

• Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly.

Using these criteria, here are Saturday's plays:

At Aqueduct

Race 7
The New York Stallion Series Stakes includes this seven furlong dirt race for 2-year-old state bred fillies and this year’s edition attracted a field of 11, including two trained by Linda Rice.
All runners exit dirt races - nine at Aqueduct and one each at Belmont and Gulfstream. The field has combined for an in the money rate of one in two starts overall and one lone runner has tried the distance with one in the money finish. There is a moderate amount of speed with runners combining for a lead at the second call one in six starts. I expect a moderate to fast pace with the advantage to forwardly placed runners. Brad Cox trains No. 4 Midtown Lights who broke her maiden last time out at six furlongs in the slop coming from off the lead. She should relish the additional furlong and be a very strong stretch factor as your key runner at odds of 7-2. No. 5 Bustin Hot, one of the Rice runners, failed to hold the lead at the tough 6.5 furlong distance last time out and prior to that ran reasonably well on debut finishing mid-pack in a creditable showing. She should improve and run more balanced with the additional furlong compared to her last try and similar to her first start at odds of 15-1.
No. 2 Clover Street has a second and third in two starts at six furlongs and will appreciate a faster pace passing runners late at odds of 12-1.
No. 3 Forces Sweetheart won in her only start at Gulfstream an open-company maiden claimer and is going to be a factor early just off the pace and should appreciate the additional furlong at odds of 9-2.
No. 1 Les Bon Temps looks very strong here, never out of the top four in five starts including a second at the distance in another state-bred stakes. She will be tough to beat coming from off pace.
The Play 10-cent superfecta key: 4 with 1, 2, 3 and 5. Total wager: $9.60.
At Oaklawn
Race 2
This six-furlong claimer on the dirt for 3-year-olds and up attracted a full field of 12, including four runners who have new trainers.
The entire field exits dirt races including four at Churchill, two at Keeneland, and one each at Delaware, Louisiana Downs, Delta Downs, Mahoning Valley, Oaklawn and Hawthorne. The field has combined for an in the money rate of two in five starts overall and three in five at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in seven starts for races that show. I anticipate a moderate pace with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.
No. 1 Happy Boy Rocket is a closer but has flashed speed in three of his starts and he should be part of the mix early in his first try at six furlongs coming in off eight straight route tries after his maiden run at a sprint distance. He has five top four finishes in eight tries on dirt and is your key horse at 6-1.
No. 8 Zap Motion is coming in off the claim for small stable trainer Danele Durham. This runner has a solid amount of speed and this will be his fifth track in only his ninth lifetime start for a runner who is three of four at the distance. He looks like an overlay at odds of 20-1.
No. 6 Hanks is in a new barn and has been off since contesting this distance twice at Oaklawn in the spring of this year. He has a grinding style and will be passing horses late with an overall record of three checks in eight starts at Oaklawn he is worth including at odds of 12-1.
Steve Asmussen trains No. 11 Ottoman Empire, who has been shipped to six different tracks in eight lifetime starts running in two graded stakes in his 2-year-old season and this is his third start for a new barn. He has the ability to pass runners and has done that six of eight starts and should from mid-pack at odds of 8-1.
Robertino Diodoro is the new trainer for No. 10 St. Andrews one of the shorter priced horses who should be a factor early and last for a share coming out of two straight seven furlong races. He is one for one at the distance and could wire the field if sent early.

The Play

10-cent Superfecta key: 1 with 6, 8, 10 and 11. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 5
A full field of 12 has been entered in this 1 1/16-mile dirt claimer for 3-year-olds and up, including two trained by Ingrid Mason and two entries have new trainers.
Seven runners exit dirt races - three at Churchill, two at Remington and one each at Oaklawn and Hawthorne. Four exit turf races - two at Louisiana Downs and one each at Laurel and Indiana Downs - with the final runner coming out a synthetic race at Presque Isle Downs. The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of two in five starts overall and at the distance. There is little speed with runners combining for a lead at the second call one in 12 starts for races that show. I anticipate a slow pace with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.
No. 1 Cash Rocket is being saddled by new trainer Chelsey Moysey his third trainer in his last five starts and he sports a strong eight-for-11 record on dirt and turf. While he is not on the lead at the second call in any of his last ten starts he is always pressing and has not finished worse than fourth in his last ten starts. He is your key runner at 15-1.
No. 8 Arrival is a runner who can pass horses but does not have on or near the lead speed sporting a solid record at Oaklawn with a one in two start in the money record. He should be making a late move from midpack and be a top four finisher grinding to a solid finish at odds of 12-1.
The likely favorite No. 3 Wartime Hero has been saddled by five different trainers in his last 10 tries and he should be close to the pace although his record is not particularly exceptional unless you throw out his efforts on off track and races at greater than today’s distance across those starts. With that adjustment he is five of six in terms of top four finishes.
D. Wayne Lukas sends out No. 4 Optimus Kat who is a close to the pace runner with a grinding style who is only three of nine on dirt but given the competition he looks like he is good enough to be around late at odds of 9-2.
High percentage trainer Robertino Diodoro sends out No. 12 Primer Dimer who has some tactical speed and is one of the few runners to be able to gain the lead at the second call, similar to the Lukas runner. He may be good enough to last for a share given the competition.
The Play
10-cent superfecta key: 1 with 3, 4, 8 and 12. Total wager: $9.60
Race 8
This 1 1/16-mile dirt allowance race for 3-year-olds and up attracted a field of 10, including one runner coming in off the claim. All runners exit dirt races - four at Remington, two at Churchill and one each at Belmont, Delta Downs, Horseshoe Indianapolis and Keeneland. The field has combined for a lead at the second call nearly three in five starts overall and greater than two in five starts at the distance. Runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in six starts for races that show. I expect a fast pace with the advantage to midpack runners and closers.
High percentage trainer Karl Broberg saddles No. 3 U S Navy Cross, who has finished in the top four each of his last ten starts across dirt and turf surfaces with two different trainers. He has demonstrated versatility on any surface, has a strong closing punch and always shows up as your key runner at odds of 6-1.
No. 6 Rvindicated for small stable solid percentage trainer Rachael Keithan has been in the money eight of twelve starts largely on turf and rarely runs poorly. This is another runner worth considering if the pace is too hot and his odds are 30-1.
Diodoro has a very solid contender in No. 9 Disc Jockey, who will be on pace with a very strong record of 10 first or second finishes in 13 starts, all on dirt, and a solid seven of 10 top two finishes in his recent races for four different trainers. He is going to be around late at odds of 9-2.
No. 10 Stormy Pattern, similar to other entries mentioned, has been in the money seven of his last 10 starts and this will be his first start for new trainer Mike Maker. He should be pressing the pace similar to No. 9 Disc Jockey.
The likely favorite, who has faced graded stakes competition his last five starts still fitting the condition is No. 1 Barber Road, who will be moving with other deep closers coming from far off the pace as an underlay being off since June.

The Play
10-cent superfecta key: 3 with 1, 6, 9 and 10. Total wager: $9.60