Superfecta keys: Bet these 4 at Saratoga, Colonial Downs

These Saturday races at Saratoga and Colonial Downs meet the criteria I've established for using the superfecta-key betting strategy.

Saratoga

Race 10

This dirt mile allowance event for 3-year-olds and up attracted a field of 10, including two trained by Linda Rice and six saddled by new trainers, one of whom is Rice. Nine runners exit dirt races - four at Belmont, three at Saratoga and one each at Aqueduct and Horseshoe Indianapolis - with the final runner coming out of a Saratoga turf race.

Click here for Saratoga entries and results.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and two of three at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one of every eight tries for races that show. The pace should be moderate with the advantage to runners coming from off the pace.

A race with six horses running for new trainers is especially attractive for outcomes that may be inconsistent with prior runner form, making this a great betting event.

No. 2 Forrest City is making his first start for Bill Mott, unquestionably an improvement over a very competent Midwest trainer in Randy Klopp. This runner comes out of three consecutive second place finishes at Horseshoe Indianapolis, all in dirt routes, and he can pass runners, which will give him an advantage against this field. He is your key runner at 6-1.

The Rice runner new to her barn is no. 9 Memphis. He has the most upside in the field, showing only two lifetime starts: a maiden score last out at this mile distance from just off the lead after a poor turf effort in his debut. He should be there late at odds of 8-1.

No. 4 What’s Up Doc has never run off the board in six lifetime tries and can clearly pass horses. He is new to the small stable Ray Ginter barn and should be a factor late at odds of 8-1.

Rick Dutrow Jr.’s Saratoga meeting is chock full of seconds and thirds with one big win in a graded stakes. He sends out no. 1 Gut Feeling for the first time after the 4-year-old gelding resided briefly in four other barns in his last six races. He has never been worse than fourth in his 10 lifetime runs and is 5-1.

Another lightly raced runner is no. 6 Cicciobello, new to the David Duggan barn, who has a first, second and third across four dirt tries. He showed significant improvement in his last two starts and should have some late punch coming from off the pace and is 9-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 2 with 1, 4, 6 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 11

This 1 1/16-mile inner turf state-bred allowance race for fillies and mares 3-year-olds and up attracted a field of 10, including two trained by Christophe Clement. All runners exit turf races: five at Belmont, four at Saratoga and one at Aqueduct.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call in one of every 12 races that show. The pace should be slow and advantageous to runners on or near the lead.

One of Clement runners, no. 2 Waterville, is a grinder who always shows up, as evidenced by her seven of nine top four finishes along with a four of five record on Saratoga turf courses. She is your key runner at 7-2.

No. 1 Spinning Colors makes her third turf start after showing very little in four dirt sprints. Her first try on turf in a sprint was a creditable fourth and she broke her maiden last time out coming from off the pace at a mile. She should be coming late and fits well with these at odds of 8-1.

The other Clement runner is no. 10 Rheaume, who cuts back in distance after running in four consecutive turf marathons. She has never been worse than fourth in seven lifetime tries, broke her maiden on debut at the distance and should grind her way to a solid placing at odds of 6-1.

The Kelly Breen trained no. 9 Photon has shown improvement since switching back to turf, with a solid fifth in a sprint and a maiden breaking score at this distance. She is three of four overall on turf, is improved from her form last fall and looks very tractable at odds of 5-1.

No. 6 Solib had trouble in his third start for Mike Maker at this distance following two turf sprint efforts in which she finished first and fourth. She is going to be charging late and may come up short but should be part of the superfecta at odds of 4-1.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 2 with 1, 6, 9 and 10. Total wager: $9.60.

Colonial Downs

Race 10

The Arlington Million (G1) is a 1 1/4-mile turf race for 3-year-olds and up with a nearly full field of 11 assembled, including two each trained by Chad Brown and Mark Casse and three trying a distance this long for the first time.

Click here for Colonial Downs entries and results.

Ten runners exit turf races include three at Belmont and one each at Horseshoe Indianapolis, Saratoga, Ellis, Pimlico, Monmouth, Aqueduct and Colonial with the final runner coming out of a dirt race at Ellis.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one of every seven tries for races that show. The pace should be moderate to fast and advantageous to runners off the lead and closers.

No. 2 Never Explain runs for the second time in a turf marathon for trainer Shug McGaughey and has an overall in the money record of 10 for 16 on the surface. He should be well off the pace and finish well as your key runner at odds of 6-1.

One of the Brown trainees is no. 9 Adhamo, who has run poorly in his last two starts and comes in off a long layoff. He had some success before going to the bench, with four in the money finishes in five starts at the distance, and the anticipated fast pace should be favorable to his running style. His odds are 10-1.

Michael Stidham sends out no. 8 Catnip, who failed late last time out in his first turf marathon try. He comes into this with six in the money finishes in eight lifetime turf starts and should be closing into the speed for a part of this late at odds of 8-1.

The 7-year-old gelding no. 3 Set Piece for trainer Brad Cox runs in a turf marathon for the first time in his 29th career start. He is always moving late and has been a consistent check-casher over his career, with 17 in the money finishes in 28 starts. He is 6-1.

No. 4 Atone, who attempts a distance this long for the first time, is extremely consistent, with a 14 of 21 overall record on turf and projects to be part of this late at underlay odds of 7-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 2 with 3, 4, 8 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 11

This 1 1/16 optional claimer on the turf for fillies and mares 3-year-olds and up attracted a full field of 12, including one runner who has a new trainer.

Ten runners exit turf races – five at Colonial, two at Delaware and one each at Laurel, Ellis and Sam Houston – with the final runners coming out of a synthetic race at Gulfstream and a dirt event at Delaware.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in two starts overall and at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in six starts for races that show. The pace should be fast with the advantage to runners on or coming from off the pace, including deep closers.

The Casse runner no. 11 Fish Mooney is a true grinder, with 11 of 16 in the money finishes across turf and synthetic. She has shown the ability to be very tractable, and is a strong player here at odds of 4-1 as your key runner.

No. 5 Prettykeen runs the same race virtually every start and is going to have to pass a lot of runners to be part of the superfecta. She rarely wins but has an overall in-the money record of nine in 21 starts with only one win. This race sets up for her late and she is 20-1.

Mike Trombetta sends out no. 8 Galilei, who has three in the money finishes at the distance with two wins. She has consistently improved and figures to be part of the mix late at odds of 6-1.

The Michael Matz barn is judiciously managed, his percentages are solid and his runner no. 9 Tequilera is nine for 11 on turf with one win. This filly should clear the field early and could wire the field but should at least last for a share at odds of 5-1.

No. 4 Watch This Birdie has run three times on turf across six total starts and finished second and fourth in two turf sprints and first in her lone route try at this distance and on this course. She should be moving strong late at odds of 4-1.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 11 with 4, 5, 8, and 9. Total wager: $9.60.

Why play superfectas?

For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be over bet in the superfecta pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.

This is why a 10 cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top four positions.

The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key one runner essentially boxing it with four to seven other runners.

Superfecta key wagering savings

There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a straight box of any sort makes little sense.

The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of those top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.

The conditions are:

Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12.

The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.

Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly.