Superfecta keys: These 3 at Aqueduct and Churchill fit strategy

These Saturday races at Aqueduct and Churchill Downs meet the criteria I have established for using the superfecta-key betting strategy.

Aqueduct

Race 7

This one-mile claimer on the dirt for 3-year-olds and up non-winners of two lifetime attracted a field of 11, including a two-horse entry trained by Charlton Baker.

All runners exit races at Aqueduct – 10 on dirt and one on turf.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of two in five starts overall and at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in 10 starts for races that show. I expect a moderate pace with the advantage to runners just off the lead.

Trainer Paul Barrow has a reasonable win and in-the-money percentage with his runners overall and No. 5 Romanoatsee has eight top four finishes in nine lifetime starts under Barrow, including five in-the-money finishes. He looks like an overlay against this field and is your key runner at 20-1.

Trainer Ed Pringle does not win much, but his runner – No. 3 Let Freedom Spring – owns tactical speed and has been no worse than fourth at the second call in eight lifetime starts. He should be a factor throughout and his odds are 10-1.

The Baker entry includes No. 1 Ginnsu Warrior, also possesses tactical speed and has a win and second in four tries at the distance. He also is seven of 14 overall on dirt. The other half of the entry, No. 1a Kong Loves a Fight, looks overmatched but is a bonus here with entry odds of 5-1.

Meet-leading trainer Linda Rice sends out the likely favorite in No. 2 Mo Rewards, who has two third-place finishes in two starts at the distance and has split his initial 10 starts across dirt and turf showing a slight preference for dirt.

No. 9 Dee’s Speedstre makes his third start for Orlando Noda, who debuted him against much tougher competition after claiming him and then sent him out to a solid second place finish. Overall, this runner has two third place finishes in three tries at the distance. He is 7-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 5 with 1, 2, 3 and 9. Total wager: $9.60.

Churchill Downs

Race 1

This seven-furlong maiden claimer on dirt for 3-year-olds and up attracted a field of 10.

Seven runners exit dirt races – four at Keeneland and one each at Charles Town, Gulfstream and Horseshoe Indianapolis – while three come out of synthetic races at Turfway.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in four starts overall and one in five at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call twice in 56  tries for races that show. The pace should be slow with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

Keith Desormeaux sends out No. 7 Bluegrass Lute, who has been near the lead his last two tries and ran two balanced efforts in his four dirt tries. He is your key runner at 3-1.

Small stable trainer Elise Kendall saddles No. 4 Invasive, who ran creditably in a Keeneland six furlong dash last time out and has demonstrated the ability to pass runners. He is a contender here off that even-paced last run coupled with recent efforts on synthetic. His odds are 15-1.

The runner with the most experience in the field is perennial maiden No. 5 My Favorite Uncle, who has 13 in-the-money finishes from 29 starts. Expect this grinder to gain a top four placing at odds of 5-1.

The Charles Town shipper No. 6 Faneuil Hall has never finished worse than fourth in eight lifetime starts and has been a factor in virtually every one of his tries. He is 5-1.

Jason Barkley runner No. 2 Texas Ted ran evenly in his two sprint tries, finishing fourth in both of those efforts, and followed those runs with two relatively poor route runs. He looks like he may grind his way to an in the money finish at odds of 9-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 7 with 2, 4, 5 and 6. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 3

A seven-furlong maiden claimer on dirt for 3-year-olds and up attracted a field of 10.

Seven runners exit dirt races – three at Keeneland, two at Fair Grounds and one each at Ellis Park and Horseshoe Indianapolis – along with two coming out of synthetic races at Turfway and an entrant coming out of a Gulfstream turf race. One runner enters off the claim.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in four starts overall and at the distance.

These runners have combined for a lead at the second call two times in 52 total tries for races that show. The pace should be slow with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

Dale Romans saddles No. 8 Secret Pocket, who ran poorly last out on the turf. Prior to that effort he ran in a dirt route running close to the pace fading late. His debut was against runners who came back to win their next try and those earlier dirt runs make him a strong contender here at 4-1 as your key runner.

No. 3 Chowmein has two thirds from five lifetime tries and his last effort was under his new trainer Matt Kordenbrock for the first time. An effort close to that last try puts him in the mix at odds of 12-1.

The 10 runs by No. 10 Midway Miracle have netted only one in-the-money finish. Three of those tries were on dirt, yielding a second-place finish along with a solid fourth last time out. His other dirt try was an off the board on an off track. He looks like an overlay here at 15-1.

No. 4 Nara makes his first try on dirt off the claim after finishing third and fourth on synthetic in his prior starts this year. He figures to be a presence early and should last for a share at odds of 3-1.

No. 5 Uncaptured Dream has the best form of any runner in this field, with four in-the-money finishes in seven tries. He also shows a fourth and two off-the- board runs, one of which came on an off surface. He is a solid player here at odds of 7-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 8 with 3, 4, 5 and 10. Total wager: $9.60.

Why play superfectas?

For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be over bet in the superfecta pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.

This is why a 10 cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top four positions.

The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key one runner essentially boxing it with four to seven other runners.

Superfecta key wagering savings

There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a straight box of any sort makes little sense.

The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of those top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.

The conditions are:

Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12.

The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.

Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly.