Superfecta keys: 4 plays for Saturday at Saratoga

For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be over bet in the superfecta pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.

This is why a 10 cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top four positions.

The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key one runner essentially boxing it with four to seven other runners.

There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a straight box of any sort makes little sense.

The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of those top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.

The conditions are:

• Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12.

• The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.

• Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly.

The Saturday card at Saratoga provides four opportunities on dirt and turf.

At Saratoga

Race 3

Nine state-bred allowance runners line up in this 7 furlong dirt race for 3-year-olds and up including two trained by Linda Rice one of those coming in off the claim. Eight of the nine exit dirt events including seven at Saratoga and one at Belmont with one lone runner exiting a turf race at Saratoga. The field has combined for an in the money rate of one of every two starts overall and one in three at the distance. These runners have a combined rate of being on the lead at the second call one in seven tries for races that show. I anticipate a moderate pace with the advantage to forwardly placed runners.

No. 2 Bold Journey for Bill Mott has four top four finishes in five tries with the one off the board finish in the Gotham (G3) at one mile. He should be forwardly place with some tactical speed and can close or be on pace. He is your key runner at 9-2.

The turf to dirt runner No. 8 Mr. Kringle has two off the board tries on dirt but can compete here given the opposition. He has been in the money greater than one in two tries on turf and should plod along for a placing against runners who are not particularly impressive overall which makes him a solid superfecta player at odds of 15-1.

The Linda Rice off the claim runner is No. 6 Majority Partner who has improved in his three lifetime starts winning last time out at Saratoga in a six furlong sprint. He projects similar to No. 2 Bold Journey as a very competitive down the lane runner at odds of 4-1.

Christophe Clement sends out No. 7 Colloquy who failed on debut at seven furlongs but has been on pace in three consecutive routes with a first and second place finishes to show for those efforts. This runner should be very competitive here and a factor until deep stretch at odds of 10-1.

No. 1 On The Hill has reeled off five consecutive first or second place finishes after failing on debut all starts at six furlongs. He runs balanced and the additional furlong should enhance his chances given his running style which seems versatile like No. 2 Bold Journey. He will take a lot of money as one of the favored runners.

The Play

$.10 Superfecta Key 2 with 1, 6, 7 and 8. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 6

This seven furlong allowance race on dirt for 3-year-olds and up attracted a field of 10 including one runner coming in off the claim. Nine exit dirt events including five at Saratoga, one each at Churchill, Monmouth, Belmont and Parx with one runner coming out of a turf race at Saratoga. The field has combined for an in the money rate of one in two starts overall and at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in seven starts for races that show. I expect a moderate pace with the advantage to forwardly placed runners.

Todd Pletcher sends out No. 10 Misbehaved who has a first, third and fourth in four dirt tries. He failed in his 3-year-old debut at Churchill Downs after a six month layoff but came back with a solid effort last time out to win. He should improve off that last start and is your key horse at 6-1 and looks like an overlay.

Monmouth shipper No. 4 Jet Speed has the fewest starts in the field and has run third and first on a surface that tends to favor speed Monmouth Park. His third place finish demonstrated some ability to pass runners after wiring the field in his first start in the new barn of trainer Michele Hemingway. The added distance should help and his odds are 8-1.

No. 8 Luni Sima has finished in the top four each of his five tries since coming to the barn of trainer Peter Walder. His last start was troubled and he finished fourth but prior to that he finished first or second in four tries and looks to be very competitive here at odds of 6-1.

Trainer Horacio De Paz has guided No. 5 Baltasar to three solid outings since this runner joined his barn including a very fast maiden breaking score at this distance. He looks as fast as anyone in the field and his odds are 4-1.

No. 2 Life Changer trained by John Terranova has six checks in nine tries and is two of three at the distance and in three out of the money finishes he finished fourth twice. He is clearly a grinder who should be a factor throughout and will take a solid amount of money as one of the lower priced runners.

The Play

$.10 superfecta Key 10 with 2, 4, 5 and 8. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 8

The H. Allen Jerkins Memorial Stakes (G1) contested at seven furlongs on the dirt pits nine 3-year-olds against each other including two trained by Chad Brown. All runners exit dirt races including four at Saratoga, two at Monmouth and one each at Colonial, Horseshoe Indianapolis and Ellis Park. The field has combined for an in the money rate of better than three in four starts overall and is 100 percent at the distance covering 11 total races. There is a solid amount of speed with runners combining for a lead at the second call one in four starts. I anticipate a fast pace with the advantage to mid-pack runners and closers.

No. 9 Accretive is one of the two Brown runners and he has the fewest starts in the field both runs at 6.5 furlongs with a first and second place finish. This horse is the runner with the most upside in the field and was in second or third in those two tries at that shorter distance which tends to favor closers. I anticipate a solid stretch move here and an in the money finish as your key runner with odds of 9-2.

No. 3 Howling Time for Dale Romans has run extremely well at times and is turning back to a sprint for the first time since his debut where he closed for a six furlong victory following that up with another win in a stake. After those runs he looked over his head in three graded stakes finishing up the track. He seems to have righted himself including a solid fourth in the Haskell last time our along with a first and second including a graded stake win. He should be a solid factor till deep stretch at odds of 10-1.

A runner who has surprised at times is No.2 Runninsonofagun for trainer John Toscano Jr. noting that his sire is Gun Runner. He might be showing his true ability with those bloodlines and is as good as his record shows with seven placings in eight lifetime tries including his third in the Amsterdam (G3) last time out. He may grind his way to another successful placing at odds of 30-1.

Steve Asmussen sends out the a very tough colt in No. 8 Gunite who has one out of the money finish in nine lifetime starts. There are other runners in the field who look faster, with more upside, but his grinding style puts him in the mix in just about every race and I expect him to be right there at the end at overlay odds of 6-1.

No. 6 Jack Christopher is the logical betting favorite and should be an underlay at post time but his record is impeccable with four wins in five starts and I expect him to be on or near the lead and last for a share.

The Play

$.10 superfecta Key 9 with 2, 3, 6 and 8. Total wager: $9.60.

Race 10

A field of 10 has been entered in the Sword Dancer Stakes (G1) for 3-year-olds and up contested on the inner turf at a marathon distance of a mile and one-half including three runners trained by Chad Brown and two trained by Christophe Clement. All runners exit turf races including five at Saratoga, three at Monmouth and one each at Belmont and Royal Ascot in England. The field has combined for an in the money rate of three in every five starts overall and one in two starts at the distance. There is a moderate amount of speed with runners combining for a lead at the second call one in eight starts for races that show. I expect a moderate pace with the advantage to off the pace runners.

No. 10 Mira Mission is the only starter in the field who has not run a marathon distance and has a pressing style that will keep him off the lead but not too far out of it. The slower pace of marathon races can be very advantageous to runners trying them for the first time and I anticipate a solid move in the latter stages of the race with this horse as your key runner at odds of 12-1.

Christophe Clement saddles No. 8 Soldier Rising who has one win and three second place finishes in four tries at the distance and should lag the field and make a move late down the stretch as one of the longer priced runners at odds of 15-1.

Clement also sends out No. 6 Gufo a deep closer who may run out of ground and he will be visually impressive in the stretch especially if there is more speed than anticipated. He has three wins in five tries at the distance and is a solid superfecta player at 9-2.

One of the Chad Brown runners is No. 1 Adhamo who is making his fifth U.S. start since coming over from France. He has been in the money each of his tries winning last time out at a slightly shorter distance. The fields he has faced are formidable and he should be mid pack and make a late move as one of the betting favorites.

No. 3 Broome ships in for trainer Aidan O’Brien and he comes out of ten consecutive graded or group events likely meeting the toughest turf competition of any of the entries in this field. He should run well, has to be included and will receive solid backing.

The Play

$.10 superfecta Key 10 with 1, 3, 6 and 8. Total wager: $9.60.