Superfecta keys: Gulfstream, Santa Anita have 4 races in play
These Saturday races at Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita meet the criteria I've established for using the superfecta-key betting strategy.
Gulfstream Park
Race 7
A full field of 12 will line up for this 1 1/16-mile, optional claimer on turf for 4-year-olds and up, including one trying turf for the first time and two who have new trainers. Runners exiting turf races include three at Gulfstream and one each at Belmont, Del Mar, Woodbine and Aqueduct along with four emerging from synthetic-track races at Gulfstream with the final runner coming out of a dirt race at Churchill.
The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of 2 in 5 starts overall and 1 of 2 at the distance. Between them these runners have led at the second call in one of every five starts for races that show the pace should be solid with the advantage to runners coming from off pace.
No. 4 Camilo has four starts at four different tracks and is in a new barn logging a first- and second- and two fifth-place results, never finishing more than four lengths behind. New trainer Katerina Vassilieva has solid numbers overall for a small stable and consistent numbers with a new runner. This is your key horse at 12-1.
High-percentage trainer Ámador Sánchez sends out no. 12 Hakkimi, who will have pace to chase and make his presence felt late, missing the board in his four stateside tries after racing in Chile. He will be a solid, stretch factor with a 7-of-16 turf record and is 8-1.
No. 2 Ruse is 6 of 9 overall at the distance and may be close to but not on the lead. This runner is likely going to tire late and last for a share and is value-priced at 12-1.
Ian Wilkes saddles no. 9 Mackillop, who is 4 of 6 on turf and has the ability to close into a hot pace. His last race on dirt is a complete toss, and prior to that he logged two seconds and a fourth on turf, all starts since being in the Wilkes barn. He is 6-1.
Todd Pletcher saddles no. 10 Quality G, who is 7 of 8 on turf and looks like a grinder who is an underlay at 2-1.
The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 4 with 2, 9, 10 and 12.
Total wager: $9.60.
Race 8
This 1 1/16-mile, optional claimer on synthetic attracted a field of nine 3-year-olds, including two trained by Joe Orseno. Two runners have new trainers, including one of the Orseno entries, and one other runner is stretching out on synthetic for the first time. Seven exit Gulfstream synthetic races with the final two runners coming out of dirt races at Laurel and Gulfstream.
The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of 1 in 2 starts overall and 2 of 3 at the distance. All told these runners have led at the second call one of every six tries. The pace should be moderate with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.
No. 7 Pirate Radio was off the board in three turf starts along with a fifth in a synthetic sprint before joining the barn of José D’Angelo with his last out being a win at a slightly shorter distance on this surface. He is the key runner with odds of 6-1.
No. 8 Papa Do Papa Do is stretching out for the first time after an inconsequential sixth debuting at six furlongs on dirt, following that up with a win in a sprint on this surface. He runs balanced and should be very tough here at generous odds of 8-1.
No. 4 Paynter’s Prodigy is being included as a result of a change of hands and making his first start with the Brittany Russell barn. Russell boasts a very high percentage in a spot like this consistent with her overall performance. He is 10-1.
One of the Orseno runners is no. 1 Tapit Three Times, who logged a first and second on this surface at a slightly shorter distance and should be full of run late coming from just off the pace. He is 2-1.
The other Orseno runner off the claim is no. 3 Rezasrolex, who looks competitive with one win in one try on this surface at a slightly shorter distance after a win on the Belterra Park turf surface at a mile and a second on dirt at a shorter distance. He is 9-5.
The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 7 with 1, 3, 4 and 8
Total wager: $9.60.
Santa Anita
Race 7
The hillside turf course is the setting for this roughly 6 1/2-furlong allowance race that attracted nine fillies and mares 4-year-olds and up including one saddled by a new trainer who is trying turf for the first time and another trying a turf sprint for the first time. Two are trained by Doug O’Neill. Five runners exit turf races, including three at Santa Anita and two at Del Mar. Three runners come out of dirt races, including two at Los Alamitos and one at Turf Paradise with the final runner coming out of a synthetic race at Dundalk, Ireland.
The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of 3 in 5 starts overall and 1 of 2 at the distance. These runners have between them led at the second call one of every six tries for races that show. The pace should be moderate with the advantage to runners coming from just off the pace.
Dan Blacker sends out no. 1 Lunar Impact, who broke her maiden three starts back and followed that up with a sixth and a third in a stakes and an allowance race at this distance. She has shown consistent improvement across six lifetime tries, has pace pressing speed and is the key runner at 4-1.
Steve Knapp goes with no. 9 Real Fire, who is 3 of 5 at the distance with two wins. She should be visually impressive late coming from far off the lead and is a solid player late at odds of 12-1.
Small stable trainer Lorenzo Campuzano saddles no. 8 Diamonds Danzing, who has raced largely on dirt. Her two turf tries both resulted in wins, and one was at this distance. She is a pace-pressing runner with odds of 6-1.
The inclusion of no. 6 Arinniti for Richard Mandella is based on form in Ireland, including a couple seconds on turf and a win on synthetic, all in sprints. She has not raced in more than a year and is a wild card at odds of 5-1.
The O’Neill runner no. 4 Miss Lizzy is 6 of 9 on turf and won her only start at this distance. She is a grinder who will be part of the mix late and is 5-1.
The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 1 with 4, 6, 8 and 9.
Total wager: $9.60.
Race 9
This 1 1/8-mile, optional claimer on turf for 4-year-olds and up attracted a full field of 12, including two trained by Phil D’Amato. Runners exiting turf races include eight at Del Mar, two at Santa Anita and one at Gulfstream who has a new trainer. The field is rounded out with a runner coming out of a Golden Gate synthetic race.
The field all told has an in-the-money rate of 1 in 2 starts overall and 2 in 5 at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call once in 13 tries for races that show. The pace should be slow, and runners on or near the lead should have an advantage.
One of the D’Amato horses is no. 8 Reckless Spirit, who has finished in the top four in eight of his last 10 starts with only one win. He is a pressing-style runner who will grind toward a solid placing at odds of 6-1 and is the key runner.
The other D’Amato starter is no. 9 One of These Days, who is a deep closer and is bred to run forever. He adds some distance to his win last time out, which was his only placing in four lifetime starts. His odds are 12-1.
The Neil Drysdale trained no. 5 Irish Prophet has finished in the top four in 7 of 11 starts but rarely gets beaten by a significant margin. He has one second in one try at the distance and runs evenly with the potential for late kick, if the pace is exceedingly slow. His odds are 6-1.
No. 12 Sbagliato new to the barn of Jonathan Thomas won on debut and followed that with a second, both races being at Gulfstream at shorter distances. He is going to improve in his first start since February and is 4-1.
Peter Miller-trained no. 2 Legislator never has been worse than fourth in eight lifetime starts across turf and synthetic, including a third at the distance. He is a mid-pack runner who is 7-2.
The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 8 with 2, 5, 9 and 12.
Total wager: $9.60.
Why play superfectas?
For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be over bet in the superfecta pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.
This is why a 10 cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top four positions.
The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key one runner essentially boxing it with four to seven other runners.
Superfecta key wagering savings
There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a straight box of any sort makes little sense.
The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of those top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.
The conditions are:
Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12.
The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.
Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly.