Superfecta keys: Bet 5 exotics at Churchill Downs, Aqueduct

These Saturday races at Churchill Downs and Aqueduct meet the criteria I've established for using the superfecta-key betting strategy.

Churchill Downs

Race 7

The Pocahontas Stakes (G3) run at one mile on dirt for 2-year-old fillies attracted a field of nine. All runners exit dirt races including eight at Ellis and one at Saratoga. One runner has tried the distance and eight are stretching out to a route for the first time.

The field has combined to be in-the-money 15 of 16 starts overall and is one for one at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call two times in 16 total tries. The pace is largely unpredictable due to the presence of eight runners trying a route for the first time.

No. 1 Empire Island trained by high percentage trainer Norm Casse won on debut at Saratoga coming from off the pace at six furlongs and projects to be a solid player at a mile. She is your key runner at 5-1.

No. 3 Riperton trained by Paulo Lobo has two tries at seven furlongs running first and second including one on pace. She passes horses and also can be close to the pace along with being very tractable. Her odds are a generous 12-1.

The Todd Pletcher trained no. 8 Courbe comes off one win at Ellis at seven furlongs in a big field where she encountered some minor trouble and ran very balanced throughout. The extra furlong is going to put her right there at 10-1.

The Ken McPeek trained no. 6 V V’s Dream comes off a first at five furlongs and a second at six furlongs across the Churchill and Ellis surfaces and her trainer is known for looking towards routes with all his runners. She is going to be a very strong stretch factor at odds of 5-2.

Brad Cox trains the runner who looks as fast as anyone in no. 7 Youalmosthadme who won by open lengths at Keeneland and Churchill at 4.5 and 5 furlongs and had trouble when finishing third last time out at Ellis at seven furlongs. She can either pass horses or be on the lead and is 2-1.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 1 with 3, 6, 7 and 8 Total wager: $9.60.

Race 8

This one mile allowance race contested on turf for fillies and mares 3-year-olds and up attracted a full field of 12 including two trained by Brian Lynch. One runner has a new trainer and three are running in turf routes for the first time including two trying turf for the first time. Runners exiting turf races include five at Ellis, two at Horseshoe Indianapolis and one each at Tampa Bay, Colonial and Kentucky Downs with the final two runners exiting a Hawthorne dirt race and a Presque Isle Downs synthetic event.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of one in every two starts overall and two of three at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one of every six tries for races that show. The pace should be moderate with the advantage to runners on or near the lead.

Cox trains no. 3 Musical Score who has a win at Horseshoe Indianapolis and a third at Ellis at this distance. She has some early speed, the ability to pass horses, and may be ideally placed to be there in the stretch as your key runner with odds of 4-1.

High return solid percentage Midwest trainer Anthony Granitz saddles no. 12 Star Wisher the runner with the second most turf tries in the field with six who also has been in the money each of those tries logging three wins, two seconds and a third largely at Indiana Downs. She is a key player here at 10-1.

No. 10 Watch This Birdie has four turf runs including two sprints and two routes never finishing worse than fourth and pace pressing speed that will make her a factor throughout for trainer Ignacio Correas. She is 6-1.

No. 6 Empircal View won at 6.5 furlongs at the brief Kentucky Downs meeting after two off the board dirt runs and James Devito has solid numbers in second grass and second route races across a relatively small sample. This runner looks very competitive here off that sprint win and is 9-2.

Whitworth Beckman takes over the training duties of no. 7 Hay Stack who has run at six different tracks in her seven race turf career logging four in the money finishes. She is competitive here but looks like an underlay at 7-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 3 with 6, 7, 10 and 12 Total wager: $9.60.

Race 9

The Iroquois Stakes (G3) contested at one mile on the dirt exclusively for 2-year-olds attracted a field of nine including two each trained by Steve Asmussen and Wayne Lukas. Eight runners exit dirt races including three each at Ellis and Saratoga and one each at Monmouth and Colonial along with the last entrant exiting a Saratoga turf race. Eight of the nine runners are stretching out on dirt for the first time.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of three in four starts overall and is one for one at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call nine times in 21 total starts. The pace is largely unpredictable due to the presence of eight runners trying a route for the first time.

The Pletcher trained no. 3 Union Roll won by open lengths on debut at Saratoga coming from off-the-pace at six furlongs. He should be moving on the leaders late from mid-pack or closer and is your key runner at 5-1.

Robert Medina is slowly improving as a trainer and no. 1 Liberal Arts has logged a first, second and third in his three tries running progressively longer each time while improving his position each time. He looks very underrated here at odds of 20-1.

Cox sends out no. 7 Gettysburg Address off a debut win at six furlongs at Ellis where he stalked and won in an 11 horse field in a very balanced effort. He looks like an overlay at 12-1.

Rating runners coming off a short meeting is difficult but small stable trainer Michael Campbell’s debut winner at Colonial no. 9 Patriot Spirit was so strong that he must be included off the open length seven furlong win and he is 7-2.

Asmussen saddles no. 8 Risk It who wired the field in a six furlong sprint on debut at Saratoga, ran balanced in that effort, and certainly has the chance to do the same here at odds of 2-1.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 3 with 1, 7, 8 and 9 Total wager: $9.60.

Race 10

A field of 11 is entered in the Locust Grove Stakes (G3) a 1 1/16 dirt race for fillies and mares 3-year-olds and up. Runners exiting dirt races include four at Ellis, three at Saratoga, two at Monmouth and one at Mountaineer with the final runner exiting an Ellis turf race.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of two in three starts overall and at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in every 13 starts for races that show. The pace should be slow with the advantage to those on or near the lead.

No. 2 Pauline’s Pearl trained by Asmussen is a true professional with 14 in-the-money finishes in 19 starts along with eight wins and an 11 of 13 record at the distance with six wins. She comes out of eight graded stakes in her last 10 starts and is your key runner never far out of it at 5-1.

The Pletcher trained no. 10 Falconet is 10 of 11 overall and three of four at the distance never finishing worse than fourth in 11 lifetime tries. She is always there at attractive odds of 6-1.

No. 6 Hidden Connection should be close to a slow pace which moves her up given her slightly less impressive history compared to some of the runners in the field. She is five of nine at the distance with two wins and three seconds and should last for a share at odds of 8-1.

No. 7 A Mo Reay trained by Cox is a solid 10 for 14 overall and comes out of five top four finishes including three wins at today’s or a similar distance since she has been trained by Cox. She is a strong player here at 5-1.

The Chad Brown trained no. 4 Search Results has logged 14 in-the-money finishes in 15 tries and has never been off the board at the distance. She has tactical speed and is 3-1.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 2 with 4, 6, 7 and 10 Total wager: $9.60.

Aqueduct

Race 8

A field of 11 including one two horse entry trained by David Jacobson will face off in this 6 1/2-furlong dirt optional claimer including one runner saddled by a new trainer. Nine runners exit dirt races including seven at Saratoga and one each at Monmouth and Gulfstream with the final two runners coming out of Saratoga turf runs.

The field has combined for an in-the-money rate of three in five starts overall and at the distance. These runners have combined for a lead at the second call one in every four starts for races that show. The pace should be fast with the advantage to those coming from off-the-pace.

No. 10 King Angelo is a closer who will have a lot of pace to chase and also brings a solid three for three record at the distance with a win and two second place finishes. He is 9-2 and your key runner.

No. 8 Shivaree is a closer who never seems to get there and is new to the barn of trainer Carlos David who has a very solid record with runners in this situation. This runner has never tried this distance and sports a just under one of two start record in the money. I expect him to be closing late and never get there but as a superfecta player he fits at odds of 12-1.

No. 3 Castle Chaos tries the distance for the first time and sports a solid seven of nine dirt record. He has closing punch and just missed at seven furlongs last time out and will be a solid stretch factor at 10-1.

Bill Mott sends out no. 6 Vittorio who is the fastest runner in the field, has one third place finish in two tries at the distance, and figures to grind his way to a solid showing at odds of 3-1 never finishing worse than fourth in his last 10 starts.

The Jacobson entry is strong here with either no. 1 Nolo Contesto or no. 1a Durante a factor from off-the-pace. No. 1 Nolo Contesto is 15 of 23 overall on dirt with a third in one try at the distance. No. 1a Durante is eight of 12 overall on dirt with one start which was a win at the distance. The entry is 5-2.

The play: 10-cent superfecta key using 10 with 1-1a, 3, 6 and 8 Total wager: $9.60.

Why play superfectas?

For me, one main attraction to superfectas is that a superfecta probable payout pool is not displayed making this bet an unknown endeavor relative to an exacta and even trifectas in some circumstances where the probable payouts are available. However, if you observe the pool results over a long period of time, you will come to realize the heavily wagered upon runners tend to be over bet in the superfecta pool and when outsiders come in especially in the top two positions, explosive payouts might result.

This is why a 10 cent superfecta is a great leveraged wager if you select one runner you strongly believe will land in any one of the top four positions.

The table below summarizes the reduction in your outlays for superfecta wagers when you key one runner essentially boxing it with four to seven other runners.

Superfecta key wagering savings

There are books out there and it is common logic that the box wager makes no sense unless all horses are valued equally by the handicapper. Without getting too technical here, it is obvious if you have an opinion on a race, a straight box of any sort makes little sense.

The superfecta key strategy illustrated above requires you to ensure that your keyed horse finish in one of those top four positions. To maximize return, I am looking for three conditions to create potential for a high payoff.

The conditions are:

Betting interests of at least nine entries but not more than 12.

The ability to confidently key a horse that is not an odds-on or a heavily bet favorite.

Field that has runners seemingly ignored in the pool that would be at very high odds at post time but could be in the top four randomly.