Super Screener's top Kentucky Derby picks fill out Trifecta
What a Kentucky Derby! What a horse! What a fast pace! Given that the early fraction from this year’s running came back to a Brisnet figure of 103, it is astonishing that the winner, Justify, was able to run that fast early and still draw away through the wire with authority on what was yet another Kentucky Derby run on a dreadful sealed, sloppy surface.
We achieved our stated goal of hitting the Trifecta with three horses from our Top 6-ranked horses while having our “A” horse figure prominently in the Trifecta.
We knew it was a tough year for a longshot bomb to crack the Trifecta, and our top longshot bomber picks, Lone Sailor (24-1) finished a good eighth with no apparent excuses and Hofburg (27-1) finished seventh but clearly suffered a troubled trip. There were three points in the race in which he had to steady severely, costing him many precious lengths. A better trip easily puts him the Trifecta, and he is definitely a horse to tab the next time he runs, which will probably be the Belmont Stakes…though if we were connections, given his horrible trip and how lightly raced he is, a run in the Preakness might prove to be surprisingly successful.
The other Super Screener Top Longshot pick that was under consideration was My Boy Jack but, mysteriously, he went off as the second-lowest price on the board at 6-1 which eliminated him as a longshot pick, even while highly regarded by the Screener. Still can’t figure out how that could be, but perhaps the name is catchy enough to have drawn in a lot of wagering dollars from the general public at large. He finished a very fast-finishing fifth, and that is after having to hit the brakes twice. He’s another that with a clean trip could have easily cracked the Superfecta.
With Justify finishing first and two single-digit odds horses completing the Trifecta, payoffs for the Exacta and Trifecta were pretty thin. But that meant more Super Screener suggested tickets cashed, which is want you want to see when the payoffs are low.
It is now on to the Preakness Stakes, and it will be interesting to see who will try to take on the mighty Justify. Don’t worry if the race comes up chalky with a small field. We’ll go to the Horizontal wagers to look for and deliver value.
We can’t thank you enough for your continued support of our Kentucky Derby, Triple Crown, Breeders’ Cup and weekly Super Screener product. It is our absolute pleasure to serve you with this form of deep and thoughtful analysis, while educating along the way. We wouldn’t be here without you, so a big thank you from your Super Screener team.
Best of luck to you over the last two legs of the Triple Crown. And, by the way, could we have a Triple Crown winner in the making? He sure validated his Derby favoritism and “A” rating Saturday in an emphatic way.
Until next time: go fast and win!