Super Screener: Why to bet against Queen's Plate favorites

Saturday's $1 million Queen's Plate, the first leg of the Canadian Triple Crown, features a field of 16, with the only larger group annually seen in the Kentucky Derby. So there's value to be found, especially if you're playing against the favorites like Horse Racing Nation's Super Screener handicapping system.

Author Mike Shutty's Top 2 choices feature odds at or above 10-1 for the Woodbine feature, and he tells us he has "a lot of conviction" in selecting them. But why not the favorites? Let's find out.

Inspiration for the Super Screener Stakes Weekly analysis came from our loyal Triple Crown and Breeders’ Cup Super customers. They have often asked us for a product focused on analyzing the key graded stakes that run each weekend throughout the year.

What's offered here is a small sample of the full product, in which Shutty will also handicap top races on the Queen's Plate undercard, as well as U.S. stakes such as Churchill Downs' Grade 3 Bashford Manor.

When it comes to the 1 1/4-mile Queen's Plate, here's what Shutty thinks about the Top 3 morning line choices...

#10 Telekinesis is the horse to beat here at 5-2 on the morning line, but this colt will not benefit from a pressured, as opposed to modest pace. He will be on the front end with three others, and it is awfully difficult to win this race on the lead. Contender, but risk/reward proposition is poor. 

#11 Wonder Gadot has missed the Trifecta just once in her 11 starts. She has run well against top U.S. fillies, finishing a close second in the Kentucky Oaks. Will sit a perfect trip off the pace but in touch with the leaders and will continue on unleashing reserve energy for another on-the-board finish and possible win.

#7 Dixie Moon excels on the Tapeta surface and has defeated the boys before. Will track the pace and continue on with interest.  Added ground will be no problem, and she too projects to move forward here.  Very reliable sort especially "under."

Keep in mind that in the last three weeks:

• Shutty picked Bee Jersey to upset Mind Your Biscuits in the Met Mile

• He correctly selected Blue Prize over Farrell in the Fleur De Lis

• And he nailed the Ohio Derby exacta with Core Beliefs on top

Shutty doesn't project any of the above trio in the Queen's Plate exacta. To get his full race analysis, a rundown on every contender and wagering strategies, our full Super Screener product is available now.