Super Screener: Other other Baffert offers value in Debutante
A stacked Super Screener for Saturday includes nine stakes from Kentucky Downs and Del Mar with the Grade 1 Del Mar Debutante catching our eye for opposing Bob Baffert-trained, 8-5 morning-line favorite Explora.
Of course it is the other other Baffert who caught Shutty’s eye. That’s no issue considering the other other Baffert, defined as being the longest price of three separate entries, is 5-for-50 in stakes the past 10 years with an ROI of plus 32.4%. Both the shortest-priced Baffert and the other Baffert, defined as the second of three choices in the win pool, have negative returns on investment.
In the Del Mar Debutante, Bottle of Rouge, a Vino Rosso filly Baffert trains for his wife Natalie, is the Super Screener pick to upset Explora and Himika. Explora won her career debut by 4 3/4 lengths at 1-5 odds, and Himika already is a graded-stakes winner, having run her unbeaten streak to two with a Sorrento (G3) score. Both her wins came by a combined 10 1/4 lengths. Juan Hernandez sticks with Explora, and Kazushi Kimura picks up the mount on Himika. Hernandez rode Bottle of Rouge, too, but Mike Smith is up in the Debutante.
“Bottle of Rouge owns both the balanced energy-distribution profile advantage and distance edge,” Shutty said. “After finishing second to Himika in their debuts, she came back to crush a field at Del Mar, doing so at 6 1/2 furlongs while her aforementioned stablemates have yet to race beyond six furlongs. She was very ratable and was able to dole out her energy in a very balanced way, which sets her up well for taking on seven furlongs here. She is the value of the Baffert trio in an otherwise chalky race.”
Whatever happens here, there is a good chance the winner will be the favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies on Oct. 31 at Del Mar. With just eight weeks until the championships, Super Screener is in full swing. Subscribe now, and get all nine editions through Nov. 1, including the Breeders’ Cup plus daily Power Picks and Horses to Single reports.