Super Screener: Hidden Scroll's pace determines Florida Derby
Quick Guide to the 2019 Florida Derby
In either case, handicapper Mike Shutty isn't counting on a victory for Hidden Scroll, the 5-2 morning line favorite.
As for who he envisions winning the feature...
Should Hidden Scroll send quickly -- and that could well happen again with the colt having drawn the rail -- the first of Shutty's two "A" contenders will fall into an ideal trip.
"If the pace is solid, no horse is better prepared to get the 1 1/8-mile distance than Bourbon War," Shutty said. "He is begging for more ground, and no one will be running faster down the stretch than this one. Clearly, he's the most certain board-hitter in the race and the top win candidate given the pressured pace scenario."
Mark Hennig-trained Bourbon War exits a closing second in the Fountain of Youth at 1 1/16 miles and with a shorter stretch. After the wire, he galloped out past his competition.
But what if Hidden Scroll takes back a bit? Other than that one, Shutty sees two other horses contributing to the pace: the hopeless longshot Hard Belle and Maximum Security, his other "A" contender.
The Jason Servis-trained Maximum Security "has crushed inferior foes in all three starts while sprinting," Shutty said. "However, note that he has posted nearly 90-plus Brisnet Pace and Speed ratings in every slot in those three starts, which bodes well for the stretch out to hist first route.
"Form cycle analysis indicates he will move forward here. He is more of a presser or off-the-pace type, so most importantly he secures an ideal trip here."
Hidden Scroll is by no means a toss, with the Bill Mott trainee the only "B" horse in this field of 11. But that means Shutty's leaving the Fountain of Youth winner Code of Honor and Holy Bull Stakes (G2) hero Harvey Wallbanger off the top of his tickets.
Why? And how should you build wagers to cash big in the Florida Derby? Check out the full edition of the Super Screener today!