Super Screener: This Southwest Stakes rival can beat Mourinho

In Monday's Grade 3, $500,000 Southwest Stakes, the speedy, Bob Baffert-trained Mourinho heads back to Oaklawn Park to build on his runaway victory in the Smarty Jones Stakes, a race in which he had everything his own way against just four other rivals. While Mourinho deserves to be the favorite here, he’ll face an entirely different setup in that he will be joined in the front by at least three contenders all taking aim at him in a much larger field, and perhaps to be run on a wet surface. This “B” player among the Baffert 3-year-olds deserves to be in your exotic wagers, but he is not a cinch win this, and he’ll offer no value.

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With the pace set up projected to be quite pressured, on a surface that can be kind to horses on the outside that sit off the pace (even on a wet track), the Super Screener has landed on Combatant to turn the tables on Mourinho, against whom he finished a game second in the Smarty Jones Stakes. He gets a more favorable setup here and, as with Mourinho, he projects to take another move forward in his form cycle. Look for Combatant to be taken back two lengths or so off the pace leaders sitting in a very comfortable trip in the clear. He will offer far more value than Mournho and Sporting Chance. 

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