Super Screener: Street Band the Breeders' Cup Distaff's 'now' filly

On Saturday we witnessed a superb performance submitted by the 3-year-old filly Street Band as she powered past leg-weary foes via a wide but uninterrupted trip in the Cotillion Stakes (G1).

Horse Racing Nation’s Super Screener handicapping system favored her on the distance cutback, knowing Street Band would have more stamina for the stretch drive. But looking forward, the best part of the race came after the wire when the Larry Jones trainee continued on with strong energy. She’ll need that and more to contend for the win spot in the Breeders' Cup Distaff when she lines up against older foes via the “Win and You’re In” ticket punched at Parx.

Here’s what the Super Screener — which handicaps top races each weekend with a time-tested, data-driven approach — had to say about Street Band (one of two “A” horses in the race) before the Cotillion:

“Her best races have come with hot pace setups, something she did not get in the Alabama (G1), though she ran well enough to finish an up-close third after tracking the slow pace. Cutback in distance is a big plus here, and form cycle analysis indicates a new lifetime top coming in this race. Needs a clean trip but couldn’t ask for a better setup. Offers terrific value.”

Street Band shot by odds-on favorite Guarana (the other Super Screener “A” horse) once that formerly unbeaten rival flattened out having tracked a swift pace. Guarana looked like she needed this race but was clearly second best when finishing well ahead of the Super Screener’s “Top Longshot” Horologist, who arrived at the wire 3 ¼ lengths ahead of Bellafina.

At generous odds of 21-1, Horologist added great value on the bottom of trifectas, with the Super Screener determining her pre-race as “only a slight threat to the win spot, but as an under play she offers a lot to like…Getting really good at the right time. Use!”

With Street Band winning the Cotillion at 7-1 and Horologist rounding out the trifecta, the Super Screener suggested exacta and trifecta wagers combined for a return of just a couple dollars shy of $1,000.

In the bigger picture, the Cotillion has become a key prep for the Breeders’ Cup Distaff with top fillies from this race impacting the board in the last three editions.

In 2018, the Cotillion produced the Distaff winner Monomoy Girl and third-place finisher Midnight Bisou. In 2017, Abel Tasman exited the Cotillion to finish second in the Distaff. And in 2016, Songbird made her final prep at Parx before finishing a narrow second to Beholder.

From this year’s Cotillion renewal, only Street Band and Guarana appear to be Distaff candidates, with the former filly offering the best shot to impact the Breeders’ Cup.

This is based on how Street Band laid out energy during her journey Saturday. Sure, she received a lot of help from the pace setup, and she’ll be discounted by many as a result of those favorable conditions. But take a look at the Brisnet Pace and Speed Rating performance line that came back from Saturday’s effort:

This filly also has a distinct momentum edge cycling into her best career races now. That’s compared to her more senior rivals who will attempt to return to top performances already submitted earlier in their careers.

Right now, Street Band would be the choice over Midnight Bisou given the most-recent performances by both. Of course, Midnight Bisou — at 6-for-6 this season — has one prep left to run in this weekend’s Beldame (G2), but regardless of the results we’re expected to get a much higher price on Street Band in the Breeders’ Cup.

In her last, Midnight Bisou tracked a slow pace in Saratoga’ Personal Ensign (G1) before going on to defeat Elate by a nose when wide throughout.