Super Screener preview: Upset brewing in Aqueduct's Notebook

Michael Shutty is hoping to get his Super Screener six pack off to a quick start, bullishly picking against the morning line favorite in the Notebook Stakes on Saturday at Aqueduct.

The Notebook is one of six races Shutty covers this week, with two-thirds of those at Aqueduct and one stakes each from Churchill Downs and Del Mar. The Aqueduct coverage also includes a grid for the races 7-9 Pick 3. 

Post time for the Notebook as race 4 at Aqueduct is 1:19 p.m. EST, so be sure to be ready because Shutty does not list 2-1 morning line favorite #3 Aggelos the Great among three Top Win Contenders.

Instead, he most zeros in on no. 5 Wine Responsibility, a 6-1 morning line choice who Shutty expects to sit "the perfect stalking trip."

"He projects to get a midpack trip, which is perfect given the pressured pace set up," Shutty says. "However, if he ends up near the back of the field again, his chances will be compromised. Definitely demand odds of 6-1 or higher given the risk inherent with this pick."

Less risk but also less value is 5-2 morning line choice no. 6 Works For Me, "a confirmed sprinter that is on an orderly form-cycle ascent," Shutty writes.

No. 8 Always a Warrior, 12-1 on David Aragona's morning line, is the top long shot selection for this race.

"He owns enough speed to put himself in contention early in this race and then stay on with very strong energy reserve as he faces easier than he took on in his last two races," Shutty says. "That razor sharp penultimate work only adds more conviction to the pick as a viable win contender while offering a big price."

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