Super Screener: Natalma is best chance to beat Appleby

Saturday is a big day of racing at Woodbine, with a trio of Grade 1 races that not only are Breeders' Cup qualifiers but also top events in their divisions.

The three races also compose the $5 turf champions Pick 3, beginning with the Summer Stakes, continuing with the Natalma and concluding with the Woodbine Mile. All three are at a two-turn mile on the inner course.

This week's Super Screener handicaps the Natalma and Woodbine Mile as well as a quartet of stakes from opening weekend at Churchill Downs, including the kickoffs on the roads to the Kentucky Derby and Oaks, the Iroquois and Pocahontas, respectively.

We're setting our sights on the Natalma because of its important place on the Woodbine wagering menu as a key leg to that all-turf Pick 3 as well as the mandatory payout Pick 6. Many bettors will be complacent to use the logical horses in the hopes of moving on, but Mike Shutty is clear about Super Screener's preference.

"This race sets up to provide No. 10 Deep Learning from Chad Brown's barn with a race-flow advantage, as she will serve as the back marker in this race with the expectation that the pace comes back to her in a hurry," Shutty wrote. "She is the only filly in this race that has experience at a route, which is another advantage to go along with her run style.

"Form-cycle analysis results call for a move forward in this start. She has worked steadily since her debut win, and there is no reason to think Brown will not have her ready for a top performance here."

For those looking for a long shot, No. 8 Dyna caught the Screener's eye as a filly capable of moving forward as the distances get longer.

Super Screener is available weekly and includes selections, analysis and wagering strategy for each race. Subscribe to Super Screener now, and get all eight editions between now and Breeders' Cup plus daily Power Picks and Horses to Single reports.