Super Screener: Looking beyond the favorite in the Rebel

A $1 million purse and 85 qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby will be on the line Saturday when a field of 11 3-year-olds lines up for the Rebel Stakes (G2) at Oaklawn Park.

Newgrange for Bob Baffert, who improved to 3-for-3 when winning last month’s Southwest (G3) at Oaklawn, is the clear-cut 9-5 favorite on the morning line. Barber Road finished 1 1/2 lengths back of Newgrange in the Southwest and is the 9-2 second choice for trainer John Ortiz.

The Rebel is one of five stakes on Saturday featured in this week’s Super Screener, the time-tested and data driven handicapping method developed by author Mike Shutty. Like for the Southwest, Super Screener rates Newgrange as strictly the horse to beat. However, it also rates the race to have “moderate potential payoff” due there being a “value” horse in the lineup plus two live long shots.

Super Screener’s value play is Ben Diesel for Dallas Stewart, who is 8-1 on the morning line. The Will Take Charge colt was beaten 2 3/4 lengths by Newgrange when third in the Southwest.

Super Screener notes that in the Southwest, Ben Diesel “drew the rail and was stuck on the inside the entire journey and that was not the place to be.”

Ben Diesel, who will have regular rider Jon Court in the irons, drew post 7 this time around. Super Screener expects Court “to try to get this colt to relax off the pace and come from mid-pack with a big late run.”

Super Screener also has a pair of long shots at double-digit odds that it projects could at least impact the exotics.

For in-depth analysis, wagering strategies and more for stakes action from around the country Saturday, click here.

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