Super Screener: Value play and a long shot for Louisiana Derby
The $1 million Louisiana Derby (G2) at Fair Grounds on Saturday kicks off the final round of major preps for the Kentucky Derby, each of which provides a total 170 qualifying points towards the Run for the Roses.
Of the eight sophomores signed up for the 1 3/16-miles Louisiana Derby, six are exiting last month's Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds. This group includes the top-four finishers: Mandaloun, Proxy, Midnight Bourbon and O Besos; along with sixth-place finisher Rightandjust and Starrininmydreams, who was ninth. The new shooters are Hot Rod Charlie, who ships in from Southern California; and Run Classic, who closed with a flourish to earn his diploma at Fair Grounds on the Risen Star undercard.
In its analysis of the Louisiana Derby, Super Screener has identified both a "top value" play and "top long shot" that handicappers will not want to overlook. Figuring to offer the best value on Saturday is Midnight Bourbon.
Listed as the 5-1 fourth choice on the morning line, Midnight Bourbon dueled on a hot pace in the 1 1/8-miles Risen Star before being overtaken late and finishing 1 3/4-lengths adrift of Mandaloun. Super Screener noted Midnight Bourbon "did all of the work" in the Risen Star and "held on very gamely" to distance himself from the rest of the field.