Super Screener: Long shot highlights Sam F. Davis card

When Mike Shutty calls his shot in the email delivering the Super Screener each week, I pay attention.

So it went Friday morning when I opened this week's Super Screener and saw this message: "Really looking forward to the Pelican Stakes and the live 20-1 shot in Naughty Rascal."

All four of this weekend's Kentucky Derby points races are part of this weekend's Super Screener, which includes four other races. Saturday has the Sam F. Davis at Tampa Bay Downs and the Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis at Santa Anita as well as selected undercard stakes at both tracks plus the Ladies Sprint Stakes at Gulfstream Park.

It is the Tampa Bay card that includes Shutty's live long shot.

"if this field holds together as is, it could be the best wagering opportunity on the day in this Super Screener stakes lineup," Shutty wrote of the Pelican Stakes. "While the pace is projected to clock in at around par, the pace pressure will be on the heavy side with half a dozen horses running within two lengths of one another for most of the race.

"Sitting a perfect trip behind the wall of speed will be the Super Screener top win and top long-shot pick, no. 9 Naughty Rascal. This will be his second start off the nearly 10-month layoff. He needed that last race, which served as a great prep for this contest given how balanced he was in maintaining second place throughout. He is coming back pretty quick here, so that will limit how much he’ll move forward off that last start. But form-cycle analysis still projects as much as a 7-point leap, which puts him right on target to match his previous lifetime top and more than enough to upset this field."

Each race in Super Screener includes selections, analysis and wagering strategy. This week's edition also includes suggested Pick 3 plays at Tampa Bay Downs in a sequence that concludes with the Sam F. Davis.

This weekend is the first of 10 consecutive weeks of Derby preps. Subscribe to Super Screener and get every edition between now and Derby week (including the Kentucky Derby) for just $97. Plus as an added bonus, you'll receive daily Power Picks and Horses to Single reports.