Super Screener: Know the bias for Lexington Stakes bets
If planning to bet on Keeneland's Grade 3, $200,000 Lexington Stakes, tune in before Saturday's Kentucky Derby prep.
That's the advice of Mike Shutty, author of Horse Racing Nation's Super Screener handicapping system, given how Keeneland's dirt has played since the spring meet opened.
"If the clear speed bias that was in play last weekend remains," Shutty said, "then any horse trying to win this but is not on or near the lead as they turn for home is doomed."
Regardless, he adds that there's a lot to like about the favorite -- but also has a decent feeling about a longshot who could factor given Keeneland's speed bias.
In the Lexington, Anothertwistafate, the West Coast shipper, is squarely the one to beat.
The son of Scat Daddy "holds all the advantages here," Shutty said. "He cuts back in distance, gets on a speed-favoring track and has the pace advantage here, as he’ll pull forward those 100 Brisnet Late Pace figures he earned in his last two races.
"Anothertwistafate also picks up Javier Castellano and posted a sharp work before leaving for Kentucky. He lays out energy in a balanced way for a pace presser type. Top player."
But who should you bet with him? Sueno, the other contender in the field hoping to lock up a spot in the Kentucky Derby with a victory, is a logical one. Shutty proposed a longshot for the second spot in those exactas, too.
"Zenden did all the work up front in the Tampa Bay Derby, carving out swift fractions then tiring late but holding on for an up-close fourth," he said. "He moves forward about three to five points in his form cycle third off the layoff, should cut a pace not quite as fast as what he has in his last three races and gets the advantage of landing on a speed-friendly surface with a short stretch."
Shutty considers the son of Fed Biz a "dangerous value play on top and under."
Similar analysis for other runners in the field of 10 is now available, and subscribing to the Super Screener now will also lock you in for Shutty's Kentucky Derby analysis, which earned him the accolades to launch this weekly product. Get the Super Screener advantage today!