Super Screener: Justify would have held his own in San Felipe
On Sunday, the massive Bob Baffert-trained chestnut colt, Justify, served notice that he is the real deal and, despite his lack of seasoning, this Scat Daddy colt emerged as a top win contender in whatever final 2018 Kentucky Derby prep race to which he will be pointed. As a result of his flashy win in Allowance Optional Claiming company, Justify jumped to the the lowest-priced individual horse — passing both Bolt d’Oro and McKinzie — in the Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 3, which closed the same day as he ran to a 6 1/2-length victory at Santa Anita Park.
Is this lofty opinion regarding Justify’s chances in the Kentucky Derby...justified? We'll analyze using criteria from Horse Racing Nation's Super Screener handicapping tool, and we’ll close with using the Jerry Hollendorfer horse, Shivermetimbers, to offer us some clues on just how good Justify might be.
First, the knocks:
• Justify just debuted a month ago so he has no 2-year-old seasoning.
• Sunday’s Optional Claimer was just his second race, so if he is fortunate enough to earn a sufficient number of Kentucky Derby qualifying points in his final prep, he would be going into the first Saturday in May with just three lifetime races. Big Brown won the 2008 Kentucky Derby off just three lifetime starts, but he did have a race as a juvenile. Bodemeister finished a game second in the 2012 Kentucky Derby and, as with Justify, he did not have a start as a 2 year-old. But he did go into that Derby with more foundation, having four starts under his belt. The big question is not whether Justify is talented or no. It’s will he has sufficient foundation and enough energy in reserve to command that final, critical 1/8 of a mile in the Kentucky Derby against 19 other rivals with superior conditioning.
• His impressive victory on Sunday at Santa Anita was over a rare -- at least for California -- muddy, sealed track, and his breeding screams mud. So it came as no surprise that he would relish the going. In addition, Calexman set suicidal fractions, and Justify enjoyed the perfect off-the-pace trip as a result.
• Justify is a massive, late-developing colt that is finally growing into himself, and he will just get better with added ground.
• He won his debut laying out elevated energy levels throughout that 7 furlong race and in a very balanced way. That is definitely not easy to do. He then passed the two-turn test in his last race.
• The ease in which he blew by Shivermetimbers and then throttled down late in the stretch while drawing away was visually impressive.
• While he got the perfect trip, he was forced to lay out a ton of energy early and while the rest of the field was gasping at the end, Justify continued on finishing the final two furlongs in a solid but not flashy 26 seconds flat.
• He is clearly a colt with a good mind and a professional demeanor, which are key criteria possessed by most Kentucky Derby winners. That is just so rare for young horses with just two races to their name. His stablemate, Solomini, is probably just as talented right now but that colt is a bit of a head case and is still learning.
• It appears Mike Smith would be the horse’s jockey should he continue on to the Kentucky Derby. Interesting, considering Smith has first call on McKinze, who just beat Bolt d'Oro to the wire in the Grade 2 Grade San Felipe and is a Top 3 Kentucky Derby contender on just about everyone’s list.
Often, Comparative or Relative Handicapping can offer some clues as to how a sudden star like Justify compares to some of the more established top Kentucky Derby contenders. It’s not a perfect science by any means, but it is a very useful tool in case like this. Take a look at the Brisnet past performances for the horse that finished second to Justify in the Sunday’s race, Shivermetimbers:
Note that Justify defeated Shivermetimbers (who came off the Kentucky Derby trail) by 6 1/2 lengths in a race in which Shivermetimbers submitted a very similar effort to what he did in the Grade 3 Sham (same mile distance) when he finished 7 3/4 lengths behind McKinzie. Then back in October, Shivermetimbers finished 6 1/4 lengths behind McKinzie in a 7 furlong race.
Based on conducting this Comparative Handicapping — in which McKinzie and Justify defeated Shivermetimbers by similar margins in races in which Shivermetimbers ran nearly the same type of race — we can safely conclude that Justify would have been at least competitive to Bolt’ d’Oro and McKinzie in the San Felipe run the prior day… especially since the track was taking moisture even though it was listed as fast.
So, just when you thought the California contingent that includes Bolt d’Oro, McKinize and Solomini couldn’t get any stronger, add Justify to that impressive list as a viable Kentucky Derby contender that — while he has a lot to prove and overcome — the effort he submits and how he lays out energy in his final Derby prep will tell us everything we need to know about his chances in the Kentucky Derby.
Is he a Big Brown or Bodemeister in the making, or one of the dozens of lightly raced horses that flashed brilliance in their first few races only to be a no show come the first Saturday in May? Right now, he looks more like the former type from a barn that knows how to manage these young stars well. Let the debate continue — and I can’t wait for that next start in April.
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