Super Screener: Farrell upset-prone in Churchill's Fleur De Lis
Farrell has won seven of 15 career races, and she's 5-for-8 hitting the board at Churchill Downs. But Mike Shutty, author of Horse Racing Nation's Super Screener handicapping system, won't be betting the 3-1 shot in Churchill Downs' Fleur De Lis Handicap.
With a bid to the Breeders' Cup Distaff on the line Saturday, Shutty has honed in on one "A" horse to bet in the Grade 2, $200,000 feature.
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Farrell finished second behind a game winner in Salty last out in the Grade 1 La Troienne on Kentucky Oaks day. Despite getting the lone lead and setting the pedestrian pace, she was out-sprinted in the end. Here, she’ll get all kinds of pressure in the form of a “need-to-lead” type, Apologynotaccepted, that projects to duel with Farrell. In addition, Farrell will need to negotiate more ground, so a win here is unlikely. But don’t leave her off the board, as she is a gritty sort and has a good record on this surface.
Blue Prize is the Super Screener Top Win and Top Board Hitter pick. She’s a reliable sort that has never missed the Trifecta in six starts and she is 3-for-3 in the Exacta at Churchill Downs running against similar competition. She dueled through energy-depleting hot fractions last out but was game enough to hold on for second while the rest of the front runners were nowhere to be found. She gets back on a preferred fast track and will press more reasonable and comfortable fractions leaving plenty in the tank for that stretch run and she gets first run on closers. She makes for that perfect “key” horse to use in first and second in wagers.
Mopotism is one of a couple of horses here that will offer some value. Not the strongest win candidate here (though there is a slight chance her best could pull that off) but she is a solid “under” player at a price due to the fact that she’ll secure an ideal mid-pack trip behind all the speed and she meets easier than she has in her last three races. She’s better going shorter, but 1 1/8 miles is not completely out of her zone.
Awestruck has been on fire against easier as of late in one-turn events and now will face tougher while going two-turns and another 1/8 of a mile. Tall order, but she is bred to handle the added ground and she possesses one of the best form cycle patterns in this race.
So those are the top picks. But the Super Screener also features a full-field analysis, wagering strategies and who to use if you're playing multi-race wagers. To get this week's edition...