Super Screener: Bet this long shot in weekend Derby preps

The final major prep races for the Kentucky Derby are this weekend, and Super Screener is loaded for bear with selections, analysis and wagering strategy already available for the Wood Memorial Stakes, Blue Grass Stakes and Santa Anita Derby.

Subscribe now and get all 10 editions of Super Screener between now and (including) the Belmont Stakes, plus daily Power Picks and Horses to Single reports. This week's edition already includes the trio of Derby preps plus the Gazelle Stakes and will add other undercard races at the three tracks by Friday afternoon.

"Of the final major Kentucky Derby preps to be contested, the Wood provides the largest field, with 12 runners expected from the 13-horse field," Mike Shutty writes. "A live win contender who comes along with some risk is the top Super Screener score in this field: no. 8 Courting.

"He is coming out of two key races that were both contested at this 1 1/8-mile distance, which provides him with a distinct stamina advantage in this large field. Blinkers come off, and he is expected to be positioned mid-pack about four lengths off the pace with just three to make up on the pressured front runners as he hits the top of the stretch. He is another that is going to need to find more late-race stamina, but given he'll be able to reserve far more early energy in this race, that should provide him with a sharper kick in this just his second race of the year."

Super Screener tabs Courting as likely value in the win pool and sees no. 5 Ocelli as a potential long shot to really spice things up.

"He continues to gradually advance in his form cycle with each and every start," Shutty says of the Whit Beckman trainee who opted for this spot over the Blue Grass at Keeneland. "That form improvement is kind of hidden though because of his sixth-place finishes in each of his last two starts. His last start at nine furlongs helped add more foundation and blinkers come off as they have provided no value and may have been hurting his late-race effectiveness. He received no help whatsoever from the very slow pace setups in those last two starts. That changes here as he'll finally get a fast and pressured pace to close into. A very live long shot aided by a sharp work last out."