Super Screener: 'Best horse may not win' the American Oaks

In handicapping Saturday's Grade 1, $300,000 American Oaks, Mike Shutty came to a rare conclusion.

"The best horse may not win this race," said Shutty, author of Horse Racing Nation's Super Screener handicapping system.

That's because he's expecting a "dawdling" pace scenario that could prevent 3-1 morning line favorite Paved from getting to the wire first in the year's final top-level race run at 1 1/4 miles at Santa Anita Park.

So, who does Shutty like for a mild upset?

The Super Screener analyzes key races run each weekend throughout the year. What's offered here is a small sample of the full product, which also includes full-field analysis of Santa Anita's Robert J. Frankel Stakes (G3) and other top events around the country.

In the American Oaks, "On paper, second choice Californiagoldrush rates as the top player with a strong pace-adjusted final rating relative to this field," Shutty said. "She is 2-for-2 on this turf course, and she is begging for even more ground. The only knock is the 100-day layoff, as there were many options for 3 year-old fillies since then."

Shutty says the Neil Drysdale trainee is particularly dangerous because she's "very tactical, and without much pace on here she’ll be forwardly placed and may even control the pace."

Californiagoldrush is the lone "A" selection -- meaning a must-use in vertical and horizontal wagers -- in the American Oaks field. There's a potential longshot bomber he's suggesting underneath. For more on that, plus a more in-depth look at the American Oaks field and wagering strategies, check out the Super Screener today!