Super Screener: Arkansas Derby favorite ‘not invincible’

Saturday’s Grade 1, $1 million Arkansas Derby represents the final 2018 Kentucky Derby prep race of the year, and it features a rematch of the exacta finishers the last time the trail stopped at Oaklawn Park.

The Rebel Stakes (G2) 1-2 of No. 6 Magnum Moon and, directly to his left, No. 5 Solomini, will meet again. The former rival was the best on that day, getting a perfect trip and then drawing away easily with those big, long strides in just his third career race.

As with Santa Anita Derby winner Justify, Magnum Moon does not have a start in 2017. But unlike Justify, he’ll be coming into the Kentucky Derby with four versus three lifetime starts. He is the one to beat here and the softer pace sets up well for his balanced, pressing energy distribution style and his works in the morning continue to impress.

The deserved favorite and should handle the extra ground, but he is not invincible, according to Horse Racing Nation's Super Screener handicapping system.

Inspiration for the Super Screener Stakes Weekly analysis came from our loyal Triple Crown and Breeders’ Cup Super customers. They have often asked us for a product focused on analyzing the key graded stakes that run each weekend throughout the year.

What's offered here -- for free -- is only a small sample of the full product now available. This weekend's edition also covers other top stakes around the country.

Now, for that Arkansas Derby prediction…

The Super Screener top win pick will be Solomini who returned to racing action in the Rebel after being away for more than three months. He was clearly not fully cranked, and it showed as he chased Magnum Moon on that easy pace then got shuffled back a bit at the head of the stretch. There, he lost momentum, but he found his stride and then came on again grabbing second from Combatant, but was no threat to Magnum Moon.

This colt is massive and not the type that can stop and then quickly restart, so any break in this grinder’s momentum is going to have a negative impact. He really needed that last race and has submitted a solid series of works since then.

The Super Screener is projecting a big move forward here and the added ground will only work to his advantage. Odds of 2-1 or higher would represent very fair value. 

For full-field analysis, plus a wagering guide, check out HRN’s Super Screener today.