Super Screener: A value play in the Risen Star
The road to the Kentucky Derby heats up Saturday with the first 85-point qualifier in North America, the Risen Star Stakes (G2) at Fair Grounds.
A field of 10 classic hopefuls are set to go 1 1/8-miles with Derby points awarded to the top-four finishers on a scale of 50-20-10-5. Smile Happy, who will be making his first start since winning the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) last November for trainer Kenny McPeek, is the 7-2 morning-line favorite.
The Risen Star is one of seven stakes on Saturday highlighted in this week's edition of Super Screener, the time-tested, data-driven handicapping method developed by author Mike Shutty. Super Screener rates the Risen Star to have a "moderate payoff potential."
Smile Happy is the most reliable board-hitter in the field, according to Super Screener, but there is also solid value play at 5-1 on the morning line as well as a live longshot, who is 12-1 on the morning line.
Pappacap for Hall of Fame trainer Mark Casse was beaten less than a length when third in last month's Lecomte (G3) behind winner Call Me Midnight and Epicenter, who is also back in the Risen Star. Prior to that effort, Pappacap was second in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile.
According to Super Screener, Pappacap offers the "top value" while making his second start off a layoff.
"He'll sit a great trip saving ground throughout while reserving energy to be released over that final key furlong," Super Screener proclaims. "His balance and breeding indicate that 9 furlongs is well within his range. Sharp works leading up to this and he bring recency advantage into this race over the three other "A" horses."
In addition to in-depth analysis and wagering strategies for stakes action from across the country, this week's Super Screener also provides a recommended play for the late Pick 5 at Fair Grounds. To take your handicapping to the next level, click here.
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