Super Screener: 6-1 value play beckons in the Monmouth Stakes
Monmouth Park takes the spotlight Saturday with a deep 14-race card featuring four stakes, including a trio of Grade 3 events on what's dubbed "Haskell preview day."
In this week's Super Screener, the time-tested and data-driven handicapping method developed by author Mike Shutty, horseplayers are offered in-depth analysis and wagering strategies for each of the four Monmouth Park stakes plus recommended plays for the late Pick 5.
Among the four stakes carded for the Jersey shore is the $150,000 Monmouth Stakes (G3) going 1 1/8-miles on turf, which attracted a contentious field of 12 colts and gelding. The morning-line favorite is graded-stakes winner Sacred Life for trainer Chad Brown, who was installed at 3-1. Stablemate Public Sector is next at 7-2 in the program for Brown.
While Super Screener rates Public Sector as the "most reliable board hitter," it is looking past Sacred Life. Instead, it has pegged TD Dance (6-1) as both its "top win contender" and "top value."
T D Dance will be making his first start for trainer Jason Barkley after previously being with Brad Cox through the first nine starts of his career. The 4-year-old Can the Man colt was a stakes winner last year for Cox, but has been winless in three starts so far this campaign. Most recently, T D Dance was third, beaten just a head, in a high-level allowance at Keeneland on April 20.
From Super Screener: "This lightly raced but productive 4-yr-old...has missed the superfecta just once. His overall form continues to trend forward with his greatest advancements coming over his last 3 starts. Not sure what prompted the barn change but assuming this horse is in good condition (and strong works appear to confirm that assumption) he projects to hold that current top form and even move forward a bit.
"What is most value in this horse is that he owns both balance and a strong turn of foot making him very tactical which explains why he is always around the money. In this race, he’ll sit a great mid-pack trip with just 3 lengths to make up on the leaders as he hits the top of the stretch. This one might get lost in the wagering a bit which would work to our advantage."