Super Screener: 4 must-bet Risen Star Stakes contenders
Last week, Mike Shutty, author of Horse Racing Nation's Super Screener handicapping system, labeled Admiralty Pier, a 21-1 longshot winner of the Tampa Bay Stakes (G3) as a top longshot and top play; Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) winner Sole Volante as his top value horse; had the runner-up Independence Hall as the most reliable board hitter; and the third-place finisher Ajaaweed as a vulnerable favorite.
We'll see if he can carry over some of that magic to the next stop on the 2020 Kentucky Derby trail, split divisions of Saturday's Risen Star Stakes (G2). The Super Screener, which handicaps top stakes races each weekend using time-tested, data-driven methods, sees Fair Grounds' features differently.
Accordingly, Shutty lists three contenders in the field of 11 as "A" horses for your tickets. Each exits a local prep at 1 1/16 miles.
• No. 1 Digital "ran super last out," Shutty says, in a Jan. 18 allowance where Risen Star rival Blackberry Wine re-rallied after setting a soft pace. Shutty expects Digital "will continue to advance in his form cycle here, as he has improved in each race against stronger while going longer. Sharp recent works add more confidence."
• No. 2 Silver State, who took back behind a modest pace in the Lecomte Stakes (G3), rallied wide for a runner-up finish off the layoff. "He draws well and will sit closer here while saving ground," Shutty said. "He will appreciate the added ground here while moving forward in his form cycle. Reliable player."
• No. 8 Enforceable was another forced to rally in the Lecomte. In going on to win, he established himself as a Derby hopeful, and being that he was wide throughout, "figures are better than what they show," Shutty said. "He will also relish more ground and has enough turn of foot to overcome the average pace."
As for Risen Star Division 2, Race 13 at 7:12 p.m. ET, Shutty notes that "it has been a long time since a pace horse won this race." He expects the fractions to be swift and pressured, giving an advantage to a lone "A" horse who figures to press the early leaders.
• With No. 8 Anneau d'Or, it's "tough to find any knocks in this California shipper," Shutty said. "He nearly won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile laying out elevated energy in a very balanced way and came back to finish second to the highly regarded Thousand Words. He adds blinkers and will welcome more ground. Anneau d'Or hasn’t faced this easy since his debut win, plus recent works are long and strong."
In the full Super Screener available today, Shutty similarly comments on all 23 horses entered for the Risen Star, detailing the "screening criteria" behind his top selections. Wagering strategies and suggested tickets are included.